Season Review to Date

As I said on the last post, I think it’s important to stand back and take stock of the situation at times. I’m as guilty as anyone if I’m honest of paying too much attention to recent results and thinking things are worse than they appear to be. I think that comes from being so close to the ratings, finding the system bets, betting on them, going through an emotional rollercoaster most weekends and then having to spend endless hours updating results and then starting again with the ratings for the next set of fixtures.

The discipline needed at this game to make money is far greater than what most people could ever imagine and at times like this, I’m in danger of thinking I’m wasting my time this season with the footie betting as I’m staking large amounts most weekends to not make much headway at all or has been the case recently, to make small losses. In these circumstances (I’ve been here a few times before with the footie betting and footie modelling as regular blog readers will know), my answer is usually to stand back and take a look at how things have gone over the season. It doesn’t change the profit I’ve made or the results the systems have had and I don’t know why but it usually helps me keep things in perspective by doing this.   I could even go further and look at things over the last couple of seasons but I only tend to do that when I’m really, really low about the performance of the systems. I’m not quite there yet!

So, how do the results look this season?

I think the below table gives us all the information we need on the season to date. So far, there have been 3,104 bets this season. I think we’ll have around 15,000 system bets this season in total, so I suspect we’re about 20% of the way through the season. Here are the results:

As always, there is a lot of information here and it isn’t easy to digest at first glance, so I’ll try to break it down into parts for us to look at.

Established Systems

At a high level, a 9.8% return across 870 bets and a 12.6% return for the combined systems across 332 bets isn’t a bad start to the season.  I think my only concern is the performance of systems 6-8 and the knock on effect this has on the combined systems.

A 1.8% ROI on system 6 isn’t great and although it improves as you move up to system 7 and system 8, returns of 2.7% and 5.5% don’t set the pulse racing I’m afraid. On the other hand, system 21 has a 14.3% return and system 22 has a 24.3% return and this is above average I suspect. So, we have the first rating algorithm a little below average, the second rating algorithm a little above average and we end up with some interesting results on the combined systems.

6-21, 7-21 and 8-21 performance is in line with expectations and as you filter the bets, the results improve. 7.1%, 17.9% and 21.1% are the returns as you move down the systems and this is nearly exactly in line with plan. If these systems finished like this for the season, I’d be happy.

The issue lies with 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22. The returns are 29.3%, 8.9% and -7.9%. It’s hard to explain or even understand why this has happened. Historically, if system 6-22 had that sort of return, the return of 7-22 and 8-22 would be astronomical but so far this season, it hasn’t happened.

My worry looking at this is that 6-22 is unlikely to continue with that sort of return and therefore, 7-22 and 8-22 may take a hit when 6-22 adjusts back to a normal return. Of course, these systems didn’t catch the upside, so maybe it’s pessimistic to think they’ll catch the downturn but it does worry me a little. 7-22 has only had 28 bets and 8-22 has only had 19 bets, so it may be the case that it is simply variance and as we get more bets, these systems will do what they have traditionally done and filter 6-22 successfully. Even if 6-22 does hit a barren spell, 7-22 and 8-22 may still filter the bets well and miss most of the losers, so it is too early to panic too much about 7-22 or 8-22 yet.

Overall, combining the systems does improve the returns from the single systems and therefore, most of the trends on these systems are OK. The correlation between 7,8 and 22 is the only thing that looks strange so far but maybe we’ll see a correction soon.

New Systems

These systems have definitely been the surprise package so far this season. Before I looked at the backtested results for the systems, I was very keen on the idea of cross referring systems 31-33 (which were live last season) with a new set of systems called 41-42 as I always felt like 31-33 were waiting on another set of systems to come along, built in the same manner that could help them realise their potential. Of course, the backtested results last season were poor (5.4% ROI overall and -1.7% ROI for the combined systems) and that led me to believe I may have been leading us up the garden path with believing these systems could be any good.

10 weeks of bets and all of a sudden, it looks like I may have paid too much attention to the results from last season and ignored the amazing results from the previous 5 seasons. What I would say in my defence is that we are only 20% of the way into the season, so it would be wrong to draw any conclusions at this time but so far, these systems look pretty decent (and that’s an understatement!)

