Sunday, 25 March 2012

Nine in a row........

Another 2 days, another 2 small losses. That makes it 9 losing days in a row. (The new systems ensured an overall profit was made on the systems this weekend but I’m judging this losing run on the 6 combined systems which is what I’m being proofed at and what I’m following at the moment).

I had a wee moan on the last results post about the lack of things going my way and so often this month, good days have been turned into small losing days due to late goals. Well, the systems got their own back this weekend as a big losing weekend turned into a small losing weekend due to a very late Forest Green goal going my way. Long overdue and I could do with a few more like this!

I try my best to not just look at the system results and try to look one step beyond this when assessing the performance of the systems over a set of fixtures. So often this month, the betting days have been much better than it looked on the final P&L. Well, this weekend, it was much worse than it looked at the end of the day. The systems deserved to lose badly as they were a good bit off in a number of games. A couple of defeats turned into draws late on which helped paint a better picture for AH bettors but let’s not paper over the cracks, it was a rubbish weekend again.

It’s very hard to put my finger on what’s going on. I’m feeling quite helpless at the moment and it’s a similar position I was in last year at this time. I just need to keep doing the work, keep churning out the system bets and hope to God that things turn and the systems get back into some sort of form.

The overall ROI for The Football Analyst service (the 6 combined systems) has now dropped below 15% over 1,848 bets which is slightly disappointing but it’s all relative I guess. It’s proving a tougher season than last season so far for my systems but I know from looking around that others using football ratings haven’t had anywhere near the season I’ve had to date, so I’m trying my best to keep looking at the bigger picture. Easier said than done on a blog like this which is discussing the results from every set of fixtures!

Anyway, here’s the breakdown for this weekend.

Algorithm one had 19 bets. 5 winners, 7 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 2pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.5pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 17 bets. 5 wins, 5 draws and 7 losers. Exactly break-even for H/A betting and a profit of 0.5pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 14 bets. 5 wins, 5 draws and only 4 losers. A profit of 6.5pts for H/A betting and a profit of 5.96pts for DNB betting.

A really good performance from the new algorithm this weekend. Managed to catch Hartlepool and Rangers which no other system caught unfortunately!

The established systems made a loss of 8.4pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.25pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a profit of 15.05pts for H/A betting and a profit of 17.94pts for DNB betting.

Overall then, the run for the established systems continues and in particular, the run for the combined systems.

The combined systems have managed to make a profit for 5 months straight this season and 12 months in 15 live months. However, they are currently down in March and therefore, it’s looking like an end to this winning streak. Of course, I don’t want to judge the systems over a month spell and neither should anyone else but I’ve been really proud of this run for these systems. Hopefully they can pull something out of the bag in the midweek fixtures and the weekend fixtures but given the current form of the systems, I’m not sure it will happen really.

Be back at 9am on Tuesday with the midweek bets.

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