Another two betting days this weekend, another two losing days. A quick look at my own P&L this month and it shows bets on 9 days this month with only 2 winning days and 7 losing days. My ROI on the month is 7%, so it doesn’t tell the whole story (number of winning days doesn’t matter in the long-run) but as I keep saying, this game does feel like hard work at the moment.
Since I returned from my honeymoon at the start of Feb, I’ve had bets on 19 days, 14 losses and 5 wins. Only making a profit on 26% of the days is pretty low and again, it doesn’t tell the whole story as the portfolio of systems I follow has made a profit over this period. However, I am starting to feel like I can do with a break and unfortunately, I’m in the middle of a very busy period, so I just need to keep ploughing on but I’m already starting to look forward to the Summer!
I think one issue I have is that I’m very anal when it comes to results updating. I can tell you how much I’ve won or lost on a particular day over the past 5 years now (racing, footie, golf etc.) and tracking a daily P&L is probably not the best thing when things aren’t going your way. It feels like a lot of hard work for not a lot of return at times. Long-term though, the picture remains rosy!
If I look at the results from the weekend, again, I can’t argue with the fact that my ratings are finding value bets but no matter how good they are, you need something to go your way in the short-term with the odds I’m playing at but at the moment, not much is going my way.
Tamworth at odds of 6.00, Tranmere at odds of 6.00, Burnley at odds of 4.18 and Coventry at odds of 4.00. 4 fairly big priced aways, 4 draws and ultimately, 4 losers for the systems. I don’t think anyone can argue that these teams weren’t value bets but I just need one of them to win and it turns a losing weekend into a profitable one. Again though, it didn’t happen and therefore, it’s another small loss on the weekend.
Algorithm one had 15 bets, 5 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 1.08pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.14pts for DNB.
Algorithm two had 11 bets, 2 winners, 4 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 4.83pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.64pts for DNB.
Algorithm three had 16 bets, 4 winners, 6 draws and 6 losers. A loss of 5.09pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.27pts for DNB.
Losses on all 3 algorithms will mean the systems had a bad weekend I’m afraid.
The established systems lost 12.7pts for H/A betting and 6.3pts for DNB betting. Considering the base algorithm results, only losing 12.7pts seems like an achievement.
Unfortunately, the new systems didn’t escape anywhere near as well. The new systems lost 33.6pts for H/A betting and 21.7pts for DNB.
There you go, a fairly quiet weekend but when things don’t go your way, a pretty substantial loss on the systems this weekend. The systems started the month well but the constant losses has seen most of the profits evaporate as we’ve moved through the month. So much so that the month now hangs in the balance again and another bad midweek and the month will be loss making all of a sudden.
I’m sure some people will point out that it’s possibly the ‘second half of the season syndrome’ showing its teeth and maybe this is the start of things to come over the remaining weeks of the season and therefore, I should expect to lose from here on in. We’ll see what happens.
Next bets will be on the blog tomorrow at 9am. There is a busy midweek card and there will be a fair number of system bets.