15.3% ROI across 1,193 system bets in total and an ROI of 19.8% over 468 combined system bets. Fantastic returns and when you compare these returns to the Est systems, they have wiped the floor so far this season with the Est systems.

If I’m honest, I still struggle to believe the results on these systems and all historical evidence points to algorithm two (system 21) being my best rating algorithm, followed by algorithm one (system 6) with the other two algorithms (Systems 31 and 41) lagging behind. Therefore, the only algorithm that isn’t upholding their side of the bargain is algorithm one and therefore, I suspect once algorithm one clicks into gear this season (if it ever does!), then it will catch up with algorithms 3 and 4 and we’ll see the Est Systems overtake the New systems this season.

So far, so good.

Misc Systems

I was pleasantly surprised when I updated these results for the season to date as I give these systems quite a hard time. I think this is a hangover from last season and I was disappointed with these systems last season and the returns and they didn’t exactly start this season great either. However, now I look at the results, they aren’t bad at all and when you see some of the returns on the other systems in the portfolio this season, these systems are holding their own.

A 9.4% ROI across 571 bets is a decent enough return. The trends are strange though on some systems and this is a hangover from what has happened so far with the Est. systems this season. 21-31 wouldn’t be expected to perform better than 6-21-31 and yet, it has a return of 11.9% against 6.8%.

The most interesting for me is System TOX beating System STOY. All historical evidence points to STOY being stronger than TOX and yet, TOX has a 17% ROI and STOY has 0.5%!

These little quirks are partly due to variance I suspect but they are also due to the fact the correlation between the systems hasn’t shown the same trend this season as the last two seasons. In particular, the single Est systems have been very good at picking out teams that other systems may not agree with and it hasn’t impacted the returns too much. For example, system 21 is doing better than system 6-21 which is very strange also this season and this has a knock on effect onto some of these Misc Systems.

Overall, a decent start this season for the Misc systems and they are performing better than last season. Early days though but it does justify my confidence in continuing with these systems after the poor performance last season.

Under/Over Systems

Not going to say much here. A loss of 4.4pts from 95 bets and an ROI of -4.6%. I think break-even is about the best these systems can do this season and I’ll need some convincing to continue with these systems for another season. The overall ROI since they were live is down at 4.6% from 568 bets. I give these systems a hard time and being honest, the return isn’t bad but at the end of the day, I don’t have any belief in these systems generating a return long-term.

Euro Systems

The impact of the draw so far this season is clear to see in these results. At a high level, 2.2% ROI across 375 bets isn’t a disaster but unfortunately, this drops to a 6.1% loss across the 156 combined system bets.

If you look at AH0 (Draw No Bet) returns though, it is 7.5% and 5.4% across both sets of systems, so much better than what the outright returns are showing.

The other thing to highlight here has to be the filtering of the bets and how poorly it has worked so far this season. E1 has a 22.7% ROI and E6 has a 16.2% ROI. This really is dream returns for a base rating algorithm and without any filtering, these systems are doing themselves proud.

Unfortunately, E2 takes that amazing return and turns it into a 19.8% loss. Strangely, E3 takes that loss and turns it into a 12.9% profit! All very strange happenings with this first algorithm and the only conclusion you can draw is that it is simply variance. 30 bets on E2 and 15 bets on E3 are really nothing and it’s too early to draw conclusions.

Likewise, E7 takes the return on E6 and turns it into a loss of 19%. 

The only thing you can be sure of looking at these returns on the single system is that E1-E6 is going to do OK but the other 5 combined systems will struggle!

A 15.3pt return on E1-E6 is more than eaten up by fairly chunky losses on E1-E7 to E3-E7. Interestingly, all the 6 combined systems are showing small profits to AH0.5 betting, so it’s a clear indication that the draw is proving costly on these systems at the moment.

Again though, variance is playing a part and quite simply, the impact of the draw will dilute once we get more games on these systems I hope. Either that or we can just all back the selections as draws as we’ll make big profits!

