Thinking Long-Term (or am I?)

Another poor midweek for me with only one winner from 4 bets.

There has been a lot of deabte this week in the TFA forum about the multiple bets and whether they can really be followed in a portfolio, even to small stakes.

So far this season, I've made a return of 12.6% in my own betting from multiple bets and that's not to be sniffed at and although the strike rate is very low (11 winning bets in 33 staked), I quite like the fact they can give the P&L a nice shot in the arm every so often. Obviously, when that isn't happening, you feel like they are a waste of time as you lose most of the time but I try my best to think long-term all the time. In addition, placing the bet doesn't take me long compared to staking singles, so I enjoy this fact also!

I'll be back later with the weekend bets.

Midweek Bets

Not too many bets again this midweek. There are only a dozen or so games and the systems haven't thrown up too many bets at all.

Good luck if you are following.

The Football Analyst Bets for midweek 11th/12th January

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
11/01/2011 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Walsall Walsall 3.50 VC
11/01/2011 19:45 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.80 VC

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
11/01/2011 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Walsall Walsall 3.50 VC

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
11/01/2011 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Walsall Walsall 3.50 VC

System 9
None

System 16
None

System 21
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
11/01/2011 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Walsall Walsall 3.50 VC
11/01/2011 19:45 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 VC
11/01/2011 19:45 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Newport Newport 2.10 VC
12/01/2011 19:45 Bsq Prem Wimbledon v Luton Luton 2.60 VC

System 22
None

System 23
None

Poor day

A quick update of my results from today. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a good day and a small losing day was had.

I had a quick check of the scores at half-time and it looked like many games were in the balance but unfortunately for me, that’s the way some of them stayed and they ended a draw.

Not much harm done though considering the start to the year and I can’t be too critical of systems 21-23 after the past few weeks. System 6 had a decent day but with my new staking plan, I stake this system the lowest of all of the systems (apart from the ones I’m not following at the moment), so it is Sod’s law that the system made a small profit today when the ones I stake more on all lost!

I’m sure with all the postponements this winter, there will be rearranged midweek fixtures most weeks, so I’ll be back early in the week with any bets.

Weekend Bets

With the FA Cup this weekend, there is a lack of bets for the systems. This is personally the lowest I've staked for a long time, so it will feel like the pressure is off this weekend I think.

The biggest team for me is Wimbledon this weekend and system 23 is going for its 9th winner in 10 bets. The run has to come to an end at some point I guess but I'm hopeful they may keep it going.

Fingers crossed for a good weekend.

The Football Analyst Bets for 8th January

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookie
08/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Northampton v Cheltenham Northampton 2.20 Tote
08/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Shrewsbury v Morecambe Morecambe 5.00 Corals
08/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Grimsby Grimsby 2.88 Tote

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 9
None

System 16
None

System 21
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookie
08/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Exeter v MK Dons MK Dons 3.10 VC
08/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Accrington v Bury Bury 2.60 Tote
08/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Stockport v Gillingham Gillingham 2.20 Ladbrokes
08/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Darlington v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38 Tote
08/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Grimsby Grimsby 2.88 Tote

System 22
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookie
08/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Exeter v MK Dons MK Dons 3.10 VC
08/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Stockport v Gillingham Gillingham 2.20 Ladbrokes
08/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Darlington v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38 Tote

System 23
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookie
08/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Darlington v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38 Tote

The journey continues....

Finally managed to get my results up to date for what has happened over the second part of the Festive period.

After a good end to last year, this year has started in great fashion. Much of the profit comes from the multiple bets on New Year’s day. They have been due a good day after a bad start when I started following with money but thankfully, I'm in profit now!

In terms of what has happened recently, New Year’s day was a magnificent day with a profit of 17pts on the single systems as well as the good day on the multiples. The 2nd and the 3rd was basically break-even for me.

The 4th was another good night as I had backed Plymouth with a decent stake and if I’m honest, at half time and 2-0 down, I sort of gave up on them winning that game. I was watching something on TV (can’t remember what!) and was flicking back to Sky Sports News to check the scores and also checking how West Brom were doing at Fulham on Sky Sports. I saw the Fulham goal just before half time and at that point in time, I was looking at a hefty loss on the evening with both these teams losing.

