Wednesday, 9 November 2011

FA Cup 'Fun Bets'

When I thought it would be a good idea to use my ratings for this weekend, I hadn’t factored in that all my spreadsheets don’t cope well with teams playing against others from other leagues. When I was building the process 15-18 months ago, I didn’t ever think I’d be interested in looking at games involving teams from different leagues. I hadn’t actually looked at doing the preparation until last night but it didn’t look too difficult. 6 hours of work later……..

Anyway, onto the more interesting stuff.

Below are the value bets for this weekend. There are 16 value bets from the 25 matches (in line with a typical weekend) and there are 11 value bets for the under/over 2.5 goals market. As I said earlier today, these under/over bets are simply a bi-product of the work I do to come up with the selections. I’ve never placed an over/under bet in my life and for all I know, my ratings could be much better at finding value bets in this market than anything on the planet. I doubt it though!

I’m not sure I can place too much emphasis on the value % this weekend. I had guessed this would happen but the 3 highest value bets are priced 7.30, 7.09 and 7.00! I’m not going to worry about trying to put the bets onto the systems etc. as it’s an additional layer of work and at the end of the day, similar to the trial earlier this season, I’m not overly concerned about what the system results would be.

In terms of the under/over value bets, there are 9 under bets and 2 over bets. I suspect that my ratings may have these games closer than the bookies which indicates I expect a lower number of goals than them in many games. It’s all correlated!

Lastly, I’m always very wary of sharing too much of my workings on here or anywhere if I’m honest. However, for a one-off, I’ve pasted the summary sheet that is produced for each of the league games every weekend. I’m sure this might interest a few of you who are into this sort of thing. For others, it gives an indication of the output that I get from doing the work I do on a bi-weekly basis.

Good luck for this weekend.


  1. In the spirit of "fun" thought I'd send you mine for this weekend

    Home wins

    AFC Wimbledon

    Away wins


    Draw No Bet


    Under 2.5

    Bradford C
    Newport Co
    Port Vale

    Over 2.5

    Port Vale

  2. Thanks for the selections anonymous.

    I haven’t studied the selections that have been thrown up by my ratings too much.

    You can be my Joe Punter this weekend. We’ll see how my ratings do against your selections. :)

    Good luck.


  3. Graeme, not hedging my bets but I've typed Port Vale on unders and overs lol

    Should be unders !!

  4. lol

    By having them on both, it at least ensured you couldn’t lose too much! If you’d quoted odds and found a game with an overround of below 100%, you could have had a headstart this weekend mate!

    We’ll count them as an Under then. :)