Friday, 1 March 2013

February 2013 Monthly Review

I’ve not really enjoyed writing the last few monthly reviews as it’s hard to look back at months where the systems are losing but as I think we all know, it’s pretty unrealistic to assume you can make a profit every calendar month. It’s probably worth a quick recap on what has happened before this month before we start looking at February 2013.

The Established systems launched in Sep-10 and started off with 4 really strong months. Jan-11 was a tougher month but still profitable. Feb-11 was the first really bad month and it was a disaster of a month. All the losses were recouped in Mar-11 and then Apr-11 was like Armageddon. A nightmare month and a massive loss on the systems. May-11 recouped a little of the losses.  End of the first season, first half of the season was massively profitable, second half of the season was loss making.

Last season started with another Armageddon month in Sep-11. The loss wasn’t quite as bad as the Apr-11 loss but not far off it. A massive hole after the first month of the season. The systems then followed up with an amazing month in Oct-11 and then another tremendous month in Nov-11. Things settled down after that but we saw another 6 winnings months in a row. So,. 8 from 9 winning months last season.

This season started OK with a decent enough Sep-12 but then things got tricky after a small profit in Oct-12.  At this stage, the systems had been live for 20 months and had achieved profits in 17 of the months. An amazing achievement I think for any set of systems and to achieve this level of profitability on a monthly basis for football betting is not too common.  We then had a bad loss in Nov-12, a much bigger loss in Dec-12 and then a smaller loss in Jan-13. Therefore, after 10 monthly profits in a row, we suffered 3 straight losing months.  My confidence took a massive dent, I suspect everyone following was scratching their head and wondering what had happened and of course, the good old systems. What did the systems do?

Well…errr…nothing. They continued punting out the same type of bets they do every week and every month and the combined systems had 158 bets in February.  This was exactly the average number of bets over the previous 4 month period. The bet number by month was 157, 166, 161, 149 and then 158 in Feb-13. 

So, what happened in Feb-13 to the Established Systems and all the other systems?

Est Systems

191 winners from 385 bets which is a near 50% strike rate. Given the average odds on the systems this month was 2.93, you can see it was a stunning month!

A profit of 127.5pts from 385 bets. An ROI of 33.1%.

Algorithm one made 21.4pts from 88 bets and algorithm two made 14.8pts from 77 bets. Based on this, you would hope that the systems filter the bets well and increase the ROI and of course, you really hope the combined systems did their job and improved the returns. Well, thankfully, this happened this month!

System 7 doubled the ROI by taking 1/3 of the bets from system 6 and system 8 ended with a 64% ROI from half the bets on system 7. Very good and exactly how the systems are meant to work! Shame they’ve not worked like this all season but over the first two seasons, this was the norm.

System 22 managed to double the ROI on system 21 and achieved a 39% ROI. 

The combined systems had a storming month using these bets. The ROI’s on 6-21, 7-21 and 8-21 were 18.2%, 45.6% and 64.1%. The ROI’s on 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22 were 39.3%, 85.7% and 97.1%.

That is exactly how the systems are supposed to work and I’ve no idea why it has taken until Feb-13 for them to work this season. Last season and the first season, 4 or 5 months followed this sort of pattern and when the systems work like this, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a betting system so powerful. The highest value bets performed better than the weaker bets and everything fell into place this month.

A special mention to system 7-22 and 8-22. 7-22 hit 11 winners from 15 bets and 8-22 hit 7 winners from 8 bets.  They made 12.9pts and 7.8pts respectively. In one month, they’ve both gone from a fairly big loss to a small profit for the season.

I know a fair number of people follow these two systems in their portfolio and given the results over the first two seasons, it was hard to watch these systems this season as they started well but then hit a drawdown that wasn’t far off the worst historical drawdown. Very disappointing really and ultimately, I was facing up to the fact that both systems would have a losing season. Of course, that may still turn out to be the case but at one point, I thought they could lose 25pts or thereabouts this season, so to see them in a small profit after this month is pleasing.

In terms of my proofed results with the SBC, the 6 combined systems made a profit of 63.2pts. That turns the season right around and the season results now stand at 61.9pts profit from 895 bets. That’s a season ROI of 6.9%. 

Considering it’s been a shocking season and a number of these systems have had near historical drawdowns, it’s a great feeling to see them sitting with an ROI of 6.9%. Of course, there is a long way to go and I reckon there is about 25% of the season left in terms of bet numbers, so they could still have a losing season I guess but after this season’s troubles, a break-even season wouldn’t be a disaster in my eyes. At the start of the month, they were down for the season, had come off the back of 3 losing months in a row and I was actually thinking that if I could get away with a small loss this season, I could rebuild in the summer and hopefully turn things around next season.

Long way to go but we enter March with a lot more confidence than I entered February with!

New Systems

These systems had their first losing month last month since they went live at the start of the season.  It wasn’t a massive loss but it was enough of a loss to dent my confidence in these systems a little. Well, they responded in a way in February that I’ve only seen matched by err….oh yeah, their big brothers, the Est Systems!

A profit of 183.1pts from 530 bets. An ROI of 34.5%.

System 31 made a profit of 28.3pts from 93 bets and system 41 made a profit of 33.8pts from 120 bets. That’s a brilliant result for the base ratings and gives a great platform to work from.

The filtering wasn’t quite as impressive as the Est Systems if I’m honest but it still wasn’t bad! 

