Monday, 24 October 2011

Another setback.....but not a disaster!

Firstly, apologies to the anonymous poster who's waiting on a summary of the systems. Didn't get near my laptop all weekend once my bets were placed on Friday night and I only updated my results this morning. I'll try to get this post done during the week at some point hopefully.

A pretty tricky weekend for my ratings with a fairly low strike rate overall leading to a fairly large loss. There were some great winners in amongst the systems this weekend and for that reason, I have to say I'm very disappointed with how it turned out.

I don't often quote these stats (no need really as it doesn't matter) but this weekend, there were bets thrown up in 33 games. There was a profit of 11.5pts for H/A betting and a profit of 9.1pts for DNB betting. When you consider the losses I'm about to show below, it does make me cringe! Even if I ignore the fact that QPR is one of the games, then my ratings still made a profit this weekend from the 32 games remaining. Disappointing it turned into such a large loss this weekend on some systems.

Algorithm one had 25 bets but only found 6 winners. There were 8 draws in there but a massive 11 losers. A loss of 6.82pts for H/A betting and a loss of 3.86pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 19 bets but again, only found 5 winners which is poor. There were 6 draws but 8 losers. A loss of 3.34pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.68pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three was the star of the show this weekend although I cringe looking at the results. 22 bets but only 6 winners. However, the winners were 3.68, 4.08, 5.41, 3.2, 10.18 and 3.64. The system went 0 from 6 at bets less than 2/1 which is shameful! It also found 6 draws but an enormous 10 losers.

Overall, a profit of 8.19pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.75pts for DNB betting on algorithm three.

All in all, a poor weekend with a very low strike rate of winners. The 175 games yielded only 37 winners (21%) but a substantial 59 (34%) draws. There were then 79 losses (45%).

I could point to the high draw % as an issue this weekend but being honest, that's papering over the cracks a little. It wasn't the high priced away teams drawing in the main, it was the short priced home teams who should be winning that were drawing!

I could look at Inverness who were 1-0 up and let in an 86th min equaliser. If they had held on, it would have been close to a break-even weekend overall which would have been a good result considering the low strike rate but it wasn't to be.

This weekend was a setback but it wasn't a disaster. The established systems are sitting with a 10% ROI for this month (not ignoring that they lost 31% last month!) and the new systems are sitting with an ROI of 17% this month (not ignoring they lost 27% last month!). Hence, a setback but not a disaster.

There are a good few bets for tomorrow night from League One and League Two and then we'll have a big weekend card (no BSq Prem games) to get our teeth into before the month ends. Hence, whether this month ends up being profitable or not will depend on how the next week goes. Hopefully the systems have a good midweek followed by a good weekend but as always, whatever will be, will be!

I'll post up the midweek bets tomorrow morning.

No comments:

Post a Comment