Monday, 4 March 2013

Weekend Update

A decent start to a new month with a solid performance from the UK ratings this weekend. The Euro ratings had another tough weekend and they are in a bit of a slump at the moment. I’m sort of counting down the weeks to the season end now and with the profits achieved last month, I feel quite content after a weekend like this weekend. I’d happily take a few more weekends like this but I suspect we’ll hit a losing run soon with the UK bets. Feels like one is overdue!

The Euro bets again look disappointing but I watched a few games closely this weekend and it was very frustrating.  Some of the big priced away bets (Nice, Lazio and Genoa) all had a man sent off when still in the game or before the first goal was scored! L’orient lost a late goal to draw, Catania were the big home bet and they lost a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2, Betis lost a 2-0 lead to draw 3-3 and the teams that did manage to win didn’t appear on enough systems.

I keep looking at the Euro results and keep thinking the bets are doing slightly better than the P&L but at the end of the day, I don’t think there is any edge here. I think break-even is probably about the best they should be doing and therefore, a small loss isn’t a disaster but it wasn’t what I hoped for this season.

Definitely going to be rebuilding the Euro ratings again this Summer and I’ll have a second shot at cracking these leagues. Another trial season wasn’t exactly what I was looking for but the ratings aren’t doing what they were doing during backtesting. Nothing like it to be honest!

Anyway, here’s the weekend results in detail.

Est Systems

A profit of 17.04pts from 82 games.  The base ratings did well and system 6,21 and 6-21 created the full profit this weekend.  The filtering didn’t really help much at all.

New Systems

A really good weekend for these systems I think. Again, the base ratings did well and system 31 and 41 made a good solid profit.  34.86pts profit from 116 bets.

Misc Systems

The stars of the show this weekend. A profit of 29.55pts from 58 bets. Great performance and the P&Ls continue to rise at a rate of knots on these systems. Know it can’t go on forever like this but when it is like, they make the game look so easy!

Under-Over Systems

A solid start to these systems this month. 12 bets and a profit of 4.58pts. 8 winners from 12 bets.  Let’s see if they can somehow build on this but I doubt it!

Euro Systems

A loss of 28.9pts from 107 games. Only a loss of 6.9pts if using AH0.5 and the draw played a part but not too much.

Overall, a profit of 57.13pts from 375 games this weekend. Nice start to the month and let’s see if the UK systems can build on it in midweek……

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