Delusions of grandeur?

After I wrote my last post, I was thinking more at lunchtime about whether or not I was wrong to think I had something that worked earlier this season.

Was it delusions of grandeur or was I correct to think that I maybe had something that worked? It was quoted many times in the TFA forum that these systems were the best football systems anyone had ever seen as we made our way through the first half of the season and on 31/12/2010, I personally would have even went as far to say that this was the best gambling system I think I've ever seen.

I'm a pretty intelligent guy and I would like to think I wouldn't get sucked into something unless I had enough proof that it was working. I had results going back a long way, another 2 years results from 2007 and 2008 that were fairly safe to use with little backfitting but more importantly, I had 2 full season's of backtested results in 2009 and 2010 with no backfitting involved.

I also had 1,195 games this season that were further proof. In total, we're looking at about 14,000 games that were all pointing to the fact that I had built something pretty special with the footie.

The results at the end of December for this season were showing an ROI of 25% overall with some systems showing ROI's like I'd never seen before. DNB and DC weren't even captured in my results at that time but looking back now, the results would have been very poor compared to backing the teams to win. Covering the draw....why would I even dream of that concept?

Roll on 4 months and how the mighty have fallen.......



Did I fluke 4 months of good results? Was I deluded?

At the end of the day, if someone had offered me these results at the start of the season, I would have bitten their hand off. A full year's proofed results, a return of 8%+ and an amazing amount of learning from this season. Unfortunately, if someone had offered me these results at Christmas, I would have thought they were taking the P..........

The ship has sailed......

I think in a way, I'm a little bit glad that things have gone dramatically off the rails from Christmas as it means that there are no delusions of grandeur with me anymore when it comes to the football. At Christmas, I thought I could walk on water when it came to football betting considering how well I was doing and now I feel like I'm being washed up on the shore, cast adrift after being thrown off the ship called 'Profit'.

There are lots of ways to look at what has happened since Christmas. It has been truly awful and I can't quite explain how something that could work so well for 4 months live this season, as well as two full season's worth of backtesting could dramatically turn into the best draw system I've ever seen. If backing the draws, the systems have made a profit 308pts since Jan 1st 2011. This is from 1,552 games and an ROI of 19.85% has been achieved.

It's hard to understand why something like this can occur and I'm at a loss to explain it. In the preceding 41 months to Jan-11, there had only been 7 months where the draw % for the systems had been above 30%. If backing the draw in these games, you would have lost over 2,000pts from 13,000 games. It hardly looked like a way to make money based on past results.

In the 4 months this year, the draw % has been above 30% every month and is sitting at 34.6% after the weekend for 2011 as a whole.

Clearly, there are lots of ways to look at this. Do you ignore 41 month's past results and assume that the ratings have an inherent flaw in them and that going forward, it will become impossible to make a profit due to the draw?

Do you use the draw in your bets somewhere and play Asian Handicaps to get the draw on your side? Draw No Bet and Double Chance betting have done very well this season and have been fairly steady although at Christmas time, I wasn't even tracking DC or DNB this season as the returns were so far behind the traditional H/A betting returns!

I think it would be fairly easy to decide I've had enough of this and move onto something else but I'm not sure that's the right answer either. After all, I might have just developed the best draw system by accident the world has ever seen...... :(

I've discussed this a lot on the blog since Christmas as it was initially raised by a very intelligent chap called Chris in the TFA forum about the fact that he would prefer to cover the draw in some games to smooth his P&L. 4 months on, a lot of research and work by me, a few months of live results of tracking DNB/DC and I have to admit that I agree with him completely now. I think unless you have lived and breathed a run like I've been on, it's easy to say that covering the draw when you have an edge is just a way to reduce your margin and in the long-run, backing the teams to win is the way to maximise profits. However, experiencing this run, I know I need the draw on my side for my own sanity, if nothing else!

It's a similar situation I found with horseracing and win only v each-way betting. I would often play each-way on the majority of my bets and people would point out that a slightly better return could be achieved by win only. However, in the long-run, I found my returns from EW betting were fairly similar to win only and in terms of helping my mental state, it helped enormously to get a positive return from some bets that were pipped on the line.

Anyway, I think I'm coming to the same conclusion here with the football betting. If you can achieve a high level of return by covering the draw or backing the draw as well as your selection, why wouldn't you do it? So what if it isn't a 15% return with lots of ups and downs. I'd rather have a 10% return that is fairly flat than a 15% return that is all over the place every month.

