Final results update for March

Going to keep this really short. I almost forgot about doing a post with these results as I started on the monthly review! The monthly review is written though and I’ll post it after this post. I know no one would mind me skipping a results post as all the results are in the monthly review but I like the fact that every single live result is on the blog for people to see.

Thankfully, the end to March was better than the rest of the month and it reduced the losses slightly. Saying that, March still smashed all records I have, so you can read about this in the monthly review.

Est Systems

24 winners from 42 bets and a profit of 26.47pts.

New Systems

A loss of 2.22pts from 74 bets. Another losing day for these systems in March. Every day bar two were losing days!

Misc Systems

22 winners from 44 bets although STOZ again disappointed. 20.64pts profit.

Draw Systems

26 winners from 63 bets and a good end to a difficult month for these systems. A profit of 26.49pts.

Euro Systems

 20.1pts profit from 63 bets.

Under-Over Systems

 2 winners from 4 bets for a profit of 0.2pts.

Overall, a profit of 91.68pts from 290 bets. A nice way to end the worst month I’ve ever seen! Unfortunately, even with these results, it doesn’t change the fact that March was a disaster across the board.

Next post will be the monthly review.

Nope.....this is the worst results update ever!

I’m going to keep this update very short. I’ll be writing the monthly review early next week after the weekend results and therefore, I’m not going to post too many thoughts here. Let’s just say that if the last results update was my worst ever results update, things have got much worse. Since my own portfolio P&L peaked on 1^st of March, I’ve lost a helluva lot since then. My worst ever drawdown and the fact it has happened in the space of 4 weeks is quite incredible but as I’ve said lots of times on the blog, your worst drawdown is always in front of you. Didn’t expect it to happen so quickly though. My previous largest drawdown was spread over months rather than days!

Anyway, here’s the system results update. It’s not pretty. :(

Est Systems

Only 29 winners from 123 bets. A loss of 26.30pts.

New Systems

Another 100pt loss for the second half of the month on these systems. Unbelievable really. Only 43 winners from 231 bets and a loss of 104.28pts.  Ouch!

Misc Systems

Only 21 winners from 116 bets. A loss of 46.90pts. STOZ is on a new historic drawdown which is a little crazy considering all of the picks on STOZ appear on system 31 too! Hence, it sort of sums up  how unbelievable this season has been.

Draw Systems

Only 24 draws from 164 bets. Sums this month up that even the best performing systems this season can’t find many winners! A loss of 84.91pts from 164 bets. Ouch!

Euro Systems

56 winners from 143 bets. A profit of 56.8pts.

Under/Over Systems

A loss of 0.61pts from 7 bets.

Overall, a loss of 206.2pts from 784 bets. An ROI of -26.3%!

Well, as I said above, the last update wasn’t the worst ever, this is.

There are 290 system bets this weekend. Given the systems are nearly 400pts down this month, this month is likely to smash every record I have for any monthly results for my systems going back to 2006! The fact this month has happened during a season that was already very tricky just makes the season a disaster. After 3 amazingly good seasons, it’s a shame we’re suffering an amazingly bad season but as I keep trying to tell myself, think long-term. Much easier said than done……..

Worst Results Update Ever?

In the 4 years I’ve had the blog, there have been various results updates whereby the systems have suffered large losses but I honestly can’t remember too many updates as bad as this one. When you put this comment together with the context that this season has been the toughest season to date for the systems and you can understand how shi* I’m feeling at the moment.

It’s hard to put into words how frustrating and annoying the last week has been. The systems started the month OK and managed to make some early gains off the back of a good end to last month but the last week and a bit has been torture. Two weekends ago was painful, the midweek was painful and then the weekend just past was something like Armageddon.  Put all this together and what you have is a results update that isn’t going to make pretty reading.

The scary thing about March is that we’re only halfway through the month! This month has the potential to be the biggest losing month any set of systems has ever experienced I suspect. I’m not looking forward to this if it happens! On the other hand, the systems could dig themselves out the shi* and clawback some losses but given the way this season has going and the number of disappointments I’ve had, I wouldn’t be surprised if the systems set some unwanted records this month.

Anyway, here’s goes.