Overall then, that’s a quick rundown of the systems so far this season. I’d be lying if I said it had been a good start this season but then again, maybe it’s simply a case of expectations getting out of control and should we really expect 45 degree P&Ls all the time, consistent monthly profits or dare I say it, winning seasons every season on all systems?  I think the last part is key to this. If I was only giving out bets on system 7-22 this season, I’m sure people would be pulling their hair out, looking at the results, questioning whether I knew what I was do, whether the ratings had lost their edge, whether the systems were no good any more and so on.  As this post shows me (and those reading it), there isn’t too much wrong this season. Yes, things haven’t exactly gone to plan but I’m sure people have had worse starts to a football season than we’re experiencing here!

As always, any questions or comments, post them up or email me directly.

As a bit of fun, I have ordered the results by system so far this season, based on ROI. How many of us are following systems in the top 10 this season so far?  Not too many I would have thought!

Catch up of results

I’ve managed to spend a fair bit of time over the weekend updating the results for the various systems over the past week or so. I hate falling behind with the results updating as I really pride myself on being able to track the results closely and in a timely manner as this provides full transparency for the service and the results. Hopefully I won’t fall too far behind again but given the way the last few months has gone, I’ll be amazed if I can keep on top of things like I did for the first couple of seasons. I’ll try my best though!

This results update covers 3 sets of fixtures. It covers last weekend (UK and Euro), midweek (UK only) and then the weekend past (UK and Euro). Hence, there are a lot of bets here and a lot of results to wade through. 

Before I get into the results detail, due to the fact there are no midweek games this week, I’m going to use my midweek to provide a quick review of the season to date. I know I provide daily updates of the results as well as monthly updates but sometimes, it does no harm to stand back and look at the season to date. It hasn’t exactly been plain sailing this season (far from it!) and a lot of the trends that were apparent in the first two seasons with the systems hasn’t been there so far this season and I’m sure that’s causing a little bit of anxiety amongst members of the service. I’m guessing this as it is causing me a little bit of anxiety, so I suspect I’m not alone!

I’ll touch on the these points in the season review to date though and therefore, I’ll stick to just updating the results in this post. Most of you following the systems will be fully aware of some of the trends this season but it does no harm if I point them out to everyone.

So, here’s an update of the recent results.

Established Systems

Another period of moving nowhere for these systems and they are frustrating me just a little. I know it’s better to standstill at times than move backwards but these systems are performing below par compared to the first two seasons. Of course, it is probably just variance and considering some of the bad periods these systems have had historically, this period feels like it’s nothing other than a quiet spell for the systems but it still frustrating at times.

There have been 186 bets and a loss of 0.31pts has been made. No damage done thankfully but then again, no headway has been made either. You can see that the AH returns are slightly better than the outright returns and again, this is frustrating to see. Quite clearly, the systems are hitting too many draws at the moment.

Overall, a lot of bets to move nowhere again and hopefully things pick up in the second half of this month.

New Systems

If the Established systems are frustrating me at the moment, then the New systems are continuing to surprise me! Another decent start to the month for these systems and a profit of 51.7pts from 243 bets. Amazingly, the AH returns drop off a cliff and quite simply, these New systems are hitting plenty of winners and losers which of course, is good news if following outright but not so good if using some form of draw coverage.

Considering that there are a great amount of selections that are appearing on both the Est systems and the New systems, it is amazing that the results over a couple of hundred of bets could be so different. The games that the New Systems are selecting that the Est Systems aren’t selecting are clearly doing very well which is frustrating for me and most of you guys following I suspect.

Given the returns last season for the New systems were so poor in backtesting compared to the live results of the Established systems, you have to believe that the Est systems are suffering from adverse variance whereas the New systems are experience positive variance.  Likewise, you can probably draw the conclusion the New systems were very unlucky last season to only break-even I suspect and we are now seeing a better indication of these systems.

My only worry though is that when the Est systems struggle, it is usually the case that there are too many draws which means that the AH returns get better and the outright returns get worse but these New systems seem to either be hitting winners or losers. Hence, more draws would reduce the outright returns and not really improve the AH returns too much, so it does appear to me that the New systems are maybe getting a little bit of luck on their side at the moment. We’ll see what happens over the remainder of the season but I’m not fully convinced by the New systems as yet.