Just on this point. Any of those reading the blog for a while will know I went back and looked at the returns of DNB and DC betting for my historical results. DNB seemed to do very well and DC was profitable but much less so. On Friday, I wanted to check how DNB and DC did at the time of kick-off compared to the odds I had saved in my results sheet. I noticed that something wasn't right as DNB was doing much better than DC in terms of the odds my results sheet said. Simply, there was an error in the sheet that was overstating DNB and understating DC returns historically. It doesn't make a huge difference to any conclusions I have drawn before (H/A is better than DNB and DNB is better than DC) but there is a bigger gap between H/A and DNB now and of course, a smaller gap between DNB and DC. Not ideal when you find a data issue that is your own doing but I'm not perfect!

So, now my waffling is over, what happened yesterday? Well, the same as what has happened most weeks in 2011. Far too many draws!

25 different games defined as value. 9 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses. 3 of the losses were actually 90 min goals against my teams, so it could have been 9,13,3 which would have been amazing. Still. another 10 draws in 25 games which is a 40% strike rate for draws. A loss of 3.21pts from the 25 games.

The systems went to town with the games that finished a draw and from 108 games, they hit 46 draws along with only 32 winners and 30 losers. When you hit 32 winners from 108 games, it isn't going to be pretty....

A loss of 34pts for the systems yesterday. Even DNB had a poor day with losses of 9.3pts but DC had a good day with profits of 8.9pts.

The multiple bets had another shocker of a day which is nothing new there in 2011 either.

With only Saturday's games to go, the systems are on course for their worst ever month. Considering Feb-11 holds that record at the moment, it hasn't been a good few months! The systems are 73pts down in April and they lost 66pts in February. In 2011, the systems are now 63pts down which considering they made 300pts from September to December this season, it is pretty hard to predict what would have happened in the second half of this season as I wrote my December review in early January. I sort of pre-empted a downturn but this is like something suggesting it will be windy before a hurricane hits! I would never have believed things could get as bad as this.

On a brighter note, although DNB has had losing months in Feb and April (so far), it is still up 48pts in 2011.

Lastly, but definitely not least, DC is having an OK month with 10pts profit this month and of course, is doing pretty well in 2011 with a profit of over 100pts and an ROI of 8% in 2011.

It will be fairly interesting to write my monthly review next week after the worst month the systems have ever had but maybe Saturday will come to the rescue and reduce the losses to below February's disaster.....I doubt it though!

We'll see what happens

Shattered after spending all day on the footie but here's the bets for tomorrow. Not much more to say as the title says it all......


The Football Analyst Bets for 25th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.38 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Championship Burnley v Portsmouth Burnley 1.81 Pinnacle
25/04/2011 Championship Leicester v Watford Leicester 1.83 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 Championship QPR v Hull QPR 1.75 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Walsall Oldham 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Burton v Torquay Torquay 2.50 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Southend Southend 3.00 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Altrincham Grimsby 1.83 SJ
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Rushden v Kidderminster Rushden 3.10 VC

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Championship Burnley v Portsmouth Burnley 1.81 Pinnacle
25/04/2011 Championship QPR v Hull QPR 1.75 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Walsall Oldham 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Burton v Torquay Torquay 2.50 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Altrincham Grimsby 1.83 SJ
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Rushden v Kidderminster Rushden 3.10 VC

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 Championship Preston v Cardiff Cardiff 2.15 Pinnacle
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.40 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.20 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Southend Southend 3.00 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.40 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.20 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.40 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Southend Southend 3.00 PP
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.50
25/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Walsall Oldham 2.50
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Tamworth Wrexham 1.57 Skybet
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets

System 17 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.05
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.05
25/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.50 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 17 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.60
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.40
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.25
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.50 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.05
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.60
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.25 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 19 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.40
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 19 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.75
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.50
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Sky
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.05
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.40 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

Unreal

A very quick post as I won’t get the results updated from this weekend until next week. I’ll be posting the bets for Monday tomorrow night or very early Monday morning as it’s a bit of a rush-job this weekend with so many games taking place in a short space of time.

I’ve just tallied up the scores on the doors for the last two days but I wouldn’t assume these are 100% correct until I fully go through the results sheets. Overall, I think it’s about a 10pt loss on the systems overall but that doesn’t tell half the story!