Est Systems

A loss of 38.03pts from 142 bets. Only 37 winners from 142 bets.  The draw had a massive impact on these systems with a profit of 25.4pts from AH0.5 betting.

The month started OK but the weekend past saw 6 winners from 63 bets. Hopeless!

New Systems

Wow! A loss of 97.73pts from 267 bets. Only 64 winners from 267 bets. Amazingly, AH0.5 had a profit of 32.71pts. A swing of 130pts if dutching the draw and the selection rather than backing the selection! Shows where the issue has been.

Misc Systems

A loss of 61.71pts from 115 bets.  Only 20 winners from 115 bets. Same story as the other systems really. AH0.5 made a profit of 17.81pts. Don’t you just love draws! :(

Draw Systems

Well, I said it above. Don’t you just love Draws! A profit of 101pts from 257 bets. I’ve very rarely had a set of systems win 100pts in an update but given what has happened to the other systems above, you can maybe see why the Draw systems have had such a good time! It was difficult to lose.

106 winners from 257 bets is unreal for a set of Draw systems and these systems have far exceeded any expectations I had for them this season. Unfortunately, most of my other systems haven’t come anywhere near expectations I had for them this season!

Euro Systems

These systems have dropped off a cliff for the second season running! It is like Déjà vu when you look at the P&L for last season and this season.

A loss of 92.4pts from 312 bets. The systems are slightly worse than break-even for the season now which is probably a fair reflection of their performance this season.

Even after a poor performance so far this month, backing the selections to Draw this season has created more profit than backing the selections to win!  Two seasons running this has been the case. I’ll draw any conclusions at the season end as usual but at the moment, it’s clear my ratings methodology can’t find an edge in these 4 Euro leagues if backing outright.

Under-Over Systems

A profit of 1.53pts from 5 games.

Overall, a loss of 187.34pts from 1,098 bets. A -17% ROI.

As I said in the intro, I can’t recall too many updates as bad as this but given the way this season has gone, maybe I shouldn’t be too surprised.

The rollercoaster this season is hard to take tbh. I reached a new peak for my own portfolio P&L on 1^st March and my previous peak was 4^th of January. Since the 1^st of March, I have had one winning day and I’m in the midst of another substantial drawdown. This will be my 4^th large drawdown this season! Every drawdown (apart from the first one where I had no profit!) has started as soon as a new peak in my P&L has been reached after the previous drawdown. I guess the question is….Do I have enough time left this season to reach a new peak? Not sure. Given how quickly the drawdowns seem to start after reaching a new peak, not sure I’m looking forward to the next peak anyway! 

February 2014 Monthly Review

Going to try to keep this review a little shorter than last month which shouldn’t be too difficult. ;)

It felt like it has been a very long month even though it’s the shortest month of the season. I think the feeling comes from the fact the last 3 weeks of January were torture and the first few weeks this month felt just as bad and therefore, it has been a really tough time mentally again. However, things turned in the last week of the month and now I’ve reached the end of the month, it feels like a bit of a relief to have had a decent month.

Looking at the results over the last few months together now, apart from the first two months this season, the last 4 months have been very solid and therefore, the systems have steadied the ship after the nightmare start this season. I expect we’ll all view the first few weeks of bets for the season differently after what happened this season but we can deal with this in the Summer.

Here’s the monthly review.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm one:

A return of 6.5pts from 66 bets. An ROI of 9.9%. A really solid month for this algorithm. Aways made 6.9pts whereas Homes made a small loss.

The results by value bands are interesting. For the Aways, the higher bands did well as usual and there was another fairly large loss in the lowest band. The Homes showed the complete opposite with all the profits in the low value bands with losses in the larger bands.

The results for algorithm two:

A return of 4.5pts from 41 bets. An ROI of 11%. Similar comments to the first algorithm and a solid profit this month. Aways did really well and made 7.2pts whereas Homes lost 2.7pts.

The low value Away bets again lost month although the 5%-10% band seemed to do really well. As always, hard to draw conclusions from very small samples and I did a detailed post on the value bands recently. I’ll update the value bands performance at the end of the season.