Misc Systems

Although I’m pleased that these systems have generated a decent return since the last update, it makes the results from the Est Systems even more frustrating to me. We know that these Misc systems are nowhere near as good as the Est systems and it is very rare for these systems to have a better return than the Est Systems over any period of results. This season, some of these Misc systems are doing better than some of the Est combined systems and that is unheard of. In addition, all of these Misc systems use the Est systems to generate the bets on these systems, so the fact the Misc systems are doing better than the Est systems has to be down to variance and good luck!

Anyway, a profit of 24.83pts from 155 bets on these systems. A solid start to the month but these systems always tend to be a bit of boom and bust in my eyes, so I wouldn’t bank on these profits continuing at this rate! Likely to get better or worse if experience is anything to go by.

Under/Over Systems

I’d even go as far to say that it is rubbing salt into the wounds that these systems have actually created a profit this month so far.  A profit of 3.86pts from 30 bets this month is a nice steady return but considering the mess these systems usually make, it is amazing!  Similar to the Misc Systems, I wouldn’t expect these profits to continue if historical experience is anything to go by but we’ll see what happens.

Euro Systems

Well, if the Est Systems were frustrating, the Euro systems have me tearing my hair out (and I don’t have too much left these days!). At a high level, a loss of 6.7pts from 197 bets isn’t a disaster but when you see where the losses and profits are being made, it is sooooo annoying! Basically, all of the profits are coming from the high odds winners who only tend to appear on E1 and E6 (and hence E1-E6) but as you start filtering out the bets to get the stronger bets, things are going badly wrong. The weekend past had 3 very high value home bets. All 3 teams dominated, all 3 teams couldn’t score in a brothel and all 3 games finished 0-0.

Using draw coverage is all fine and well on Aways but for Home bets, you can’t really use any draw coverage and therefore, draws are a nightmare for these systems. I dread to think how many draws these systems have had this season (a crazy amount!)

For example, system E3-E7 has had 10 bets this season. Bear in mind this is the strongest bets these Euro systems have. 10 bets, 3 winners, 6 draws and 1 loser. A nightmare really and when you are hitting 60% draws, you have no chance of making profits (unless you are backing the draw I guess!)

I said before the season started that I was wary of draws on the Euro systems as historically during backtesting, draws have caused some issues with profitability over spells of bets and this season has been no different. Again, backtesting would indicate that nothing outside the norm has happened (well, aside from 60% draws on the best system) and hopefully things revert back to the long-term soon but with a new set of systems, it does worry me a little bit when you see a period like this so early on.

The strike rate on the high value bets is terrible, the strike rate on the weaker bets (especially the high odds teams) is amazing and therefore, you have to assume this is variance causing this. Either that or we should just be backing these big priced Euro aways at 5/1+ as these are creating all the profits so far!

Overall then, since the last update, a profit of 73.38pts from 811 bets. If anyone has made any profit at all since the last update, they have clearly been following the wrong systems this season based on the historical experience! I’ve managed to give back a good chunk of my profits for the season to date and I’m looking forward to when the positive variance starts coming my way as I could do with some good fortune……..

Next post will be a review of the season to date.

October 2012 Monthly Review

As the title suggests, this is the monthly report for October 2012. I’ll cover all 5 sets of systems in this review of the month. I did say a few weeks back that I would have liked to do a separate post for each set of systems but lack of time means this isn’t an option.

Established Systems

At a high level, the profit of 12.7pts from 410 bets generated a return of 3.1% on the month. The combined systems made a profit of 4.6pts from 157 bets for an ROI of 3.0%.  Hence, it wasn’t a disaster but it wasn’t the most pleasing month.

I’ll start with the positives. It is the 10^th straight month of profits for the combined systems and it is the 17^th profitable month from 20 months of live results. Based on these two facts alone, I can’t be too disappointed that the systems haven’t exactly set the world alight this month. When things don’t go well, to generate any sort of profit is an achievement and in that sense, I’m not too downbeat about the month.

However, when you look at the results by system, it is very frustrating this month.

Firstly, algorithm two has had a storming month. System 21 generated a profit of 16.3pts from 71 bets and system 22 has generated a profit of 6.2pts from 27 bets. Both these results generated a return of 23% on the month and therefore, a really good performance from algorithm two this month.

