Tuesday, 20 December 2011

The Great Escape

Sometimes when I’m watching the games unfold on a Saturday, I get a feeling very early on it’s going to be a good day or a bad day. I’m not always right and with so many late goals causing massive swings for or against you, it’s always difficult to know for sure whether you are going to make a profit or not.

As Saturday unfolded, the only thing I could be sure about was that I was facing a substantial loss! Not only that, I was maybe also witnessing the biggest let down I’ve ever had on a football bet and if that had happened, I’d have been really sick!

Things started so well. If you read my post last week about the number of times teams appear on my systems, you will have picked up the fact that in 5 and a bit seasons, there had been 68 bets where teams had appeared on all 20 systems. On Saturday, Burnley were the 69th bet where this had occurred.

The ROI on these bets was 49.1% and therefore, I felt like there was suddenly huge pressure on this game. Strange really as if I had never looked at the stats on this, I’d have never worried about it so much as it has happened a few times already this season. There were 9 previous times this season that teams had met this criteria. 9 bets, 5 wins and 4 losses. A profit of 2.13pts and an ROI of 23.67%.

Not sure why but for these previous 9 times, I didn’t feel as much pressure was on the game as was on Burnley on Saturday. Maybe it was because I’d thrown an extra £10 on Burnley which made them my biggest bet of the season but then again, doesn’t quite make sense when I had more than £10 on many other teams!

Anyway, I felt a lot of pressure with that game for some reason. Brighton had a man sent off in 6th and 12th minutes off the game. Not sure how often teams lose 2 players in 12 minutes at the start of a game but Burnley were now playing against 9 men for 78 minutes of the game. Surely it was a matter of how many goals they would score?

Well…no. They did score in the 32nd minute but that was it. Every time they went across to the game on Soccer Saturday, it was about Burnley dominating possession and Brighton playing on the counter attack. Late on, they went across and Brighton had gone close to equalising.

Honestly, I don’t think I’ve sweated so much on a game in my life. Given how other events were unfolding (I didn’t have a winning team on all the other games on system 6-21 which meant a potential disaster!), I knew I needed them to hold on.

As it turned out, Burnley held on against the 9 men, Middlesboro came from 2-1 behind to beat Cardiff and West Brom scored in the 89th minute to beat Blackburn. My only other winner was Lincoln to win in the conference.

17 bets this weekend, 4 winners. Absolute rubbish……Or is it?

As the title suggests, it was The Great Escape this weekend as my systems came to the rescue.

Algorithm one had 14 bets, 3 winners, 6 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 3.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.71pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 13 bets, 3 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 2.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.71pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 11 bets, 3 winners, 4 draws and 4 losers. A profit of 0.38pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.19pts for DNB betting.

Looking at these core results, you can see how much of a disaster it would have been if West Brom, Middlesboro and Burnley hadn’t all won!

Anyway, as usually happens on days like this, the combined systems limited the damage. However, this weekend, they not only limited the damage, they somehow managed to make a profit!

As the combined systems filtered the bets, the bets got stronger and stronger.

System 7-22 (is there a better football system on the planet over the last season and a bit?) somehow managed to find 4 bets at the weekend and find 2 winners for a profit of 2.5pts! Amazing when I think that I only hit 4 winners in 17 games but then again, amazing is what this system does week in, week out.

Overall, the established systems made a profit of 3.15pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.17pts for DNB betting. The new systems made a loss of 8.22pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.72pts for DNB.

I think that going forward, it’s important to realise that there are now 5 ‘sets’ of systems on the go. I tend to think about established v old but in reality, within the established systems, I have the 5 single systems and the 6 combined systems. Performance looks nothing like the same for both portfolios, so it’s important to recognise the sets of systems for what they are.

Likewise, within the new portfolio, I have 3 sets of systems. I have systems 31, 32 and 33 which are based on DNB ratings and are fairly unique. I then cross refer these systems with the systems from my first two sets of ratings and that creates the new combined systems 6-32, 21-31, 6-21-31. Lastly, I have the 3 systems which aren’t based on my ratings but are based on some crazy Similar Game Model methodology which appears to be useless this season. This is systems TOX, STOY and STOZ.

I always steer people towards the established systems and in particular the combined systems and this was also the thoughts of the Secret Betting Club when they looked at my systems last season. Hence, these systems are the most important to me for obvious reasons. Most people follow these, I follow these and I always tell others to follow these.

After that, systems 6,7,8,21 and 22 are the next important systems since these are used by the combined systems. In addition, I know some people use these core systems to create other systems to use.

After that, the most important are obviously 31,32 and 33 as these are ultimately new systems which are then going to be combined with my first two sets of systems to create more systems.

We then have the combined systems involving 31-33 and any other systems.

Lastly, and in a sense, the least important, would be the SGM systems since they are a bit off the wall and totally unproven in the sense I don’t even know if the methodology works, never mind the systems!

I'm forever being asked which systems to follow........

No comments:

Post a Comment