Here’s the results of the Est Systems for this month:

A solid month this month for these systems and a large chunk of the losses recouped. Not enough profit to wipe out the season losses but another month like this and these systems could be in profit this season. That would be some achievement considering the first 2 months of losses!

A profit of 44.6pts from 225 bets. An ROI of 19.8%.

10 of the 11 systems made a profit. Not surprised to see that system 8-22 was the system that made a loss. The system has struggled all season and therefore, this trend continues even in a month when all other systems made a profit.

The filtering worked fairly well this month which is a change compared to most of the season. 8-22 is the only system whereby the filtering didn’t work.

The combined systems also had a decent month and that makes a change too.

Overall, a good month and a month that has been long overdue. How I’d like to see another good month next season and for these systems to get back to break-even but I’m just glad they have taken a step forward after the season they have had so far!

New Systems

Here’s the results from algorithm 3:

A stunning month for algorithm three after a disappointing losing month last month. A profit of 24.3pts from 82 bets. Homes made 13.4pts with Aways making 11pts. The best month for this algorithm since Mar-13.

The low value away bets had a very bad month but the other away bets did well. The Homes did well in the highest band with 1 winner from 3 but as always, difficult to draw conclusions from the sample sizes.

Algorithm 4 results:           

A great month for this algorithm too with a profit of 11.9pts from 100 bets. Homes made 6.1pts from only 34 bets and Aways made 5.8pts from 66 bets.

We can see the issue this algorithm had with the low value away bets and a loss of 12.6pts from 33 bets. Again, everything continues to point to these low value bets (<5%) pulling down the returns of the algorithms and the systems and it has been this way for most of the season. Opposite picture on the Homes though where the low value bets did well.

Here’s the results for the New Systems this month:

I’ll start with the positives!

A profit of 80.7pts from 415 bets with an ROI of 19.4%. A really good month and not far off the 100pt profit month that these systems seem to regularly manage to achieve.

The filtering worked well on algorithm 4 whereby system 42 improved on system 41 but it has gone really badly wrong on algorithm 3.

System 31 did amazingly well but system 32 didn’t do quite as well. However, the real issue lies with system 33 and it has taken the bets on system 32 and filtered out the winners mainly. 8 bets on system 33 and a loss of 3.1pts.

This impacted the combined systems with 33-41 and 33-42 having a losing month which is very disappointing. Again, I’m not totally surprised as these systems have struggled all season and when a month like this occurs and these 2 systems lose money, you know they are not going to have a good season!

The positive has to be the returns on system 31-42 as I know it’s a very popular system and it has struggled most of the season but it has finally taken a step forward this month.

Overall, a really good month for these systems although if system 33-41 and system 33-42 had done better, the systems would have easily smashed the 100pts+ profit mark this month.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for this month:

At an overall level, a profit of 20.7pts from 188 bets would have to go down as a decent month. 5 of the 6 systems in profit and therefore, it’s hard to be too critical.

However, going into this season, system STOZ was probably the system I was most confident about after the last two seasons but for whatever reason, this system is really, really struggling! No surprise to see it make a loss this month when the other 5 systems had much better months, it’s been this way all season.

I think the other disappointing thing with these systems in total this month is that the Home bets made a loss again. Again, going into this season, the Home bets on TOX, STOY and STOZ were without a doubt my strongest home bets but this season, they just haven’t clicked on these systems at all.

I keep saying it every month but this season looks nothing like previous seasons and many of the trends coming into this season haven’t been mirrored this season.

Overall, a good month but not a spectacular month but it helps to build on the profits over the last few months.

Draw Systems

I’m starting to love these systems!  Here’s the results for this month:

Only thing I can say I think is WOW! 86.8pts profit from 307 bets. An ROI of 28.3%.

The power of the combined systems can be seen this month. System D6 was basically break-even but the combined systems benefited from being cross referred with system D1. If I was being critical, it’s slightly annoying that the highest two combined systems filtered out all the profits but as always, with these very small sample sizes for the higher combined systems, anything can happen I suspect.