The issue in the month lies with algorithm one though. System 6 generated a profit of 2.2pts from 101 bets which if I’m honest, isn’t a disaster. Usually, when system 6 has a month like this, systems 7 and 8 will take the bets, weed out the worst performing bets and we end up with systems 7 and 8 having a good month.

System 7 managed to take the 101 bets from system 6, find the 35 strong bets and turn a 2.1% profit into a 32.5% loss. Ouch!

To only hit 8 winners from 36 bets on system 7 is very poor and a loss of 11.7pts. It is the 2^nd worst month that system 7 has had since it went live which shows how bad the month was.

System 8 didn’t really have much chance after the mess system 7 made of things and system 8 made a loss of 5pts from 18 bets.  This was the 3^rd worst month that system 8 has had since it went live.

Based on what I’ve said regarding system 7 and system 8, it is actually quite astonishing that the combined systems managed to make any profit on the month!

When you analyse the results though, you can see that all the profits were generated from 6-21 and 6-22 which makes sense. If 7 and 8 were doing their best to pick losers, then 7-21 to 8-22 didn’t have much chance of a profit at all and it shows in the results.

7-21 to 8-22 only hit 18 winners from 69 bets and therefore, a loss had to be made. The fact it was only a loss of 12pts is a bit of an achievement when you think how bad systems 7 and 8 were this month!

Thankfully, 6-21 and 6-22 bailed out the combined systems this month and when you add all 6 systems up, another profit was made for these systems.

New Systems

Interestingly, many of the same trends that were apparent with the first two rating algorithms are apparent with these DNB ratings for this month. At a high level, a profit of 9.9pts from 562 bets to generate an ROI of 1.8% across all systems.  The combined systems didn’t have as much luck though and it was a loss of 6.9pts from 210 bets this month.

Given the first month these systems had this season, this month hasn’t been a disaster and at one point, I thought the systems were going to give most of the profits away they made in September but they ended the month well and to achieve any sort of profit on the month is quite pleasing I think.

The base ratings did their job well and systems 31 and 41 both had good months. A profit of 7.5% on algorithm 3 and a profit of 13.6% on algorithm 4. However, trying to narrow down these bets was quite difficult and interestingly, even when 31 and 41 agreed on the bets, they didn’t agree on the winners as often as I’d like!

System 32 did the same sort of thing as system 7 and managed to take a winning set of ratings and pick out too many losers to create a loss on the month. System 32 only hit 7 winners from 37 bets which is poor considering it was picking from a sample which had 30 winners from 93 bets!

Interestingly, system 33 did an amazing job and taking the 7 winners from 37 bets, the system picked out 16 bets and hit 5 winners! Hence, the 21 bets that dropped off system 32 before making it to system 33 only contained 2 winners. Makes me smile seeing stuff like this as this shows that even though not a lot went right this month, it wasn’t all bad.

System 42 did even worse. System 41 had a profit of 13.6% and yet, system 42 turned this into a loss of 1.5% when narrowing down the bets.

The combined systems were a bit all over the place and 3 of them made profits and 3 of them made losses. Overall though, a loss was achieved.

Summing up, not the greatest month for these systems but after the fireworks in September, a steady month is no disaster. The overall ROI for the season to date is still amazing on these systems but as I keep saying, it’s too early to draw any conclusions. So far, so good though.

Misc Systems

A bit of a nothing month for these systems if I’m honest. A profit of 5.9pts from 249 bets just about sums up the month. 4 systems made small profits, 2 systems made small losses.

If I’m being positive, it at least consolidates the profits from September and they’ve not done any damage during a tricky month for the systems in general but the more I see these systems, the more they disappoint me.

Interestingly, two months into the season and the ROI across these systems is nearly identical to the ROI these systems achieved last season. These systems won’t damage your P&L I suspect in the long-run but then again, they won’t make you a fortune either.

Anyway, an OK month and we move onto November to see what these systems do next.

Under/Over Systems

I’m fed up moaning about these systems. I don’t regret too much with the my football modelling but trying to build systems for this market is one regret I do have I think!

