Here's the remaining system bets.
System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
05/11/2011 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Barrow Lincoln 2.63 1.89
05/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Preston Preston 5.50 4.21
05/11/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.57
05/11/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Barnet Barnet 4.50 3.35
05/11/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.87
System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
05/11/2011 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Barrow Lincoln 2.63 1.89
05/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Preston Preston 5.50 4.21
05/11/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.57
05/11/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.87
System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
05/11/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.87
05/11/2011 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Barrow Lincoln 2.63 1.89
05/11/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Cambridge Mansfield 2.25 1.62
05/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Preston Preston 5.50 4.21
05/11/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.57
05/11/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Colchester Tranmere 2.20 1.59
05/11/2011 Bsq Prem York v Wrexham York 2.10 1.50
System 8 always has less bets than system 7 which in turn has less bets than system 6 and I understand exactly why, ie system 6 has all the value selections for that method, 7 has just the higher value ones and 8 always has the highest value ones only, likewise the same applies to system 22 over 21 and also 33 over 32 and in turn over 31. I,ve read your explanations and I clearly get that. Can you just explain the three at the bottom as it doesn't seem to apply to them, eg STOZ has selections that don't appear in TOX. It's just that I was devising which bets to follow based on the above but the last 3 systems don't seem to comply and it's thrown me. If you can direct me to a link or something, I'll work it out for myself. Fascinatiing blog this by the way. I love systems and figures and this is right up my street.
ReplyDeleteHi Laidback.
ReplyDeleteShort of time today but these two posts below are what you are looking for mate.
Be careful following these systems via the blog. The odds have crashed on a lot of these I've noticed.
Graeme
http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2011/06/similar-games-model.html
http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2011/07/tox-stoy-and-stoz.html
Thanks Graeme, that's clearer now. As regards the odds crashing, yes I've noticed it in a few but I always decide the minimum odds at which I'll back before I actually check the current odds, so if they've fallen too far I skip the bet as obviously the perceived value's gone.Not been a big problem though and if you check the odds nearer kick of some of them have actually drifted the other way, especially on Betfair.
ReplyDeleteHello,
ReplyDeletethanks for all the good information's....
Hi Laidback.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I am aware of some of the teams bouncing back and ending up drifting to something higher than I backed at. I guess if I knew which teams would drift, I’d never need to worry about backing them as I’d just trade the games but it is a bit random at times.
I had a feeling Leeds would drift yesterday after their midweek loss and I had them as a value bet at 4.06. If they were 4.5+ on Wednesday night when I captured the odds (they started at about 4.70 I think), they’d have appeared on a few more systems this weekend and it would have been an even better weekend! The same comment applies to Inverness tbh as they were 4.5 at kick-off instead of the 4 I gave them out at.
My ratings are slaves to the odds at a particular time though. Other teams wouldn’t have been a bet on so many systems at shorter odds than I gave them out at.
I’m happy to be judged on the selections at the odds I proof at which are fairly general odds at the time of releasing the bets on Thursday and Monday nights. Admittedly, by the time the bets appear on here, the odds sometimes don’t quite look the same but they drift as much as they shorten in many cases, so it’s swings and roundabouts. Due to the fact I play on higher odds teams, I’d be willing to bet that the average odds at kick-off are very often a good bit higher than I took in many games as punters tend to ignore these value bets at nice odds and play on short priced teams. I’m backing fairly unfashionable teams away from home against teams who are generally perceived to be in much better form. That’s my edge I guess. :)
Cheers for reading.
Graeme
Hi,
ReplyDeleteReally liked your website really got your point acrosss. Found it while going through google so wanted to tell you good job and you have a bookmark from me.