Apart from the blip in the first month of the season (and to be fair, they were unlucky with late goals), these systems have made good profits consistently and a few of these combined systems must be in the running for TFA system of the season. Long way to go and we’ll see what the next few months bring but my confidence in these systems have grown almost every week since the end of the first month and it’s not unrealistic to think that going into next season, I may have more confidence in the draw systems than any other systems! Didn’t think I’d be saying that 12 months ago.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results this month:

Another solid month for these systems with a profit of 22.2pts from 249 bets. An ROI of 8.9%.

Interestingly, E3 seemed to be very selective this month and this had a knock-on effect on E3-E6 and E3-E7. However, E3 did hit 2 winners from 3 and therefore, I can’t really complain.

I keep the saying the same every month but it’s difficult to draw conclusions with these Euro bets as there is so much of the season to go for these bets compared to the UK bets and therefore, I don’t want to jump to the conclusion that I have developed some ratings that work in the Euro leagues until we see many more bets. In addition, I was burnt last season from thinking I may have got something to work in these leagues, so things can turn quickly.

So far, 5 months of results, 4 months of profits and my confidence builds very slowly in these systems but happy to get to the end of the season and try to see what the results look like.

Under-Over Systems

Here’s the results:

An absolute nothing month really. Break-even from 26 bets. Based on this season so far, that’s a good result for these systems!

Overall

A profit of 255pts from 1,410 bets. An ROI of 18.1%.

A badly needed month if I’m honest and this month helps to bring an air of respectability to the results of the service this season.  I’ll need a few more months like this for this season to be anything other than disappointing for me personally but seeing so many systems in profit now and seeing the overall system results gives me a little bit of satisfaction. Of course, I would have wished for the profits to be spread more evenly across systems and seeing the draw systems do quite as well as this in their debut season is slightly frustrating but thinking longer-term, these systems are going to be a useful addition to my portfolio of systems which is what I hoped when I set out developing the draw systems.

We’re now 2/3 of the way through the season now. The first third was very disappointing and largely unprofitable; the second third has been much better and has been very profitable. The last third will determine how this season is remembered……

Results update to end the month........

It has been an amazing week for the systems with a brilliant weekend, followed by a really solid midweek. I really do think some of the trends at this game are amazing. The last week of February looks very much like the first week of January but the 6 weeks in between were absolutely rubbish! I felt terrible at the end of January having watched the systems lose most of the profit won and now we’re at the end of February, I feel amazing about the month I’ve just had and the fact the systems turned things around just in time to end the month in profit.  Timing of profits is everything at this game!

I’ll keep my thoughts on the month until the monthly review as usual. Here are the results for the last week.

Est Systems

47 winners from 76 bets is always going to mean a big profit. A profit of 70.86pts. Long, long overdue for these systems and the fact they are still not in profit this season tells you everything you need to know about these systems this season!

The pleasing thing with this update has to be the combined systems with a profit of over 33pts from 24 bets. They’ve really struggled this season and remain in a loss making position but break-even is in sight although I’ve been here a few times before and they’ve slipped back again!

New Systems

I think this is one of the best updates I can remember for a week of bets for any of my systems. A profit of 92.14pts from 143 bets. Fantastic return.

System 31 deserves all the praise with a profit of 24.19pts from 27 bets. Stunning performance from this system again. :)

Misc Systems

A really good performance with a profit of 49.1pts from 72 bets. STOZ was again the worst performing system. Same story as all season!

Draw Systems

A profit of 6.93pts from 124 bets. Not the best update but they’ve had a great month so far whereas the previous systems were all having a shocking month. Hence, I’ll take a small profit. :)

Euro Systems

A really poor update for these systems. A loss of 21.2pts from 59 bets. Similar to the Draw systems, these systems have had an OK month until the last week and therefore, not going to give them too much of a hard time with a loss to end the month.

Under/Over Systems

6 winners from 13 bets and a profit of 0.21pts. Retirement beckons……

Overall, a profit of 198pts from 487 bets. An ROI of 40.6%. :)

A really good way to end a really tough month and I expect when we look at the month as a whole, it has been a pretty solid month. As always, I wish the profits would come every week rather than suffering losses for weeks in a row and then a massive profit to turn things around!

Next post will be the monthly review.

