Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Midweek Results

A winning midweek due to Grimsby winning but another couple of big priced teams drawing. The systems continue to take on odds on teams who are underpriced (according to my ratings) and at the moment, the favourites aren't winning but unfortunately for me, they aren't losing either! Slightly frustrating as it continues to pull down the overall performance of the systems but hopefully a correction is due soon.

I haven't really looked in depth but I'd be willing to bet that the big priced away teams are showing a massive loss this season so far. Ultimately, it's these teams though that turn good weekends into great weekends and average weekends into good weekends but unfortunately, due to the higher odds, there is a much higher variance in the short-term returns. Looking at the results though, I still believe that the systems are picking the correct teams to back and therefore, things should hopefully improve as the season goes on. It doesn't take too many of these teams to win to turn around the performance of the systems.

After last night, even though it has been a near impossible start this season for many rating systems following the football, System 7-22 is sitting with a 10% ROI and system 8-22 is sitting with an ROI of 7%. Admittedly, picking out two systems when I've got 20 on the go isn't a fair indication of the season's performance but last season, these two systems had the best ROI's by a long way from my proofed systems. Hence, it's encouraging that even though most of the other systems have struggled badly so far this season, these systems are doing OK. This season isn't as much of a lost cause as it once appeared I think!

Last night then, algorithm one had two bets. One winner and one loser for a small loss of 0.17pts. DNB lost 0.63pts.

Algorithm two had one bet, one winner. A profit of 0.83pts for H/A and 0.37pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 4 bets. One winner, 2 draws and a loser, so not the best night although the two draws were both big priced teams. A loss of 2.17pts for H/A and a loss of 0.63pts for DNB.

The established systems made a profit of 8.13pts for H/A and a profit of 2.29pts for DNB.

The new systems made a profit of 3.47pts for H/A and a profit of 2.29pts for DNB.

Overall, a decent night and another step in the right direction. A helluva long way to go to undo the nightmare that was September on most of the systems but I'm starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the ratings settling down and managing to pinpoint some good value bets. Although they may not all be winning (far from it!), the strike rate is creeping up and hopefully things continue this weekend.

I'll be back on Friday with the weekend bets.

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