If there is one thing I’ve learnt over the past 22 months since I started out on this venture, it’s that day’s like yesterday don’t come along too often! Obviously, they are great when they do happen but so much of this game is about trying to keep the P&L in a decent state so that when the great day does come along, you aren’t just recovering losses. It has been very tough this season so far as I’ve said a few times on the blog but this month has turned out to be one of the best months in a while.
I’ll do a monthly post later (probably tomorrow) which will make interesting reading but here is a run-down of yesterday’s results.
Algorithm one had 16 bets, 6 winners, 2 draws and 8 losers. Doesn’t look great based on the strike rate but a profit of 4.50pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.92pts for DNB betting.
Algorithm two had 15 bets, 6 winners, 2 draws and 7 losers. Again, may not look great based on the strike rate but a profit of 7.58pts for H/A betting and a profit of 3.5pts for DNB betting.
Thankfully, the systems narrowed these bets down very well and the results were exceptional on the established systems from last season. A profit of 62.23 pts for H/A betting and a profit of 34.99pts for DNB betting. There were 73 bets, 37 winners, 9 draws and 28 losers.
Algorithm three had 17 bets, 5 winners, 5 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.63pts for DNB betting.
This doesn’t tell half of the story on the 3rd algorithm though. Accrington were 1-0 up at Crawley until late on and at odds of 9.50, it would have been a great winner to follow up QPR last week on this algorithm. In addition, Oldham managed to lose a 3-0 lead and only lost the 3rd goal in injury time. Lastly, Exeter at odds of 6.59 drew 4-4 with Sheff Utd after being 2-0 up early on. On any other day, it would have been a great day for the 3rd algorithm I suspect.
Overall, the new systems had 69 bets, 26 winners, 15 draws and 28 losers. A profit of 5.85pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.22pts for DNB betting.
I’m quite grateful to see the balance of profitability shift from the new systems this season towards the established systems from last season. Most people I know who are following the systems this season are following the systems with proofed results behind them rather than unproven systems and until this weekend, the new systems had outperformed the systems from last season. The balance shifted this weekend though and hopefully this is the start of a good run for the established systems.
The next post should be for the midweek games. There is a full Championship card and one game in league two.
In the meantime, I’ll start work on the October monthly review. It should be an interesting read. :)