A quick look at value ratings this season for unique bets

(The below was written before tonight's bets. I meant to post it last night but didn't have time)

Before I get onto the purpose of this post, I want to say a few words on the discussion I had with Tage in the comments section on the last post. Tage has been a member of TFA for a while (3 seasons I think) and therefore, we’ve exchanged numerous emails on the performance of the systems and the ratings and Tage has always been supportive of TFA. Over the years, we’ve not always seen eye to eye on everything and I know Tage has his own views on the service, the systems and what I should do differently in terms of following the systems and running the service. However, like all TFA members, I respect his views and I agree with a lot of what he says but I also have my own views (as do others) and therefore, I do what I want to do with the ratings, the systems and the service.

Tage was a little annoyed that I butted into his conversation on the last post when he said Vidar’s staking plan was “wrong”. There is no right or wrong way to follow TFA and therefore, I’m not going to have one member telling other members they are doing things wrongly. Everyone can do what they want with the bets and if someone wants to have a staking plan of 0-1,000,000pts, they can do so as it’s their choice. Might not be the staking plan Tage would choose but it’s not his staking plan. 

I think we’re all still learning about TFA and the ratings, the systems, the draws, the Euros and so on and I expect it will always be a continual learning process for all of us but that’s part of the fun I think of following TFA. It’s what makes TFA fairly unique and ultimately, it’s why some people follow TFA believe it or not. It’s a challenge at times but I’ve had so many notes over the years from people talking about how good TFA has been for their betting, not only with the profits from the systems but the way it allows you to do different things with staking and portfolio bets and it has taught them a great deal about betting and how to make a profit and therefore, I don’t want that element curtailed.

I think it’s great Tage shared his thoughts on the blog and as subscribers will know, I allowed Tage to share a report earlier this season on why staking so much on some teams wasn’t worth the returns for the additional volatility it brings and I think all of us can learn from Tage after what has happened this season! However, at the end of the day, Tage can’t be telling people that their strategy is wrong when they are in profit and others are not in profit!

Anyway, I apologised to Tage for stepping into the discussion but I don’t want people thinking they are doing anything wrong when they are just doing their own thing with the staking. Tage laughs at this as he’s commented before on the blog but I know one guy who follows all (and I mean all!) TFA bets every season. He’s not had a losing season so far, is on course for another good season and constantly tells me that everyone else is crazy for not following all my bets! If anything ever points to TFA being unique, that is probably it. :)

Right, the purpose of this post is to answer a question Matthew raised on a post a few weeks back. I said I would do it at month end but I’ve had a little time today and it’s a fairly quiet midweek with fixtures, so I’ll do the post now.

Here’s the question from Matthew again:

Hi Graeme,

Could you provide an update of the results of backing each individual selection once to 1pt for the season so far? If you could then split it into value bands as well that would be great.

Regards,

Matthew.

I’ve pulled together the analysis for the UK bets and I think it’s very interesting. I keep saying it but with the introduction of me releasing the value ratings this season with the bets, it does add a new dimension to the systems. Admittedly, I chose to ignore this dimension this season even though all the evidence pointed to possibly removing the lowest value bets from the systems historically. Having done this analysis today on this season, I suspect the evidence is even more overwhelming now but like always, I’ll reassess things at season end and give my view. I don’t fancy removing the low value bets completely as it would lead to a big reduction in bet number but if the evidence is there, the least I can do is point it out and people can make their own decisions as always.

Here’s the results this season for the 4 rating algorithms (data to today), split by value band.

This shows it was a good weekend as remarkably, all 4 algorithms have now sneaked into profit. As usual, algorithm 3 (system 31) is wiping the floor with the other 3 algorithms. I guess the surprise is that algorithm 1 is beating algorithm 2 and historically, this definitely hasn’t been the case. System 21 is a better system than system 6 IMO and the results back this up.

As you will see, the results by value band are interesting. Systems 21 and 41 show large losses for the lower value bets (<10%). System 6 shows a large loss for the lowest value bets (<5%) but a great profit for the 5%-10% range and then a large loss for 10%-15%! System 31 bucks the trend and the low value bets do really well.