The top two combined systems achieved ROI’s in excess of 100% this month. 33-41 hit 9 winners from 12 for a profit of 15.6pts and 33-42 hit 7 from 9 for a profit of 10.1pts.

Overall, a truly stunning month and when you think they also had a great start to the season, the results for the New Systems are stacking up nicely now. We’ll know more once the season is finished but I suspect these are the ratings people will be falling over themselves to follow next season.

Misc Systems

I feel like these systems are my pet project this season. I missed the boat this season a little by standing by and watching the New Systems as they’ve accumulated a scary amount of profits but at the start of the season, I personally felt these systems had less to prove this season. They’ve not let me down this month again!

A profit of 102.7pts from 268 bets. An ROI of 38.3%.

The 3 systems TOX, STOY and STOZ were the main stars this month. All 3 systems had ROI’s in excess of 50% and although they admittedly usually all contain nearly identical bets, it’s still a really good result I think.

You could argue the other 3 systems were disappointing considering the results on the other systems that make up these combined systems but then again, in other months when the other systems were struggling, they systems did OK, so you can’t have massive profits all the time.

Overall, a very solid month for these systems again and apart from a blip in January when a loss was created, profits every month for these systems in totality.

Under/Over Systems

Another nothing month for these systems really. A loss of 1.4pts from 50 bets. Under system made a 0.5pt profit from 27 bets and the Over system made a 2pt loss from 23 bets. These systems won’t win you any money in the long-run but they won’t do much damage either. Maybe they’ll click into gear one day and make a good profit again in a month but so far, not happening this season.

Euro Systems

When the UK ratings have a month like this, I can’t help but wonder why I’m bothering with the Euro bets. I’ve cracked the UK leagues and therefore, why bother with trying to prove I can get something to work for European leagues? Well, after this month, it’s not getting easier to get the stakes on I want on the UK bets at the odds I want and yes, I can get the stakes on at lower odds but long-term, if I continue like this, I’ll no doubt reach the stage where I erode a huge chunk of my edge.  The Euros will hopefully never have this issue due to the much higher liquidity available. All I’ve got to do is get ratings to work in these leagues and as this month (and this season has shown me), I’m nowhere near yet. I cracked the UK leagues at the first attempt basically but I suspect it will be back to the drawing board with the Euro ratings during the Summer for next season.

This month, a fairly substantial loss. A loss of 45.4pts from 377 bets.

The base ratings had a nightmare and the filtering of the bets and the combined systems did a great job in minimising the damage. System E1 lost 9pts from 71 bets and E6 lost 19.1pts from 77 bets.

With these results, it is somewhat surprising I guess that the top 4 combined systems all made a small profit! I’ve seen bits and pieces of profitability within the Euro ratings this season and although I suspect we’ll end with a small loss or a small profit overall, I think there are definitely pockets of bets that are worth looking at for next season. Whether I need to rebuild the full algorithms from scratch is something I’ll decide at the end of the season but I’m hopeful we can get away with a few tweaks here and there.

Overall for Feb-13

I don’t get the opportunity to post figures like this too often (not sure any blog I’ve read does!) but this month has saw a profit of 366.5pts from 1,610 bets. An overall ROI of 22.76%.

For me personally, the first two months of 2013 has seen me have the best 8 weeks betting of my life so far. The only way is down from here for me in 2013 but hopefully I can cushion the fall a little over the rest of this season!

I think for the first time in a while, I enter a new month with some hope that this season might turn out OK for those following the system. I was more concerned with my own P&L a few months ago but I feel like that has been taken care of for the moment, so I can only hope that many others have made the last month or so pay as it won’t be like this forever!

Season Results

The season results suddenly look a helluva lot better than they did a month ago!  720.5pts profit from 8,802 bets is a decent return and you can see how important February 2013 was to this season. Half of the profits for the season were generated last month!

35 of the 41 systems this season are now in profit and again, it’s a good return. The first season saw all 11 live systems make a profit and last season saw 21 of the 22 systems make a profit and the other system made a tiny loss.

Again, I think this shows that you can’t be too quick to judge systems and over the course of a season, I think TFA has an unparalleled ability to develop winning systems.

All Live Results

It’s remarkable that I’ve now proofed over 17,000 bets. When I started out on this journey, I figured I may add the odd system to the portfolio of Est Systems but I didn’t think I’d ever have 41 live systems at once!

At the moment, a profit of 8% across these bets is decent enough. I aim for a 10% return as I’ve said many times now but I suspect I’ll struggle to drag 41 systems up to a 10% return but if I was offered 8% across the next 10,000 bets, I’d take it.


  1. Graeme - congratulations, and one more lesson if anyone needed it that perseverance and a strong will is an absolute necessity for success in this game.

    Nice one!

  2. Cheers mate.

    Yeah, I think the betting Gods just play this game every so often where they do their best to weed out the people who are not cut out for this betting malarkey. That was as bad a 3 month spell as I’d had with my betting for a long-time and then boom, all the profits come at once and things suddenly look so much better.

    I’ve said this before but if I could just generate a 5% return on what I stake every month, I’d be over the moon. I’m not really interested in doubling a betting bank in a month and then having nothing again for a number of months and then doing the same again. Unfortunately, no matter how many bets you have and how good an edge you have, variance dictates that you can be made to look quite silly for a while. Given the number of hours I put into this every month to make a loss for 3 months running, it wasn’t exactly a nice feeling but feel much better now!

    Just hope I don’t suffer a monster losing month in March now as some form of correction…….that’s my new worry! lol