The next time I checked on Sky Sports, Fulham were 2-0 up and I had resigned myself to a large loss on the evening and I didn’t even check the score in the other game if I’m honest.

At 9.20 or thereabouts, I flicked it across onto Sky Sports News and saw it was 2-2 in the Plymouth game. I was just about to flick back when it announced there had been a goal and I jumped off the settee in anticipation. A little mad run around the living room ensued before I sat down and finished watching my program with my other half. Anyway, I got a text from a mate in the TFA forum (who had backed Plymouth) as soon as the game was finished and I breathed a sigh of relief, knowing they had turned the game around. A great result.

A small loss was made last night which was mainly as a result of me booking the multiple loss on the evening.

I’m very proud of the fact I didn’t give up on this blog (and also on my footie systems) when things were going very bad in November. If this journey has taught me anything thus far, it is that when things are going badly, as long as you believe in what you are doing, then don’t give up on it. By tweaking my staking and playing more on the systems I believe in, I’ve managed to keep my P&L on an upward trijectory which is important for me this season.

Anyway, that’s about as deep thinking as I’ve written on this blog thus far but enough of that. A long way to go before I get anywhere near to believing these systems might actually make me money long-term but I'm closer to that stage than ever before I think!

More Midweek Bets

I've not had time to update my results yet for New Year's Day. However, here are the next set of system bets for this midweek.

New Year's Day was a very good day, so let's hope the form can continue.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 3rd/4th/5th January

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
04/01/2010 19:45 Premiership Fulham v West Brom West Brom 3.75 VC
04/01/2010 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Plymouth Plymouth 3.10 WH
03/01/2010 15:00 League 1 Oldham v Rochdale Oldham 1.85 Tote
03/01/2010 15:00 League 1 Peterboro v Walsall Walsall 5.50 Corals
03/01/2010 15:00 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 2.63 Corals
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Bury Bury 2.80 Ladbrokes
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Macclesfield v Rotherham Rotherham 2.40 Corals
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Torquay v Oxford Oxford 3.80 Ladbrokes
03/01/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem Rushden v Kettering Rushden 1.80 SJ
03/01/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Bath Wrexham 1.78 Pinnacle

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
04/01/2010 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Plymouth Plymouth 3.10 WH
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Bury Bury 2.80 Ladbrokes

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
04/01/2010 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Plymouth Plymouth 3.10 WH
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Bury Bury 2.80 Ladbrokes

System 9
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
04/01/2010 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Plymouth Plymouth 3.10 WH
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Bury Bury 2.80 Ladbrokes


System 16
Bet 1
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
04/01/2010 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Plymouth Plymouth 3.10
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Bury Bury 2.60
05/01/2010 19:45 Premiership Arsenal v Man City Arsenal 2.00
03/01/2010 15:00 League 1 Oldham v Rochdale Oldham 1.83
Full Perm 15 Bets Corals

System 21
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
04/01/2010 19:45 Premiership Fulham v West Brom West Brom 3.75 VC
05/01/2010 19:45 Premiership Blackburn v Liverpool Liverpool 2.25 SJ
03/01/2010 15:00 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 3.79 Pinnacle
03/01/2010 15:00 Championship Scunthorpe v Watford Watford 2.30 Corals
03/01/2010 15:00 League 1 Bournemouth v Brenford Bournemouth 2.20 Ladbrokes
03/01/2010 15:00 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 2.63 Corals
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Bury Bury 2.80 Ladbrokes
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Macclesfield v Rotherham Rotherham 2.40 Corals
04/01/2010 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Plymouth Plymouth 3.10 WH
03/01/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood Fleetwood 3.20 PP

System 22
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
04/01/2010 19:45 Premiership Fulham v West Brom West Brom 3.75 VC
03/01/2010 15:00 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 2.63 Corals
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Bury Bury 2.80 Ladbrokes
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Macclesfield v Rotherham Rotherham 2.40 Corals
04/01/2010 19:45 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Plymouth Plymouth 3.10 WH
03/01/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood Fleetwood 3.20 PP

System 23
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
03/01/2010 15:00 League 2 Macclesfield v Rotherham Rotherham 2.40 Corals

New Year Day Bets

Here are the bets for today. A very busy day again and given the run the systems are on, I'm fairly confident but we'll see what happens.