Looking at the other end of the scale, the highest value bets (>30%+) are having an amazing season on every algorithm! Admittedly, there are so few bets, I won’t be retiring just yet but it at least points to the fact that if you are only wanting to lump on a few teams a season, these are the teams to do it! :)  (That’s tongue in cheek)

Being honest, as I keep saying, the only conclusion we can draw is that generally, the higher value bets do well and the very weak bets seem to be doing badly this season.

The actual question Matthew asked was around unique bets and not the algorithms, so here are the results for the unique bets at an overall level:

First comment is that it’s not exactly the best return in the world if you are following this strategy! You’d be much better just following system 31 as this return over the seasons has easily beat this strategy of backing each team that appears once.

Of course, to break the unique bets down by value bands, it’s not easy to just have one set of value bands. If we take algorithm 1, not every unique bet appears on this algorithm and therefore, we’ll have a bucket set of bets that don’t appear on the algorithm and therefore, bear this in mind! It starts to get quite complicated when you think it through as system 31 is the best system but this system seems to find bets that other systems can’t find and therefore, this should play through in the results here (and it does!).

Right, here are the results for each algorithm for the unique bets only:

I’m not about to sit and spell out hundreds of observations but I think system 31 is interesting. If you take the 212 bets that don’t appear on system 31 but appear on one of the other 3 algorithms, this accounts for a loss of 44.5pts from 212 bets. Not a huge sample but given system 31 is the best system historically, I expect that if system 31 doesn’t like your bet, not sure it’s worth having!

That’s a pretty good place to be and at least gives us some food for thought I think about the future. Likewise, if your unique bet only has a value of less than 5% and appears on system 6,21 or 41, it’s probably not worth having either!

You start to put together a couple of rules to build yourself a little unique bet system and quite quickly, you have a system that’s much better than just backing all unique bets. 

As always, I prefer to draw conclusions at season end and on much bigger sample sizes than one season, so please don’t start doing things off the back of this post. The results this season with the value bands fit in with what I thought would happen having spent some time with the data during the Summer. That's pleasing although it's one step further to act on this. 

For those reading this and thinking, ffs, he’s making it even MORE complicated, I will try to improve the service next season by having some systems that are based on certain rules regarding systems, ratings and draw systems and ultimately, these may be useful to some people. Not sure how they fit in the service and maybe they sit in another service where people are told what to back rather than told to do what they want to do! 

As always, any questions and observations welcome!  

Reply to Vidar.........

I received a comment today on the post where I replied to some of the criticisms Steve had made on a blog post. Here’s the comment in full:

I am following 21 UK-systems with a 150 point bank (should be 200, but I took a higher risk). I am staking 1 point on homes, and 0,5 point on aways and draws:

6-21, 6-22, 7-21, 7-22, 8-21, 8-22

31-41, 31-42, 32-41, 32-42, 33-41, 33-42

TOX, STOY, STOZ

D1-D6, D1-D7, D2-D6, D2-D7, D3-D6, D3-D7

I follow all the same systems as Steve do, plus 8 more. The difference in result is huge! So far my results are +10 pt. The lowest point early in the season was -100pt and the highest point was in early january with +50pt.

Have I chosen a better overall portfolio then Steve, or have I just been lucky with my choice of systems? What do you think Graeme?

Best regards,

Vidar

NB - I have amended the numbers slightly in Vidar’s comment as he originally said 19 systems and 6 more than Steve. Should have been 21 systems and 8 more than Steve based on the systems quoted and the portfolio he follows.

I’m conscious the blog and the systems have been getting a fair bit of stick from people who have made losses this season. However, as the SBC award shows, all members can’t be losing 50% of their bank like Steve this season or I suspect I’d be getting even more criticism than that coming my way already.

As many people with the service are aware, I do spend a lot of time each summer pulling together portfolio sheets which highlight historical performance and drawdowns of chosen portfolios for subscribers (based on the systems they want to follow) and therefore, I do see a lot of different ways to play the bets. I also regularly receive emails from some subscribers with updates of how their TFA portfolio is going and others show comparisons to other services they follow (doesn’t look pretty this season admittedly for TFA!) but the point is, I do have a fair idea of how many people are doing.

