Wednesday, 7 March 2012

Not a bad return.........

There have been a lot of results since the last update but I’ll cover off the weekend and midweek results at once. There have been 279 system bets in total, so a lot to get through.

In summary, it was a disappointing weekend really with a very low strike rate for the base algorithms again. However, things clicked last night with a much higher strike rate and some nice priced winners too, so it has helped get things back on track after a difficult spell.

Algorithm one has had 35 bets. 10 winners, 9 draws and 16 losers doesn’t exactly look like a decent return will have been achieved but it includes some nice priced winners. Overall, a profit of 8.00pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.20pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 25 bets in the same period. 9 winners, 6 draws and 10 losers. A much better performance from this algorithm and it overtakes algorithm one as the best performing algorithm this season. A profit of 14.48pts for H/A betting and a profit of 10.94pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three has had 31 bets in the period. 9 winners, 11 draws and 11 losers. An unbelievable number of draws really but thankfully, plenty of winners too. A profit of 13.24pts for H/A betting and a profit of 13.04pts for DNB betting. You can see the draw helped the DNB returns here.

Basically, due to the fact the base ratings have had a decent period, then this should be reflected in the systems making profits and thankfully, this is the case.

The established systems made a profit of 42.95pts for H/A betting and 22.16pts for DNB betting. This was from 134 bets, so a decent ROI was also achieved in the period.

The new systems made a profit of 54.59pts for H/A betting and 45.60pts for DNB betting. This was from 145 bets, so again, a very healthy ROI has been achieved.

Overall, a profit of 97.54pts for H/A betting and 67.76pts for DNB betting from 279 games. An ROI of 35.0% for H/A betting and an ROI of 24.3% for DNB betting.

This isn’t a bad return for the last two sets of fixtures……………

The next bets will be on the blog on Friday evening as usual.


  1. Nice return, do you think the bad weather had much of a bearing on the poor run a few weeks ago?

  2. Hi Anonymous.

    I’ll be honest and say No, I don’t think it did. I think we just experienced some variance and when you are backing at bigger odds, then you are more likely to hit losing runs. Of course, for most systems or strategies, that leads people to question whether the edge still exists and whether it’s the start of some dreaded losing run that will effectively cause you to go bankrupt.

    I’m pretty lucky in the sense that my systems now have over 6,500 proofed results and over 25,000 backtested/proofed results over the last 6 seasons. I also have another 15,000 results for the period 2000-2006 which were used in the curve fitting. Therefore, I’m pretty confident that when we see a poor spell hit the systems, then it’s not really anything other than a bit of variance.

    That doesn’t stop me losing confidence though but confidence is a fickle thing in gambling. A few weeks ago, I was betting expecting to lose which was a sign of the lower confidence I had at that point in time but did I ever think that the systems were now useless? No, it never crossed my mind! Systems with the sort of returns mines achieve aren’t going to lose the edge overnight.

    At the start of this season, people said I couldn’t post the bets on a public blog and expect people to make money as the edge would vanish. 3,600 bets later and I think I’ve made these people eat their words a little.

    Anyway, cheers for the comment.


  3. Hello Greame,

    I saw your service on SBC, how do i follow your service? - and what should i be aware of about banking and stuff.

    Best regards
    Eric / sevenflow @ SBC

  4. Hi Eric.

    I’ll do a quick post on this on the blog as a few people have asked similar questions or emailed me in the past week or so.

    In summary, the best way to follow the bets is via the blog at the moment. I’m not wanting any more email subscribers for this season with only two months of the season to go. Two months is too short a time to judge the performance of the systems, so if I let people join now and they start following the bets seriously, they could easily lose in the short-term which will paint a negative picture of the service and me also if I’ve charged a small fee for this pleasure. I don’t want to add people to the email list for free either as it is unfair on my current subscribers.

    The bets appear on the blog at 6pm on a Friday and 9am on a Tuesday. Hence, anyone following can find the bets on here then.

    In terms of betting banks, it depends on what systems you choose to follow. If it is the 6 combined systems (6-21 to 8-22), then a bank of circa. 200pts will be fine. You just stake 1pt on each team that appears, so 6pts on a 8-22 bet effectively.

    If you are only following one or two systems, then you can see the historical drawdowns before this season on the tabs at the top of the blog. That discusses which betting bank you could use for each system. If you want to check anything with me, just drop me an email.

    Only word of warning would be that traditionally, the last few months of the season aren’t necessarily the most profitable for the systems. Hence, it’s not an ideal time to start following the bets in my opinion.

    Hope this makes sense.


  5. Heya graeme, I have a relative small bank, so what system do you think i should follow of those avaible? - and btw i wonder, when do your new season start, and when does this end?

    Thanks alot for your time!

    Best regards

  6. Hiya Eric. It's difficult to suggest a system or set of systems to follow as so many are at a peak at the moment and therefore, it is easy to jump on at a peak I suspect.

    The safest system historically is system 7-22 and it has around a 35% ROI this season. I've always said if people want one system to follow, this would be it. Following a system midway through a season which has a 35% ROI may be asking for trouble though.

    The season ends in May for me and starts again in September. Hence, around 7-8 weeks of bets left.

    Hope this helps.