Saturday, 29 December 2012

December Review

I jinxed myself last month by saying that before that month, the monthly reviews were boring as it was profits every month. Well, safe to say we don’t need to worry too much about profits this month either which is a shame. I wish I could just get back to monthly reviews where there were big profits every month. I know it’s boring winning all the time but boy, it is better than losing all the time!

I’ll do as I usually do and go through each set of systems one at a time. (There are still two outstanding results as stated on the last post. I’ll obviously update the results sheets for these results tomorrow night but this is assuming both bets lose).

Established Systems

A month that started well for these systems but the Festive period was a nightmare (see last blog post for gory details!). Overall though, a loss on the month of 40.2pts if betting outright from 403 bets. This is the second losing month in a row after a 12pt loss last month. The 40pts lost is actually the 5th worst month since Sep-06 and is the 4th worst month since the systems went live. Very disappointing but maybe it was overdue (I said that last month though!). The systems were showing a level of consistency I didn’t think was possible over a calendar year and maybe some sort of correction is happening now.

We all know this is irrational and ultimately, every month and every bet even is independent of what has happened before but I do think at times, you can’t continue to win forever without the odd blip happening now and again. Let’s just hope we’re over the blip now!

The combined systems lost a massive 26.4pts in the month and that makes it the second losing month in a row for these systems too. These systems are basically break-even for the season now which is disappointing to say the least.

I think I should make a little mention of the draw this month. As you can see, if using AH0.5, it was actually a small profit on the month and that shows the draw has been a menace this month.

In terms of the individual systems, the base ratings didn’t do badly again this month. System 6 lost 1.3% but system 21 made a profit of 16.7%. They combined to give a profit of 8.2% on system 6-21. This is a great base to work from but for the umpteenth time this season, the higher systems made a mess of things in a massive way and this has summed up the season to date.

So far this season, systems 6, 21 and 6-21 are profitable and are having decent seasons. My ratings are working as well as they have always done and arguably, they are doing better than last season. However, narrowing down the bets has been very difficult and this is where the issue lies this month again.

6-22 made a loss even though 6-21 was a profitable subset to choose bets from and the same applies to 7-21. 7-21 took the 71 bets on 6-21, selected 33 and turned an 8.2% profit into a 33% loss. Hard to believe tbh but it is consistent with previous months this season. Goes against everything we learnt in the first two seasons though.

7-22 only hit 2 winners from 12 which is shocking and 8-21 and 8-22 had a disaster too again this month.

If this was the first season these systems had been alive, you would seriously be doubting the ability of these systems to narrow down the bets but as the systems have shown for 2 seasons, they do a brilliant job of narrowing down the best bets (or at least, they did until Oct-12!).

I think we just need to continue to keep an eye on things and in the grand scheme of things, I’m sure 7-22 and 8-22 look OK if we take into account the previous results but the longer this run goes on, the more worrying it is for all of us!

New Systems

I feel like I can’t be too harsh on these systems considering it’s their first live season but basically, they have suffered their first monthly loss this season. (NB. If St Mirren win tomorrow, this won’t be the case!)  Even so, a loss of 5.1pts from 537 bets isn’t a disaster by any means and considering the first 3 months were profitable, I can live with a small loss this month.

Interestingly, the combined systems made a small profit this month, so that’s 3 months out of 4 for these too in terms of profit as the combined systems suffered a small loss in Oct-12 if I remember rightly.

Looking at the individual systems, there isn’t much to say. The largest loss was 4.9pts and the largest profit was 6.1 on system 31-41. Interestingly, 31 and 41 were both loss making but 31-41 was the best system. A great advert for the way the systems work!

I feel like I should point out the fact the AH returns improved the more draw coverage you had. Clearly, the draw played some part in the poor performance this month but in previous months, the draw didn’t impact these systems when it impacted other systems, so it’s swings and roundabouts.

