Sunday, 9 October 2011

Frustration Continues.......

I think the title of this post just sums things up at the moment. I can’t seem to buy a lucky break (I know I’m not the only one!) but Saturday just seemed to be another ‘one of them days’ this season. Unfortunately, they keep happening and the only thing I can take from this weekend is the fact that things didn’t go backwards, unlike some other weekends this season.

My systems very rarely throw up a big priced team as often as Tranmere and they appeared on 11 systems this weekend. At 5/1 to win, you can see how big a result it would have been for them to win. I was watching Soccer Saturday and this was one of the games covered in the studio. From the reports, they pretty much dominated Charlton the whole game and looked the most likely to score but unfortunately for me and everyone following the systems, they couldn’t find the second goal to go 2-0 up. As always happens when you’re on a 5/1 chance, they let in an equaliser late on from a dodgy pen. I’ve seen the penalty today and it wasn’t clear cut. :(

Looking at the shots on goal ratios from the game (from BBC admittedly which I don’t place too much faith in!), Tranmere had 8 shots on target to Charlton’s 2 and they had 10 attempts off target to Charlton’s 4. When you consider Tranmere scored first and would have soaked up pressure from the home side, the stats favour Tranmere enormously. Very frustrating and a swing of 66pts on that game which would have been my best weekend this season by far if Tranmere had won.

The other game that had a big priced team was Stevenage and although Huddersfield did dominate this, Stevenage missed a last minute penalty which would have saved a draw and returned the DNB stake I had on them.

Lastly, I had Forest Green (11/2) away to Fleetwood on one of the systems and they managed to draw 0-0 and reading the report, they had a goal disallowed that could easily have stood and they held their own too in that game.

Overall, 3 big priced teams who on another day, could have sneaked a win for the systems and give the P&l a massive boost but unfortunately for me, it didn’t happen.

Anyway, enough moaning from me.

Algorithm one had 9 bets this weekend and resulted in 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses. A loss of 1.97pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.06pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 8 bets this weekend, 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. A loss of 2.8pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.28pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 12 bets, 3 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses. A loss of 2.8pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.62pts for DNB betting.

As you can see above, a lot of draws in there with 29 bets producing 13 draws, so DNB betting will have done better this weekend than H/A betting.

The established systems from last season had 35 bets and only lost 0.77pts in total. DNB betting made a profit of 0.62pts.

The new systems from this season had 47 bets and lost 11.2pts for H/A betting. DNB did much better though and made a profit of 4.8pts.

In total, from 82 bets this weekend on all systems, the systems hit 37 draws. A 45% strike rate on draws is a killer and ultimately, that’s why the systems haven’t made a really good profit this weekend. If a couple of these draws had been wins, then it would have been a good weekend and if Tranmere had won, it would have been a great weekend.

The other point to make about this weekend was the fact the more selective combined systems had a better weekend. It may have only been one bet and one winner on systems 7-22 and 8-22 but these are my two best systems from last season and after a treacherous start this season, these systems have managed to pull back most of the losses and after this weekend, amazingly, these are 2 of the best 3 systems this season.

Everyone who’s following my systems this season will have one or both of these systems in their portfolio (or at least, they should have if they listened to me!) and therefore, although it has been a disaster this season so far, these systems have done remarkably well to be in the position they are now. I wish 15 or so of my other systems were in the same position as these two systems but there is plenty of time left this season for these other systems to catch up.

Anyway, we roll on to the midweek and I’ll paste up any bets for the Bsq Prem card on Tuesday if there are any bets.

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