Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Quick High Level Analysis of UK Bets This Season

I had a few minutes at lunch today and a couple of people have asked me to pull together some stats in the last few days for them.  Given I’m very busy at work at the moment and I’m spending all my spare time keeping the football ratings ticking along as well as issuing the bets and placing my own bets, then it’s asking a bit much for me to do pieces of individual analysis throughout the season for subscribers. I don’t mind doing bits and pieces of high level analysis though as it interests me as well as others to look at trends and what is happening this season.

So, the two pieces of analysis I’ve been asked to do were the profitability of all UK systems split between Home and Away bets and the profitability by league. I think the hypothesis was that Home bets aren’t doing well (correct) and that League Two is losing us a fortune this season (incorrect!).

Here’s the proof below.

To be fair to the subscriber who asked about League Two, my hypothesis would be that the Established systems have had a terrible time with League Two bets this season as lots of highly rated bets haven’t performed as expected in League Two this season. I’m sure I mentioned this in an email recently as someone else had pointed it out to me also.

Anyway, here’s the proof that my hypothesis is correct! :)

Can we draw any conclusions from the above? Well, I’m interested in what is causing League Two to be so bad. I would have guessed it would be the Home bets but as you can see below, it is the away bets!

16 winners from 91 bets is shocking really and even if I was trying to find teams to lay, I doubt I could do as well as this in the long-run! A -35% ROI is something you don’t see very often on football betting.

Not sure any of the above means much as 3 months isn’t a lot of time but historical evidence leads me to believe that Homes tend to do much better than Aways, so that’s the biggest concern this season so far. Surely we’re due a run of winners with the Home bets………if only it was that easy!

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