Just a quick update to show that I’m still alive. I’m struggling for content for the blog at the moment, so instead of writing for the sake of writing, I’ll just keep quiet until I’ve got something worth reading to post.
If anyone wants me to take a look at something or has any questions about the systems, feel free to post a comment and at the very least, it will give me something to write about hopefully!
Just to show that I’m not resting on my laurels, I’m working away on my own strategy for my betting portfolio next season and I’m also working on improving the spreadsheets that I use to find the bets each time there is a set of fixtures. This sort of thing can feel like hard work at times but if I can save myself 30 mins each time I do the analysis of the fixtures, it will help me in the long-term.
I'm counting down the days to the start of the season but similar to last season, I will wait for 6 games to be played before I have any bets. I thought about reducing this to 4 games last season but my ratings actually need 6 games in order for the formulas to work properly. If I used 4 games, I'd need to use some adjustments and it's not worth the hassle I think.
In the days when I did football betting all my sheets worked using web queries to pull down info such as fixtures, stats, tables etc. Then any potential bets would highlight themselves. www.football-data.co.uk is a good place to look as they have bookies odds listed in the fixtures sheets so makes life easy and there basic stats sheets are pretty comprehensive.
ReplyDeleteGood to see you're still around Graeme, have you finsihed with the nags completely?
Hi Steve.
ReplyDeleteNice to hear from you mate. :)
I still trade the nags on Betfair like I've been doing for a while now since I had my old blog but I really struggle for time these days. Time has always been an issue for me and it isn't any better these days. I can maybe manage the odd Saturday/Sunday or weeknight to trade a little but due to the fact I can't do it consistently, I'm not really comfortable using decent stakes and I usually just take a free bet on the horse I'm trading. At my peak, I was using a pseudo account on Betfair as I was affected by the premium charge on my first account but that would be a million miles away from where I am now. My commission rate is even 5% now on my first account and it hasn't been that since about a week after I opened a Betfair account!
My time these days is spent playing with Excel and football ratings. This suits me much better as I can do it when it suits me and I have a full range of bookmaker accounts which I use for my footie betting. Keeping track of the analysis of the systems and updating the ratings takes a bit of time but it only takes a few hours to place all my bets each weekend and I can do it at night after work. Hence, it suits me from a time perspective more than anything.
I still have my old forum attached to the racing site and after I stopped the racing tips in Nov-09, I started out in Jan-10 with an idea of developing footie systems. Racing has taken a back seat since for me really.
I proofed all my system bets on the footie last season and it was a decent enough first season with an ROI of around 9%. I'm going to be having another go this season though with all these systems and I'm hopeful it may turn out better than last season.
Hope you're keeping well. Still trading the racing?
Graeme
PS. All my data comes from the site you mention. ;)
An ROI of 9% is impressive especially if it's over a large volume of bets. I need to start looking at some new avenues especially with todays new PC charges being announced.
ReplyDeleteProbably won't affect me as much as some as I've always had PC avoidance/comm generating measures in place. If I'd known new charges were due I'd have been a lot more active though as it's hard enough to generate 20% charges let alone 40% :(
Yeah, I wasn't too surprised to read about the changes to the PC at Betfair Steve. I'm sure that over time, the top limit will be reduced and more and more people will be caught in the net.
ReplyDeleteThe Betfair PC was one reason why I drifted away from Betfair and from taking it too seriously. I wasn't one of the successful traders they make you believe only the PC affects but through my methods on Betfair and my somewhat limited success, it still managed to catch up with me. I opened an account with Betdaq but given I like to lay IR, it was pretty much useless.
I've gone from the jokers at Betfair to the bookmakers now and it's just as bad, if not worse. Had limited success last season at various points in time and I was already getting bet restrictions. I've not used any of my accounts since I stopped betting on the footie last season, so I'm hoping it will be easier again when the season starts. Not sure it will last though!
Yeah, 9% last season wasn't bad but at one point, I thought I was on for about 20%, so the 9% didn't feel like 9%. Felt much worse!
Looking forward to next season though. It seems like a long summer.....
Graeme