Sunday, 2 December 2012

November 2012 Review & Season Update

Time for another monthly review. When I think back to the first two seasons, most of the monthly reviews were pretty boring as profits were made on most of the systems, the combined systems were much better than the single systems and of course, systems 7-21 to 8-22 wiped the floor with most of the other systems that were proofing live results. How times change……..

As usual, I’ll just work through each set of systems and try to pick out any highlights. The Excel sheet with the figures will be sent to subscribers as usual but I’ve pasted the tables below which can still be seen I hope.

Established Systems

A tricky month again for these systems and unlike last month, they didn’t manage to sneak a profit. A loss of 12.3pts from 436 bets if backing outright. Small profits were made if using some form of draw coverage on all the bets but it would be wrong to say it was a losing month due to draws. Draws weren’t solely to blame this month.

To put this loss into perspective, it is the first losing month since September 2011.  Back then, the systems lost 86pts. Go back to Apr-11, it was a loss of 93.7pts and of course, the first losing month since the systems went live was in Feb-11 and this was a loss of 61.7pts. Therefore, a loss of 12.3pts might sound like a poor month (and it has been) but those who have been following the systems for a while will know it’s not exactly the worst month the systems have had.

Looking at the individual systems, the pleasing thing for me personally is that system 6 and system 21 both had small profitable months again. My ratings are continuing to find value for the most part but unfortunately, the higher value bets and those that are appearing on the higher systems aren’t performing as well as they have done for the last two seasons. 

System 22 was the main culprit this month and a loss of 7.4pts from 16 bets hurts the combined systems. Only 3 winners from 16 bets but there were 8 draws in there. Hence, although draws aren’t totally to blame for the poor month, if one or two of these draws had been wins, the month wouldn’t have been a losing month, so it really is a thin line at this game.

The combined systems in total had their first losing month since Sep-11 with a loss of 13.5pts. Again, to put it in perspective, the previous losing months were 39pts, 46pts and 29pts, so 13.5pts isn’t a disaster. It’s disappointing that 6-21 had a losing month considering 6 and 21 were profitable and as you filter down from there, it gets difficult with system 22 having a poor month.  6-22, 7-22 and 8-22 all had poor months but system 22 was to blame.

Overall, a poor month for these systems which follows a poor month last month. Two poor months in a row but not a disaster. I know I keep going on about perspective but the historical results are the best guide to the future at this game. The 3 bad monthly losses in 2011 occurred in a short space of time and the systems lost 122.2pts in 5 months. I know some people are probably annoyed at the results so far this season, given the results the Established systems have had for the past two seasons but I still believe it’s early days this season.  Over the last two months, the Established systems have had 846 bets for a profit of 0.4pts. Poor results but then again, it could be worse!

The worrying thing for me remains systems 7-22 to 8-22 and going into the season, these were the 3 best TFA systems. Between them this season, they have only had 29 winners in 88 bets and are showing a combined loss. Last season, they hit 94 winners from 190 bets. Hence, if they are going to get anywhere near last season, they are going to have to go on an amazing run but given the run they are on, I’d be happy if they made any profit this season! :(

New Systems

Another great month for these systems this season. A profit of 76.3pts from 582 bets. The base ratings only made a 2.9% on system 31 and 7.5% on system 41 but the combined systems are really doing a brilliant job in using these ratings (similar to what the Est Systems did for the first two seasons!). The combined systems made a profit of 41.2pts from 239pts.

I really get excited when I look at the results for these systems this month and I see the near perfect trends that we’re striving for at this game. The filtering between 31-33 is working well, the filtering between 41 and 42 worked perfectly (7.5% on 41 increasing to 21.9% on system 42) and of course, that then leads on to this beautiful pattern on the combined systems. The higher the systems, the better the results.

There have been so many months where I’ve reviewed the Est Systems and this pattern has been apparent and therefore, it’s great that these systems are showing the same sort of trends.

The one thing that is hard to fathom remains the performance of the AH returns on these systems. It was actually a loss for AH0.25 and AH0.50 on these systems even though they hit a crazy number of winners. Basically, these systems seem to only hit winners and losers and manage to not get too stuck with draws pulling down performance.

I personally have always taken some comfort from the fact the Est Systems always tend to hit winners and draws in the main (apart from this season when there are not enough winners!) and therefore, it does lead me to think that there is a thin line on the New Systems between success and failure.  When they are hitting the winners as they are doing now, the results look awesome and they make the Est Systems look rubbish but how sustainable is this sort of return?

The other question mark for me is last season. These New Systems have now made more profit this season than all of last season! Last season, the draw seemed to really impact these systems and yet, this season, it is having no impact on these systems but seems to be impacting the Est Systems a lot more.

