Tuesday, 6 December 2011

Have I found an edge?

I promised I’d post this last week but I forgot all about it if I’m honest. This only includes results up to the end of last month.

I showed a similar table last month but with 40 systems on the go (20 H/A and 20 DNB), it is difficult to look at it on one page.

This month, I’ve just shown the systems which have an ROI of 10%+ for their proofed results. In total, there are actually 18 systems from the 40 possible systems which have an ROI in excess of 10%. 6 systems are from this season (they’ll have fewer bets) but 12 systems are from last season.

So, I now manage 12 systems which have an ROI of 10%+ over a season and a bit.

Of course, this is slightly misleading as if a system like 7-22 DNB has an ROI of 10%+, it is odds on that system 7-22 H/A probably has a higher return.

Breaking it down then, the following systems have an ROI of 10%+. System 22 (H/A & DNB), System 6-22 (H/A & DNB), System 7-21 (H/A & DNB), System 7-22 (H/A & DNB), System 8-22 (H/A & DNB), System 6-21 (H/A), System 8-21 (H/A).

Hence, one could argue that I only really have 7 systems with a season and a bit results with an ROI above 10%. However, I only have 11 of these systems, so therefore, 7 of the 11 systems from last season have an ROI of 10%+.

Apologies if I’m boring anyone slightly but I know it is sometimes difficult to judge whether a set of football ratings have an edge or not. I know it more than anyone as over the past 2 years, I’ve often wondered whether I’d created an edge or not. It’s always difficult to know how many live results you need to see before you believe you have an edge. 100, 200, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000……

After last weekend, I now have 4,771 proofed bets from the 20 systems. If you treat H/A and DNB as separate systems as I tend to do, then that doubles the number of proofed bets to 9,542 bets.

Do I believe I have an edge using my football ratings? Well, at the end of this month, this will be exactly two years since I started out on this journey to find an edge on football. I think for the first time in all this time, I actually believe deep down that I have created an edge for myself (and those others following) in this market. I will have proofed 5,000 bets (10,000 if we include DNB) and I think that sample is enough evidence in my eyes to show that an edge exists.

Obviously, it is one thing to find an edge in a market but it is even more difficult to maintain the edge. As well as keeping ahead of bookmakers, I also know that my ratings are similar in some aspects to many others who sell football tips for example. I didn’t come up with the idea of shot supremacy ratings (I wish I had as I’d get better odds on many of my bets!) and therefore, at some point, someone smarter than me will come along and create a set of ratings that are better than mines. After all, I’ve done the same to others over the past season and a bit.

In the meantime, we should all enjoy this while it lasts.


  1. Hi Graeme,

    I am interested in exchanging links on my new trainer website directory. It is a great resource for all readers. Take a look and see what you think: http://thehorsetrainerwebsitedirectory.blogspot.com/

    If it is satisfactory, please use the name ''Trainer Websites''.

    Kind regards,
    Jason (HCE)

  2. Hi Jason.

    Added a link mate. Looks like a one-stop shop for everything related to trainers. A very useful resource I suspect.