I don’t feel it’s right to break that trust though and I never mention on the blog or in emails to subscribers how others are doing. I try my best to not discuss how I’m doing either as not sure I have much to gain by saying whether I’m winning or losing as people expect tipsters to always win every day and if I say I’m losing, I get people saying I’m hopeless and saying I should stop and if I say I’m winning and others are losing, I get accused of rubbing it in if not every other person is winning. I learnt in the first season to keep my thoughts to myself regarding my own betting!

Anyway, the comment from Vidar is the first comment on the blog this season from someone not in a horrible situation with their P&L. Vidar makes an interesting point that I thought was worth highlighting (and no, it’s not that he is in profit!).

As Steve knows, he’s following 13 UK systems this season. Hence, Vidar only follows 8 systems more than Steve. 

As Vidar says, he’s in profit for the season and as I know, Steve’s lost over 50% of his betting bank! How has this happened?

Well, it goes back to my original post regarding Steve’s systems and he’s been very, very unlucky I think. I saw it again last night but Steve had 1 draw bet, the systems had 5 draw bets. Steve backed the only loser and made a 1pt loss last night on draws. The draw systems made a 165% ROI last night across 44 bets, Steve’s ROI was -100%. That’s a big swing!

The additional 8 systems Vidar follows have enough profits to wipe out all of the losses by Steve and get Vidar in profit. As I said in my reply to Vidar, any sort of profit is great this season and although a 10pt profit isn’t what Vidar would have been hoping for this season when he set out (6.67% ROC), given how horrible this season has been, to make any profit is good going. Basically, if you can make a profit this season when the results are terrible, I expect you can do it in any season! Break-even is great this season!

I guess the question is as Vidar asks, has he been lucky or did he have a better portfolio than Steve? 

Before I answer this, one point I want to make again is that you don’t need to follow 21, 13 or even 10 systems this season to be in profit. I think I have shown that already by the portfolios I developed for the SBC forum. 6 of the 7 portfolios with 5-7 systems are in profit and have achieved an average of 23% ROC this season. Hence, you didn’t need 13 or 21 systems to be in profit. However, what you needed was a diversified set of bets and not be too reliant on a small number of bets to do well.

By following all combined systems including the draw systems, the only bets Vidar missed out were the Euro bets. Hence, he’s picked a good sample of bets from every UK algorithm and importantly, he’s not played TFA roulette by picking which combined systems to follow. He’s taken the full belts and braces approach and followed them all! Not my idea of following TFA but then again, who am I to argue when Vidar is in profit this season following TFA and I’m not!

Hence, Vidar removed the luck aspect by following all UK combined systems. No idea how long he spends placing TFA bets (will be as long as me!) but what he has done has protected himself from a season where the returns by backing the bets that appear on the most systems have done very poorly. Imagine if the returns this season had been in line with previous seasons, he’d be raking it in whilst Steve would be clawing his way back to break-even.

Therefore, I don’t think Vidar has been any luckier than Steve this season. He’s backed the same bets exactly that Steve has backed and all he’s done is add a few more systems and boom, he’s not in the mess Steve is in.

We’ve all learnt a lot this season and I put myself into this category too (as would Steve I suspect) and as I keep saying, none of this detracts from the fact that the UK systems have been shockingly bad this season. However, losing 50%+ of a betting bank at this stage of the season is not right and therefore, it could and should have been avoided. When the systems do bad as they have done this season, you can’t expect to make a profit. I appreciate that and I’ll hold my hands up and admit the systems have been poor this season. I honestly do think 50%+ losses should not be occurring though.

The interesting thing with Vidar’s portfolio I see is the fact he stakes 0.5pts on Draws (would have been based on these being unproven this season). Hence, he’s understaked the best performing bets in his portfolio. That’s about as unlucky as anything this season and yet, he’s in profit. I keep saying it but we make our own luck at this game. It’s not lucky that Vidar is in profit and if he had more luck, he would be in more profit I suspect.

To answer the question Vidar asks, I believe he has a better portfolio overall as this season has shown and I think Steve’s been unlucky with his system selection but if you do the first thing correctly (have a good portfolio), you can remove a great deal of the luck element out of this game. I said it in my original post but Steve was lucky in the first season and unlucky this season. With the returns these systems have, not sure we want to be relying on luck each season to make a profit………….