This post will bring the results up to date on the blog as of today. The last results post was exactly one week ago on 22nd December, so this post will cover all games from the 24th December to 28th December.
There has been a lot of games played in this time but ultimately, in terms of P&L, not a lot has changed if I’m honest. Any gains have been given back and things have remained remarkably stable over the last week. As always, there is the usual hard luck story of a late goal going against the systems and a really sore one at that if I’m honest but I’ll touch on it below.
I’ll deal with the established systems first. You can see the breakdown by day and system if you click on the picture but I don’t want to discuss the results in too much detail as the monthly results will deal with how each system has performed and I’m writing that next week, so I’ll stick with the overall results in this post although I’ll no doubt touch on some systems!
Across the period I’m reviewing, a profit has been made of 4.70pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.96pts for DNB betting for the established systems. When you consider that this covers 80 bets, it’s pretty unusual for my systems to achieve anything like a break-even result over such a large sample of bets. It’s usually always a large profit or a large loss!
Looking at the combined systems only, then a profit of 1.9pts for H/A betting (0.44pts for DNB) was achieved across 33 bets. Again, a very similar result to the overall sample.
Overall, I can’t be too concerned and although this month has proven much more difficult than the preceding two months, I only need to look at some other services/blogs to see how difficult it has been in December to make a profit. With a full set of fixtures to come on Saturday, the month remains in the balance for the established systems as they seek to achieve a profit for the 10th month out of 13.
The same can’t be said for the new systems.
Across the period, a loss of 3.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 9.90pts for DNB betting. This is from a sample of 64 games, so it is disappointing. As I touched on previously, there is now a clear divergence between the established systems and the new systems with the consensus being that the new systems aren’t as good as the established systems. That’s not to say that they aren’t profitable or won’t be profitable in the future but why would I (or anyone?) want to follow these new systems when they aren’t as good as my other systems. They may be better than most other football systems on the market but they are now starting to look exposed compared to my other systems which have a longer proofing period too.
I should probably split the new systems down into the 3rd algorithm (systems involving 31-33) and the SGM systems. As you will know, the SGM systems have really struggled this season (never been in profit!). The SGM systems made a profit of 4.35pts from 15 bets whereas the other systems made a loss of 7.4pts from 49 games.
As discussed previously, the only shining light on the SGM systems have been the Home bets. This trend is getting even stronger now if I’m honest. The SGM Homes have an ROI of 31% on Homes this season across 70 bets (small sample admittedly). The aways have an ROI of -30% across 120 bets!
When I look at all my systems and the performance of Homes this season, nothing can match the SGM Home bets. Hence, these systems are able to filter out the very best Home bets that all my systems have. Hence, although it may seem like I am wasting my time with these SGM systems this season, there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel concerning the Home bets. May help us next season.
Overall, it has been a disappointing month for the new system bets and they do face a losing month. That will be their 2nd losing month in 4 months this season and when you consider that the established systems have only had 3 losing months in 12 months, you can see that the new systems don’t appear to be as strong as the other systems. Of course, Saturday could change that and the New systems may well turn the month around but as of this moment, I think the new systems are under pressure to start improving or they won’t be added to my established systems portfolio next season.
I can’t go without mentioning how different the results above would have been if Carlisle had held on against Preston. Carlisle appeared on 17 systems at odds of 3.2, so if they had won, it was a swing of 54.4pts. They were 3-2 up and conceded a goal in the 92nd minute of the game to draw the game 3-3. Change this result and I expect this post would have read a lot differently but as always, that’s what happens and it is out with my control. Thankfully, things like don’t annoy the systems as much as it annoys me!
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a post for the weekend bets. I’ll also need a post first thing on Monday morning for the bets on Monday.