Another small losing month and I can’t help but feel the systems are just going to end up making small profits/losses every month as I don’t believe they have an edge. Maybe they do and it’s simply the fact I don’t like betting on these markets myself that is clouding my judgement but I just feel like it’s like betting on a toss of a coin every game and with the high overround in this market in the low leagues, the systems would need a big edge to show any form of profit in the long-run.

Anyway, the results show a small loss of 3.1pts from 41 bets this month. The systems are running at an ROI of only 4.2% now since they went live last season and compared to the other systems I’m running, these systems are the black sheep of the family.

I’ll keep going with them until the end of the season to see how the fare in the longer term but as time goes by, my confidence in the systems diminish!

Euro Systems

Well, the first month of live results for these systems and at a high level, a small profit was achieved.  Given the systems started with days of -11pts, -21pts, -5pts, -8.3pts, +3.1pts and -13pts, it seems like it’s been a great month to actually end up with any profit at all!

A profit of 15.1pts from 178 bets is a solid start but a quick look at the AH returns shows why it has been a tricky first month for these systems. I was fully aware before the season started that the draw is likely to be a pest on these systems and that has been the case this month. Even so, I can’t complain too much about the month’s profits.

The combined systems started with 2.6pts profit from 73 bets which again, is no great profit but then again, it beats a loss.

It’s too early to draw any conclusions from these systems as they only have one month of live results behind them but it’s been a solid enough start.

Overall then, I think that summarises the month of October. If September was a great a start to the season, then October has been a month of consolidation with probably a little bit of the profit given back from the gains made in September but it hasn’t been a disastrous month by any means.

Let’s see what November brings…….

Results Update - 30th & 31st October

Apologies for the lack of updates on the blog again. Been a very busy time at work which has meant early starts and late finishes for me most days for a few weeks now. This has basically meant all my spare time is used updating the football ratings and ensuring I can get the bets out on time. I’m just about managing to keep on top of the 6 rating algorithms I run these days but it comes at a cost of doing regular blog updates concerning the results. I’m hoping to get up to date a little on the blog this weekend.

As the title suggests, this is a quick update from the midweek results two weeks ago. There were only European bets as there were no UK leagues in action.

Cagliari winning easily ensured it was a profitable end to the month for the European systems in their first month of live results.

The results are shown in the table but it was a profit of 6.4pts from 27 bets.

My next post will hopefully be the monthly report for October which is about a week overdue!

Results Update

Going into the weekend, I was pretty downbeat if I’m honest. It sort of followed on from the last blog post and due to the fact I was behind with my results updating, I was sort of resigned to the fact the systems were having a nightmare month and it would be losses across the board for October.

There are two main reasons for my mood I suspect. Firstly, whether I want to admit it or now, I tend to concentrate solely on a few key systems and when these systems are struggling, I tend to think the ratings are struggling. This is a little unfair as the whole point of having so many bets and systems is to try to smooth the P&L where possible but I can’t help feel that system 7-22 is what a good number of people judge my service on. Hence, no matter the P&L for the month, when 7-22 is struggling, my systems are seen to be struggling.

The second reason is simply the fact that I honestly didn’t know the P&L for the month. As you will have noticed before on the blog, I take great pride in always knowing how the systems are doing and therefore, going into the weekend past, I had absolutely no idea of the P&L on any system. I knew the recent results were shocking, the early part of the month didn’t feel like it was great either and therefore, my confidence wasn’t exactly flying high going into the weekend.

However, as I said on the last blog post, the biggest advantage of following automated systems these days is the fact that the mental strain feels a lot less. I can’t speak for everyone following the systems this season as not everyone will share the same thoughts I have but basically, if I was picking which teams had to appear on each system, after the month I’ve had punting, let’s just say I don’t think I could have been confident I’d have called it correctly! Thankfully, there is no human element involved here and the systems just continue churning out the same bets as they always do, regardless of recent results.

So, how did the weekend pan out?

