Tuesday, 26 April 2011

Delusions of grandeur?

After I wrote my last post, I was thinking more at lunchtime about whether or not I was wrong to think I had something that worked earlier this season.

Was it delusions of grandeur or was I correct to think that I maybe had something that worked? It was quoted many times in the TFA forum that these systems were the best football systems anyone had ever seen as we made our way through the first half of the season and on 31/12/2010, I personally would have even went as far to say that this was the best gambling system I think I've ever seen.

I'm a pretty intelligent guy and I would like to think I wouldn't get sucked into something unless I had enough proof that it was working. I had results going back a long way, another 2 years results from 2007 and 2008 that were fairly safe to use with little backfitting but more importantly, I had 2 full season's of backtested results in 2009 and 2010 with no backfitting involved.

I also had 1,195 games this season that were further proof. In total, we're looking at about 14,000 games that were all pointing to the fact that I had built something pretty special with the footie.

The results at the end of December for this season were showing an ROI of 25% overall with some systems showing ROI's like I'd never seen before. DNB and DC weren't even captured in my results at that time but looking back now, the results would have been very poor compared to backing the teams to win. Covering the draw....why would I even dream of that concept?

Roll on 4 months and how the mighty have fallen.......

Did I fluke 4 months of good results? Was I deluded?

At the end of the day, if someone had offered me these results at the start of the season, I would have bitten their hand off. A full year's proofed results, a return of 8%+ and an amazing amount of learning from this season. Unfortunately, if someone had offered me these results at Christmas, I would have thought they were taking the P..........


  1. Your New Blog Reader28 April 2011 at 16:30

    I accidentally came across your blog today and I have to say that your system is one of the most interesting I've seen. I believe that the insane amount of draws recently will only serve to strengthen your system. 8% profit is still profit. And with the large number of bets you make per season, It actually still translates to a large profit.

    I wonder if you've tried adjusting your stakes? Maybe doing a percentage of the bank (per day, weekly, bi-weekly, or even monthly) instead of level stakes for the whole season. I haven't gone through all your posts yet and I apologize if you've already tried this. I think this might allow you to abuse the massive good runs that the system brings and to weather the storm on losing months.

    I hope things go well for you soon!

    "Betting is not a sprint, but a marathon."

  2. Hi there. Thanks for the comment. I haven't actually touched on variable staking on the blog although last summer when I was building the systems, I discussed it a fair bit in detail in a forum I use. I've not looked at it at all this season although I can't imagine it helped smooth the journey considering the first half of the season was great and the second half has been rubbish.

    I'll get back to you when I can with a post and some figures.