I still believe the gap between the Est Systems and the New Systems is nowhere near as large as it looks at the moment but I’ve been saying that for a few months now. The longer this season goes on and the more the New Systems outperform the Est Systems, the more we may have to consider some movement away from the Est Systems to the New Systems. I expect whatever happens, many of us will be diversifying the portfolio next year away from the Est Systems a lot more than we did this season!

Misc Systems

A couple of these systems have been the star performers this month in the portfolio. No one is more relieved than me if I’m honest as I have been very loyal to these systems since they went live and they have been a lot of work for not a lot of return. However, I kept the faith this season and so far, they haven’t let me down.

Overall, a profit of 58.4pts from 348 bets at an ROI of 16.8%. A similar trend to the New Systems where the AH returns are nowhere near as good but these systems seem to specialise in big odds aways and therefore, they do tend to be a bit hit and miss.

TOX was the star performer with a profit of 17.7pts from 49 bets. STOY wasn’t too far behind and a profit of 13.4pts from 53 bets.

Still early days for these systems this season and after the poor performance last season, it’s too early to get too excited but it looks a lot better. Since going live, the Misc Systems have now dragged their ROI up to 7.5% overall. Not exactly what I hoped for when I created these systems but given the performance of my betting portfolio this season, these systems are holding it up while 7-22 to 8-22 are bringing it down!

Under/Over Systems

I’m nearly lost for words about these systems this month! A 27.4% for the Under system and a 39.6% for the Over system. A 14pt profit from 47 bets with an ROI of 29.8%.

A great performance and since going live last season, these systems have dragged their ROI up to 36.4pts from 585 bets.  An ROI of 6.2%. 

Considering they have started the season with two losing months, it’s great that they have recouped the losses this month.  I think the story with these systems is similar with the Misc Systems. When I developed these systems, I hoped for a much better return than 6.2% but then again, given how much they have struggled, to get a return of 6% or thereabouts is pleasing.

I still don’t have any great confidence in these systems myself but I know a couple of people follow these systems and manage to make them work for themselves, so we’ll keep tracking them and see how they do.

Euro Systems

Where the hell do I start with these systems? I look at the results and I just sort of want to scratch my head and think, WTF is going on?

Let’s start on a good note. A winning month (again!) for the base ratings. System E1 made a return of 10% from 83 bets and E6 made a profit of 5.1% from 94 bets.  That’s great returns and backs up a decent start to the season for the ratings.

However, it soon all goes to shi* when you look at the filtering that is occurring. E2 manages to turn E1 into a loss of 4.7% but surprisingly, E3 manages to make a profit of 22.3%! Very strange and clearly, E2 is letting the side down.

This is a drop in the ocean compared to what happens with the second algorithm. It’s actually hard to believe this but E7 takes a 5.1% profit on E6 and it turns it into a loss of 38.5%! Wow….. 

Interestingly though, E6 has a loss of 7.4% if using AH0.5 but E7 improves that to a loss of only 3.7%! Therefore, it must be the case that E7 does a great job of picking up all the draws from E6 and missing off all the winners. Nice work! NOT!

This basically means the combined systems involving E7 have no chance and it shows through in the results. A loss of 37.1% on E1-E7, a loss of 40% on E2-E7 but amazingly, a profit of 8.7% on E3-E7. I guess E3 is the best system as it somehow manages to protect E3-E7 and as I said above, E3 turns a loss from E2 into a profit on E3. Therefore, I can draw the fairly strong conclusion that E3 is the best individual system this month on the European bets by a helluva long way!

At a high level then, a loss of 8.1pts from 500 bets isn’t a disaster although it follows on from a fairly average month last month. The combined systems are struggling too though and a loss of 5.8pts this month from 212 bets.

Two months into the season, a 7pt profit from 678 bets isn’t exactly the start I was looking for on the Euro systems but as I keep saying, let’s keep things in perspective. It’s not great but it’s not a disaster.  The last losing month on these systems during backtesting saw a loss of 75pts, so a loss of 8.1pts this month is no disaster.

The combined systems have had a fairly tough start and it’s a loss 3.2pts this season from 285 bets. Again, not what I wanted for the first two months of bets but with the number of draws and the lack of winners, it’s amazing the loss isn’t bigger! If they can just start getting a little bit of luck and start turning a few draws into wins, I’m sure we’ll see profits accumulate on these Euro systems.

Overall Monthly Results

At a high level then, a profit of 128pts this month from 1,913 system bets. Not the best month again but I guess if I’m being positive, it is another winning month for the whole portfolio of systems which keeps the P&L ticking over.

The concern remains the fact the Est Systems aren’t doing as well as last season and of course, the Euro systems haven’t exactly set the world alight so far. We’ll see what the next month brings.

Season Summary to Date

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