Saturday, 29 December 2012

Absolute Rubbish!

It’s difficult to know where to start with this update. OK, firstly, I should point out that there are two bets outstanding this weekend. I have St Mirren to win tomorrow in Scotland and I have Over 2.5 goals in the QPR game. For this update, I have assumed both bets lose as I have assumed St Mirren lost and there were under 2.5 goals in the other game. If either of these things are incorrect, I’ll obviously tweak the results but it’s just easier if I assume these results for this update. Saves me from having to update after tomorrow’s games and means I can draw the month to a close tonight.

This update covers the weekend before Christmas, Boxing Day games and then the games this weekend. To say it has been a massacre wouldn’t be understating things I think. It has been a torrid time and at times like this, you do look at some of the systems and think they’re defying the laws of probability by hitting so many losers in a short space of time.

This is probably about the tenth time in two and a half seasons I’ve said this but these systems can look like the best betting systems ever when things are going well but when things don’t go well, you do think to yourself, these are the worst systems I’ve ever seen.  I suspect after the last couple of fixtures, I’m not alone in thinking that the systems are rubbish!

As always, you do need to try to keep perspective where possible but even so, this latest setback, on the back of various setbacks over the last few months have some systems looking like they are in for a horrendous season.  Systems 7-22 and 8-22 fall into this category. Both came into the season with ROI’s of 20%+ over the last two seasons but both are well down on the season now. Both actually started the season Ok, so it has been a dramatic fall from grace for these systems over the last few months.

One issue with having so many systems is that it’s difficult for me to know how everyone is doing this season. I suspect people fall into two camps now. Those who stuck with the tried and tested systems this season will be paddling fast to keep themselves afloat and to save themselves from sinking. Anyone else who took a punt with any of the other UK systems (or even in addition to these established systems) will be doing OK. If anyone could foresee the troubles the Est systems would have had this season, then they’re doing better than me at this game I suspect!

OK, so onto the results update.

Established Systems

This actually quite amusing in a sad sort of way but the strike rate says it all. 39 winners from 207 bets. You don’t need me to tell you that is piss poor for a set of systems and it’s a disgraceful run of form. I can pick out a few highlights for you….

System 6 – 4 winners in the last 28 bets at average odds of 3.59
System 7 – 2 winners in the last 15 bets at average odds of 2.69
System 8 – 1 winner in the last 9 bets at average odds of 2.67
System 21 – 5 winners in the last 24 bets at average odds of 3.75
System 22 – 2 winners in the last 13 bets at average odds of 2.99

Obviously, the combined systems just take these bets and cross refer them, so the results on the combined systems aren’t going to be any good when the base ratings are throwing out these results!

System 6 is on a drawdown of 15.1 (30.1), System 7 is on a drawdown of 23.1 (29.7), system 8 is on a drawdown of 14.1 (24.4), system 21 is on a drawdown of 12.0 (27.9) and system 22 is on a drawdown of 17.6 (25.6). 

The figures in brackets for the drawdowns are the max drawdowns the systems have experienced historically.  As you can see, no system is at a max drawdown and of course, betting banks are set based on a multiple of the max drawdown, so there is a long way to go before the systems are busting betting banks but even so, it’s not a pretty run of form for these systems.

Since the last update then, a loss of 81.36pts from 207 bets. A shocking return and basically guarantees the second losing month in a row for these systems. I find it amazing that a set of systems can have 10 winning months in a row and then follow it with two shocking months one after another. I’ll save the observations for the monthly report!

Interestingly, the AH returns aren’t quite as bad but they are still poor. Therefore, you can’t even say draws were to blame for this terrible run of form. Quite simply, the teams haven’t been performing as the ratings suggested they would.

Surely to fuck the systems are due some winners…..errr…we’ll see.

New Systems

Compared to the Est systems, these systems look like they’ve been having a good time of it lately. A loss of 37.44pts from 242 bets. Hardly a good spell but 75 winners from 242 bets is a lot better than 39 from 207!

The base ratings aren’t having a great time of it at all though. System 31 has had 4 winners in 23 bets and 41 has had 5 winners in 24 bets. Terrible spells and just about sums up the way things have been going lately.

What I would say in the defence of these systems is that they haven’t had nearly as bad a season as the Est systems have had and therefore, I can’t be too harsh on these systems for this update. It’s never good to lose money but anyone following these systems so far this season and rolling in money, so a poor couple of sets of fixtures won’t do too much damage.

Misc Systems

A shocking performance from these systems over the last couple of sets of fixtures too. Only 34 winners from 130 bets and a loss of 26.75pts. I guess the positive for these systems is that they didn’t have as many bets as the other systems, so that has helped to limit the damage!

A similar comment applies to these systems as the last set though. Anyone following these systems this season (they have saved my portfolio this season so far!), isn’t going to be too concerned with a poor spell at the moment. The systems have actually had a profitable month and remain profitable this season, so we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt at the moment.

The biggest drawdown at the moment on any of the systems is on 6-21-31 and it is only 12.9pts. I say only but compared to the other drawdowns on many other systems, 12.9pts seems like a result! :(

Under/Over Systems

It’s not very often I do a results post where the best results are on these systems! A loss of 0.42pts from 28 bets isn’t too bad and compared to the other systems, it looks good! It may even look better as the system has a free shot at the QPR game tomorrow as I already have that down as a loser, so it could be a little better than a small loss.

Euro Systems

Not for the first time this season, these systems showed absolutely nothing during a set of fixtures. These systems are something of an enigma if I’m honest and they are so hit and miss. They either seem to hit lots of big priced winners or hit absolutely nothing. Very hard to fathom but maybe once we see more bets in the second half of the season, things will settle down. The Euro bets always have more bets after Christmas than before, so the Euro bets have a helluva lot of bets still to come this season whereas the UK bets are halfway through the season now.

Only 19 winners from 88 bets and a loss of 33.3pts. AH betting was even worse with higher losses!

I guess the only positive for these systems is that they have had a break over the Festive Period, so losses were capped!  They’ll be returning soon though….. :o

I need a calculator for this but I make it a loss of 179.27pts from 695 bets for this update. Based on the figures to the end of Nov-12, this is 50% of the season’s profits gone in one fell swoop. Quite amazing how bad the systems can do during a bad spell……

Not long to go till the next set of bets, New Years Day will soon be here. Gulp!!!!!

Next blog update will be the monthly update for Dec-12. Won’t make pretty reading for any of us following the systems.  :(

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