Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Lambs to the slaughter..........

Well, I never know where to start after really poor weekends as whatever way I look at the weekend, it is poor. I looked at odds portal on Sunday evening and I think that there were only 5 away wins at 2/1+ from all the games played and with Huddersfield losing last night, that means 5 wins from 64 games. Considering my ratings specialise in aways priced 2/1+, you can see how difficult the weekend was for my systems! Looking back now, I actually think they did well to lose as little as they did as it could have been absolute carnage this weekend for anyone backing the sort of teams I back, week in, week out.

Algorithm one had 15 bets and only found 2 winners. There were only 5 draws in here too, so a massive 8 losers. A loss of 7.10pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.19pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two also had 15 bets and only managed to find 2 winners too. There were 5 draws in there too, along with 8 losers. A loss of 7.25pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.29pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three also had 15 bets and again, only managed to find 2 winners! Can’t recall that happening before where all 3 algorithms had the same number of picks in the same weekend. A loss of 10.65pts for H/A betting and a loss of 6.85pts for DNB betting.

Clearly, the systems didn’t have a lot to work with this weekend, so it was lambs to the slaughter.

The established systems lost a total of 28.40pts from 61 games. DNB betting fared a bit better with a loss of 15.94pts.

The new systems had a nightmare weekend. A loss of 46.30pts from 55 games for H/A betting but interestingly, DNB did much better. DNB betting only suffered a loss of 20.7pts.

H/A betting has easily outpointed DNB betting over the past 7 weeks, so it’s no surprise to see DNB betting make some ground over the weekend. As always happens though, DNB betting only works during really bad weekends when you hit more draws than you want to!

I think it’s important that I don’t get too downhearted about the weekend’s losses. It’s never nice to lose money at this game but when I look at this month in total, there is a lot to be pleased about so far.

Interestingly, if Newport win tonight, this month will go down as the most successful month for my established systems for 3 seasons! Of course, it’s more likely they don’t win tonight which means this month is only the 4th best month since my systems went live. I say only the 4th best month but if someone had offered me that at the start of the month, I’d have bitten their hand off!

I’ll update the results from tonight tomorrow and I’ll also write a monthly review before the weekend.


  1. Hi Graaeme. Well the Newport result went very decisively in your favour so congratulations on your best month in three years. I enjoy this blog immensely - a lot of hard work has obviously gone in to these systems and I wish you all the best, especially so as I back some of them! Well done.

  2. Hi Laidback.

    Thanks for your post. Great to see you enjoy the blog. I struggle at times to keep the blog interesting as there is so much work involved in maintaining the ratings, updating the bets and tracking the results, I do struggle when there are weekend/midweek games on the go to write anything on here, other than post the bets and results!

    It was great to see Newport win last night and even before the game, I loved the fact they were 11/10 in places to win that game. They were my 3rd highest value bet this season if the truth be told and I backed them at 7/4 myself with a very decent stake as soon as my ratings were updated, so you get a great feeling of self-satisfaction seeing them start at 11/10 in places before a ball is kicked. Then again, there was a lot of satisfaction seeing they were 3-0 up at half time too! :)

    November was a great month and I’ll bask in the glory of this month for today only and then the hard work all starts again tonight with the bets for this weekend! I’ve not updated my results from last night yet but the 11 established systems from last season made over 100pts between them I think, so based purely on that, it is the best month since 2008 for these systems in total.

    I’ll be doing the monthly review later today too, so it should be interesting to see the ROI in November!

    Thanks for reading.


  3. Hi there.

    Been reading your Blog for a while now and I am busy reading all your old posts to catch up.

    I'm doing my own blog now starting from the beginning, I would greatly appreciate if you have the time of course to pop over and have a read and maybe comment.


  4. Hi Brian.

    Thanks for your post. Had a quick read of your first two posts and it looks like it could be an interesting blog. I’ll add a link too.