Well, if I judge it solely on system 7-22 (as tends to be the way I look at things), it was another tough weekend. 1 winner from 5 again and ultimately, system 7-22 is on its biggest drawdown for 12 months. Not a disaster yet by any means but not exactly what I hoped to see from my flagship system in the second month of the season! I’m sure it will return to normality soon. :)

Looking at the results more subjectively, it was a much, much better weekend. The established systems, the new systems, the misc systems, the Under/Over systems and the Euro systems all made profits this weekend. Given the run they were all on going into this weekend, it’s another great example of why you just need to go with the flow at this game and not get too bogged down by the most recent results.

I was particularly pleased to see the Euro systems have their first winning weekend this season. These systems are the baby systems of the family and they haven’t had the best of luck in their first live month with draws (been far too many of them!) but it’s nice to see them ending the month strongly. I was a little premature in saying they’ll start with a losing month and depending on the results in Italy this midweek, these systems could actually start their first month with a profit which would be some going, given the start they had this month!

Overall, a much better weekend and thankfully, the month looks a lot brighter than it did before the weekend. I’ve not had time to analyse the monthly results yet but things aren’t all doom and gloom as I thought a few days ago!

Right, this is an update of two weekends ago, the midweek and then the weekend past.

Established Systems

The results two weekends ago were nowhere near as bad as it was on the other systems. An overall loss of 2.78pts from 52 games was a great performance (compared to other systems) but the wheels fell off in midweek unfortunately.  A 41.55pts loss from 72 bets which was a shocking performance. The systems redeemed themselves a little at the weekend though with a profit of 48.46pts from 109 bets.

Overall, 4.13pts profit from 233 bets. A return of 1.77% may not seem like much but when you think how bad it was before the weekend past, I’ll take it with both hands! If someone had offered me this return on Thursday night, I’d have snapped their hand off.

New Systems

A terrible couple of weeks for these systems although given the first month and a half they had this season, I’m not overly surprised they have hit a tough spell. If they continued like the way they started the season, I’d have rewritten the record books for system results!

The results from two weekends ago were terrible and they didn’t get any better last midweek either.  35.73pts lost from 109 bets at the weekend and then another 41.79pts lost from 86 bets during the week. Things were much better at the weekend past which has helped get things back on track a little. A profit of 44.36pts from 116 bets.

Overall, a loss of 33.16pts from 311 bets.  As I said above, not a great update for these systems but then again, I’m not sure I expected them to continue like they started the season!

Misc Systems

 

These systems follow the same pattern of the new systems to a great extent.  They dug themselves in a massive hole and managed to recoup much of the losses at the weekend past.

25.50pts lost from 36 bets two weekends ago and 30.50pts lost from 51 bets during the week. Thankfully, a profit of 46.50pts from 49 bets at the weekend has helped reduce the damage considerably this month.

Overall, a loss of 9.50pts from 136 bets. Again, not a great update for these systems but it looked like being much worse before the weekend!

Under/Over Systems

I still dislike these systems. I dislike the market they play in, I dislike the odds overrounds, I dislike the methodology I’m using to derive the bets and most of all, I dislike the results! I’m not sure I’ve ever hid my contempt for these systems but the more I see the bets and results, the more rubbish I think they are!

Anyway, my thoughts aside, they have actually made a small profit since the last update. A profit of 1.18pts from 22 bets. 

Euro Systems

I think the one thing that I should highlight here would be the AH returns. Clearly, when the systems are hitting a fair number of draws, the AH returns will come to the fore and you can definitely see that trend with these European systems.

Two weekends ago, a loss of 13.3pts from 52 bets. However, a much better weekend past and a profit of 53.9pts from 67 games.

Overall, a profit of 40.6pts from 119 bets. The AH returns aren’t much different though and using AH0 for example generated 41pts. Very rare to see AH0 returns so close to outright returns over a large sample of bets as this but it’s a clear indication that the systems are hitting a bit too many draws at the moment!

In summary then, a clear pattern across the piece where two weekends ago was terrible, the last midweek was even worse but the weekend past was a great weekend and brought things back into line with the long-term average!