Friday was a shocker with 5 games played and no winners. 38pts lost for the systems. The Rotherham game was a real sickener as they were 2-0 up and trading 1.13 at half time. They let a goal slip in the second half and as tends to happen when things aren’t going your way, they let in an injury time equaliser. A swing of 35pts on the game and if they had held on, it was nearly a break-even day.

Today couldn’t have gone much worse than yesterday but it was another sickener of a day really. Charlton were the culprits this time. 2-0 up and cruising against a team with no confidence and little chance of getting back in the game. 2 sending offs in the space of 6 mins and with 25 minutes left, they had to try to hold on with 9 men. No such luck as they drew 2-2. A 25pt swing on that game.

So, instead of a decent profit on Rotherham and Charlton, it was substantial losses and a 60pt swing against me. Unreal.

As it turned out, Carlisle and Newport came to my rescue and both won today. Carlisle at 7/2 was the highlight although Newport at 7/4 weren’t far behind.

Overall, a profit of 28pts today and when you consider the 25pt swing with Charlton, it could have been much, much better.

I make it 10pts lost over the 2 days which after Friday, I would have taken.

15 games overall picked out, 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. 40% strike rate on draws again. Unreal.

The systems picked out 79 bets. 22 wins, 29 losses and 28 draws. 35% strike rate on draws again. Unreal.

Hard to know what to make of the last 2 days. Nothing appeared to go for me again and yet, it was only a small loss. Hopefully I can get the rub of the green on Monday!

For future analysis

One thing I don't do enough is check how the odds I obtain on my bets compare with those available at the time of kick-off. Below are the odds for all my bets this weekend as at 3pm on Friday.

I'm not going to pay much attention to it at the moment but once we get past the next week or so, this sort of analysis is something I want to spend more time looking at.

I don't have time to record all the DNB/DC odds so I've just used the draw odds and the selection odds to give me the Asian Handicap odds. It will overstate the profits a little compared to what I'm using in my results but I'll not worry too much about it.

Busy weekend

Well, the next few weeks are likely to determine whether this season ends up highly profitable or slightly profitable for me personally. In addition, it has a big impact on any future plans for the football as well I suspect, so a lot is riding on the next few weeks, starting from this weekend.

15 different games thrown up this weekend as value according to my ratings. However, quite a few are very strong bets, so the same teams appear on a number of systems.

These busy days tend to either be very profitable or heavily loss making going by what I've seen this season. We'll see what happens.


The Football Analyst Bets for 22nd & 23rd April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Coventry v Scunthorpe Coventry 1.80 B365
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 Championship Watford v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 4.00 VC

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes

System 9
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 Championship Derby v Burnley Burnley 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Swansea Swansea 2.50 Boyles
22/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Oldham Oldham 4.50 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Stoke Aston Villa 1.89 Pinnacle
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 4.00 VC

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 Championship Derby v Burnley Burnley 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Oldham Oldham 4.50 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 4.00 VC

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 WH
Any 3 and all 4 = 5 Bets
System 17 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Oldham Oldham 4.00
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.40 WH
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 17 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.10
23/04/2011 Championship Derby v Burnley Burnley 2.88
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.33 VC
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 WH
Any 3 and all 4 = 5 Bets

System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 WH
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.40
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 WH
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

2 from 4

Just a quick post with an update of how last night went. I said this in the TFA forum this morning but in one sense, last night was meaningless. The weakest bets from my ratings are the ones that only appear on system 21 and therefore, no one could ever follow these with much confidence.

Even so, it was still nice to see a winning night for the systems in advance of a very busy weekend period. The next week or so will make or break this month and after a nightmare start this month, the systems are fighting back a little.

2 wins, a draw and one loser last night but a profit of 3.4pts to the prices I advised. For info, DNB was a profit of 2.4pts and DC was a profit of 1.2pts. Better could have been achieved at the start of the game across the piece last night but I record the prices I take at a point in time. Whether they drift or contract in price isn't really relevant to me as I'm not trading.

The next week or so is fairly busy for me with the footie but I'll find the time to send out the bets as usual and post them up here afterwards. I'll do the Friday/Saturday/Sunday games on Thursday and then the Monday/Tues games on Sunday. I'll post up the bets at night.

There is a chance I'll struggle on Sunday night to post them as I'm out all day Sunday, so it might fall into Monday morning first thing for Monday's bets.

Looking forward to the next week or so as with the Bank Holiday and then next weekend too, there are still a lot of games to be played in April. Hence, this month could still go either way I suspect and I can badly do with a decent end to the month after the start!

Be back later this week then with the bets for the weekend.