Wednesday, 5 October 2011

What if I had staked.....

1pt on every value bet so far this season?

There was an interesting question from Alan on my last post. I could have answered quickly in the comments section but the results are a little surprising (even for me and I’m running this show!), so I thought it was worth showing them in a post.

Alan’s question was “How much would I have lost from staking 1pt on all your bets this season?”

I joked in my reply that it wasn’t necessarily the case that this method would be losing this season as I knew from last season that there isn’t a strong correlation between this method of betting and the results from the systems.

Simply, staking 1pt on every team that appears is the opposite of what I’m trying do by placing more on teams which are higher value bets. Clearly, if you just place 1pt on every team that appears, you are disregarding a lot of what my ratings do by trying to find the highest value bets.

I know last season that placing 1pt on every team that appeared generated a return of around 1% whereas the ROI for my systems was around 9%. Hence, I can’t believe that this method is a more profitable method long-term.

Anyway, what does it look like this season?

Well, I’m amazed.

As of today, there have been 141 bets unique bets thrown up so far this season. By simply placing 1pt on these, your profit will have been 2.39pts for H/A betting. Things are slightly worse for DNB betting with a loss of 5.9pts.

If we look only at the established systems from last season (algorithms one and two), then there has been 116 unique bets thrown up. A profit of 4.34pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.1pts for DNB.

If we look at the new systems from this season (algorithm three), there have been 99 bets thrown up. This has resulted in a loss of 4.73pts for H/A betting and a loss of 9.3pts for DNB betting.

Overall, the results are somewhat surprising although when I look at the monthly results post, it maybe isn’t too surprising. The systems that are doing best are the ones which have the most bets on them and therefore, this method of putting 1pt on every value bet is just one step beyond system 6 or system 21 or system 31.

Anyway, I’m not sure what to make of this. All the work I’ve done has shown that this isn’t a way to maximise profits long-term or even medium-term if I’m honest but in the short-term, it’s another example that anything can happen.

I’ll be back on Friday with the bets for this weekend. We have a reduced fixture card due to internationals.

No comments:

Post a Comment