I make it a profit of 3.25pts from 821 bets since the last update. I’ve said this lots of times before on the blog about the systems but the reason the systems are so good has little to do with their ability to generate profits from winning runs! That’s the easy part of this game. When things are going well, making profits is easy. However, when things aren’t going well, when the ratings are struggling, when things aren’t going your way with late goals, red cards and so on, managing to keep hold of your profits is much more difficult. I’d be lying if I said the ratings and systems have had a good time of it since the last update but at the end of the day, a two week spell isn’t a long time in the course of a season. The fact they have generated a tiny profit in this time is amazing to me, especially when you consider the results before the weekend past!

Yes, I’m sure people are reading this and thinking, jeez, that’s a lot of work for not a lot of return but clearly, no one is following all these systems. Within the subset of systems, there are some systems that have struggled badly over the last two weeks (none more so than system 7-22!) but likewise, there are some systems that have generated decent profits over the same spell. Hence, we’ll see more when we analyse the monthly results later on this week.

I suspect I may well split the monthly report into different blog posts this week. There is nothing to stop me from doing the UK systems now and the Euro systems after the midweek Italian games. I’ll be back in a day or so with the first monthly report.  Have the established systems managed to keep their run going for monthly profits? We’ll see…….

Red Cards + Draws + Defeats = P&L Loss

As is likely to happen more and more this season, I’m struggling to get the time to update the blog for the results. All my time is being eaten up updating the ratings for all the various leagues in preparation for the next set of bets, so trying to update my results sheets is difficult. I’ll do it as regularly as I can but I’m now missing an update from the weekend and the midweek past.

As the title is hinting at (not very subtle admittedly), it has been a terrible last couple of fixtures.  I think that’s the issue with having so many systems on the go at once. When things go bad, they really go tits up!

The weekend was interesting in the sense the new systems were all over a number of teams, the established systems had fewer bets than I would normally expect and the Euro systems were all over two teams.

It ended up in utter carnage with a crazy number of red cards for my selections. I did a quick check and 25% of the bets ended up with 10 men! That doesn’t help at any time but on a bad weekend, it just makes things worse.

The established systems did a great job in limiting the damage by just not having a lot of bets but the New systems lost a good chunk of the profits they made last month and the Euro systems had a nightmare. I call it a nightmare but it was all down to two games and both games were draws. I think that means the first 12 bets on Systems E2-E6 to E3-E7 in total have all finished draws. Not exactly the dream start I was hoping for with the Euro systems!

Anyway, after that disaster, I was updating the ratings on Sunday night and I had a quick check of the odds available and then took a massive gulp.  My established systems were going to be all over a number of teams as my ratings appeared a good bit out of sync with the bookmaker odds. The new systems were similar and quite quickly, I could tell it was going to be a busy midweek.

So, after the disaster the new systems had at the weekend, I wasn’t exactly licking my lips at the fact they were in agreement with the established systems but surely, a good night was due?

Errr…no. It was actually much, much worse than the weekend as the established systems got caught up in the carnage this time.  I’ve not actually got the P&L from the midweek (I really am behind as I was away down to London early today) but I can tell you it was nearly a wipeout on a busy midweek fixture card which isn’t going to be good news for the P&L.

What does all this mean?  Well, in summary, my established systems are going to have their first losing month since Sep-11, my new systems are going to give back a massive chunk (if not all) of the amazing profits they made last month and the new Euro systems are going to kick off the season with a really bad losing month in their first month live which doesn’t exactly fill me with a great deal of confidence for the rest of the season.

It’s amazing how things can change at this game. 3 weeks ago, the systems had started the season well, everything was rosy and it looked like this game was easy and we were licking our lips for the Euro systems to start so we could beat the bookmakers up more. Making money from the bookmakers was like taking sweeties off a kid. 

I expect a few new subscribers are thinking to themselves, WTF is going on here, this isn’t meant to happen but that’s the great thing about having a couple of seasons behind us now with the systems. I’ve seen it all before and at the end of the day, the systems don’t know they are costing me and a good number of followers a small fortune at the moment, so they’ll just continue punting out the same bets they’ve been punting out for the last couple of seasons.

I guess you could say I was due a bad run as there is only so long you can outrun variance and my systems were giving it a good go with 9 betting months of straight profits but all good things must come to an end.

We’ll see what this weekend brings and I’ll try to update the results over the weekend at some point to get things back up to speed on the blog.