Overall, a solid enough month for these systems and if this is a bad month for these systems (bearing in mind the good months were +121 and +76), then we can take a small loss.

Misc Systems

Given the mess that every other system has made this month, it says a lot (and I mean a lot!) that these 6 systems all made a small profit this month. Not only that,  the results for outright betting were the same overall as using AH0.5. This is pretty rare and it shows that the systems were impacted by too many draws this month and yet, they still made profits. An exceptional performance.

A profit of 28.4pts from 287 bets. Doesn’t look like a great month but when other systems are losing 10% in a month, to win 10% is very good! 

One thing that has separated the established systems from other systems has been their ability to dodge the really bad days but this season, it is these Misc systems that have done this the best. As I’ve written a fair few times on the blog, I had great faith in these systems last season and they let me down. I took a gamble this season by keeping these systems as part of my portfolio and so far, I’ve been repaid handsomely. Obviously, it’s not ideal that a set of miscellaneous systems are holding up my portfolio this season but that’s the beauty of portfolio betting. If you follow enough different bets that aren’t correlated, then you can hopefully smooth out the P&L a little and so far, it has been this way this season.  I still believe the Est systems are better systems and come season end, it will be interesting to see where the Misc Systems end up in comparison.

Under/Over Systems

A bit of a nothing month for these bets. A loss of 0.9pts on the month from 56 bets. (NB. This assumes a loser tomorrow. If this wins, it will be a small profit on the month).

It was a small profit for the Over system, offset by a loss on the Under system. They have followed this pattern for most of this season, where the Over system has been the most profitable system. Last season, they finished neck and neck in terms of ROI but the Over system has really struggled to find a decent number of bets this season if I’m honest. However, it has made up for it with a much better ROI, so it’s swings and roundabouts again.

I keep saying it but for me personally, these systems don’t do much for me at all. However, I know a few people are following them this season and are doing OK I think, so they’ll remain part of the overall portfolio as long as there is some demand for them.

Euro Systems

I didn’t think I’d be saying this too often this season but these systems have been the star performer this month. They really are hit and miss on any day and they are as likely to hit no winners as hit a few big priced winners but so far, they are proving profitable and that’s all that matters.  A great month with a profit of 80.7pts from 329 bets. An ROI of 24.5%.

A great performance but the most interesting stat by far is that backing AH0.5 made a loss of 47.6pts! Clearly, the teams either won or lost this month which shows how thin a line there is at times. It’s very rare to see such a variance in performance and clearly, anyone using AH betting on these bets probably lost in the month even the systems had a decent month!

The worst performing system was E3-E7 which is meant to be the best system but E2-E7 had an ROI of 59% this month, so depending on what systems you follow, it could have been a good month or a great month or even a losing month!


I was actually surprised when I did this calculation for this month. Overall, it was a profit of 62.9pts from 1,612 bets.  Yeah, I’m sure many reading this are as surprised as me! Having just did a post with the Festive results which showed a loss of 170pts which was 50% of the season’s profits to date (to the end of Nov-12), it basically means that in the first half of December, the systems made in excess of 50% of the season’s profits to that point. It’s funny, it’s a great advert for not getting too carried away with short term losses as you soon forget about the profits you’ve just made before the losses occurred.

I think the reason things feel worse is because the losses are being generated on the Est Systems which make up the largest chunk of my betting portfolio and for many people following, this is their betting portfolio. Hindsight is wonderful at this game as I’ve said many times and I’m sure if we wound the clock back to the start of this season, we’d all be looking to diversify our portfolios much more and not choose to follow a very small selection of systems from one set of ratings.

Of course, on the other hand, the systems which are carrying most money are meant to be the ones which have the most proofed results and therefore, maybe I’m asking for a lot to have taken more of a punt with other systems but I’m sure I would have diversified even more if given the chance again. I suspect I’m not the only one thinking along these lines……

Next post should be an update of the season to date. We’ll call it half season review.

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