The Football Analyst Bets for 1st/3rd January

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Liverpool v Bolton Liverpool 1.73 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Sunderland v Blackburn Sunderland 2.00 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Tottenham v Fulham Tottenham 1.45 Pinnacle
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership West Ham v Wolves Wolves 4.08 Pinnacle
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Bristol City v Cardiff Cardiff 2.50 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Burnley v Sheff Utd Burnley 1.83 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Coventry v Ipswich Ipswich 3.50 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Hull v Leicester Leicester 2.90 Tote
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Millwall v C Palace Millwall 1.91 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Hartlepool v Oldham Oldham 3.25 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Plymouth v Yeovil Yeovil 4.33 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Southampton v Exeter Southampton 1.53 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Notts County Notts County 2.63 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Bury v Macclesfield Bury 1.80 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Newport County v Bath Newport County 1.57 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 SPL Aberdeen v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.75 Corals
03/01/2011 15:00 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2.50 Corals

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Sunderland v Blackburn Sunderland 2.00 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Bristol City v Cardiff Cardiff 2.50 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Burnley v Sheff Utd Burnley 1.83 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Hull v Leicester Leicester 2.90 Tote
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Millwall v C Palace Millwall 1.91 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Plymouth v Yeovil Yeovil 4.33 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Southampton v Exeter Southampton 1.53 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Notts County Notts County 2.63 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Bury v Macclesfield Bury 1.80 VC

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Sunderland v Blackburn Sunderland 2.00 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Burnley v Sheff Utd Burnley 1.83 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Hull v Leicester Leicester 2.90 Tote
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Millwall v C Palace Millwall 1.91 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Notts County Notts County 2.63 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Bury v Macclesfield Bury 1.80 VC

System 9
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Burnley v Sheff Utd Burnley 1.83 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Bury v Macclesfield Bury 1.80 VC

System 16
Bet 1
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Burnley v Sheff Utd Burnley 1.83
01/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Bury v Macclesfield Bury 1.80
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Hull v Leicester Leicester 2.80
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Liverpool v Bolton Liverpool 1.73
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Millwall v C Palace Millwall 1.83 Betfred
Full Perm 31 Bets

Bet 2
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Newport County v Bath Newport County 1.57
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Southampton v Exeter Southampton 1.53
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Sunderland v Blackburn Sunderland 2.00
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Tottenham v Fulham Tottenham 1.36
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Notts County Notts County 2.60 Corals
Full Perm 31 Bets

System 21
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership Sunderland v Blackburn Sunderland 2.00 Corals
01/01/2011 15:00 Premiership West Brom v Man Utd Man Utd 1.55 Pinnacle
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Bristol City v Cardiff Cardiff 2.50 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Coventry v Ipswich Ipswich 3.50 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Hull v Leicester Leicester 2.90 Tote
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Millwall v C Palace Millwall 1.91 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Watford v Portsmouth Watford 2.10 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Hartlepool v Oldham Oldham 3.25 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Southampton v Exeter Southampton 1.53 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Notts County Notts County 2.63 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 League 2 Hereford v Torquay Torquay 2.30 Ladbrokes
01/01/2011 15:00 Bsq Prem Kettering v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 Corals
02/01/2011 15:00 SPL Rangers v Celtic Rangers 2.10 Ladbrokes
02/01/2011 15:00 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 2.88 WH
03/01/2011 15:00 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2.50 Corals

System 22
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Bristol City v Cardiff Cardiff 2.50 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Coventry v Ipswich Ipswich 3.50 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 Championship Hull v Leicester Leicester 2.90 Tote
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Hartlepool v Oldham Oldham 3.25 VC
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Notts County Notts County 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 23
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
01/01/2011 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Notts County Notts County 2.63 Ladbrokes