Wednesday, 30 November 2011

One of the best things about following systems and having no human intervention is that there are no mind games involved when it comes to the betting side of things. After Saturday’s loss, I would have happily settled for seeing no bets this midweek on the systems if I’m being perfectly honest. Therefore, when I was doing the work to pull out the bets, I cringed a little when I saw Newport as a bet.

Not only did they appear on every established system and the 3 similar game models (ignore the fact the DNB systems didn’t appreciate how strong a bet they were!), but they were also one of the highest rated bets I’ve had all season. Simply, according to my ratings, Hayes were playing like a team that should be bottom of the league and although Newport were very inconsistent, they were playing so much better than their league position suggested, it was impossible to believe that they were 7/4 to win this game (or 2.62 when I gave the bet out).

They’d beaten Fleetwood (top 3 team) 4-1 away from home and played them off the park, lost narrowly to Tamworth (top half side), beat Kettering easily 3-1 (worst team in the league aside from Hayes on my ratings at the moment), drew 0-0 away at Wrexham (top 3 team), lost narrowly at home to Ebbsfleet, drew 2-2 with Grimsby (top half side) and lost narrowly to Luton (top 3 side) 1-0 on Saturday by conceding a last minute goal.

Based solely on the last 7 games, Newport are a top half side and considering they’d played the top 3 sides in the league and competed very well, then they should have made mincemeat of a team like Hayes who had lost 5 of their last 6 games!

It’s not often ratings work out as well as they did in that game last night but Newport should win that game roughly 50% of the time according to my ratings. I therefore smiled when they started at 11/10 in places at kick-off after steaming in from an opening show of 7/4 and the fact they were 3-0 up at half time was very sweet.

I’m sure everyone in the market who uses football ratings in this league had this one down as a value away win but again, the systems were able to spot how good a bet this actually was and I therefore staked it accordingly, along with others who follow the systems I suspect.

Anyway, it’s only one game but it felt great to bounce back after Saturday with such a strong bet that won so easily.

Algorithm one had 2 bets and 2 winners. A profit of 2.45pts and 1.25pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had the same 2 bets and 2 winners. A profit of 2.45pts for H/A betting and 1.25pts DNB.

Algorithm three didn’t have such a great night. 4 bets and only one winner. A loss of 1.35pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.10pts for DNB betting.

With the 100% record on the first two algorithms, the established systems had to have a good night. A profit of 22.15pts for H/A betting and a profit of 11.60pts. There were 16 bets.

The new systems didn’t have such a good night but it wasn’t too bad. A profit of 4.90pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.37pts for DNB betting. There were 11 bets.

Overall then, a really good night for the established systems. When you consider they lost 28pts on Saturday for H/A and 16pts for DNB, to win 22pts and 11.60pts back so quickly is a great end to the month. For those following the combined systems 6-21 thru to 8-22, all of the losses were recouped from the weekend, so we can start next month from a decent closing position this month.

I’ll get on with the monthly review and update on here when it’s done.


  1. Hi Graeme,

    I'm only a recent follower of your blog but keep track of it every day now. Gotta say the Newport result was a corker, well done.

    Keep it up.

  2. Thanks Dartguru.

    Nice when they sort of bets win but it’s a long-term game. Even if they had got gubbed last night, I know they were still a value bet!

    Nice to have a new blog reader. I’ve got about 200+ readers I suspect but you’d never know by the lack of comments. ;)



  3. I follow you through Google Reader, so I don't know if it gets counted or not.

    My primary interest is in horses but I still do a weekly football bet where is simply to do a treble on the three same Prem teams each week: to win when at home or not lose when away. I repeat this for the other three divisions and only omit the bet when teams play each other.

    I review the three teams every month or so, and its been quite lucrative so far this season, VERY actually. I've got from a starting point of 100pts to about 210pts so far.