Sunday, 11 December 2011

Weekend Update

Firstly, there are no midweek bets this week, so don’t expect a post with any bets. There is only one game of interest and although Aberdeen offer slight value at 11/4, it doesn’t qualify as a bet on any system.

OK, a quick round up of the weekend. Apologies for the late post on Friday night. Hopefully anyone following the blog missed the Barnet game which meant it was probably a smaller loss than everyone else who’s following the bets. One advantage of following via the blog I guess. Would have been a disadvantage if Barnet had won though!

It was a strange weekend. I was short of time before I posted the bets up, so I didn’t get a chance to comment. I was going to say that I was apprehensive this weekend due to the fact that there were a number of weak bets at big odds away from home and as always, you need some luck.

As it turned out, Blackpool letting in a late equaliser along with Plymouth meant it was a losing weekend. If Plymouth could have held on, it would have been an OK weekend, so it’s a case of thin margins and all that.

When I see so few systems bets on systems 7-21 to 8-22 (there were none this weekend), my inclination is to believe that the bets thrown up aren’t going to be the best and the results this weekend back this up. However, with a bit more luck, it wouldn’t have been that way, so I don’t think you can read too much into one set of fixtures. There have been a few times this season when I wished the more selective systems had found more bets, so it’s swings and roundabouts I suspect. Maybe a few points saved this weekend on the systems but in the long-run, it won’t matter too much I suspect.

Algorithm one had 12 bets and only found 3 winners. A loss of 4.23pts for H/A betting and a loss of 3.43pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 13 bets and found 5 winners. It found Wigan at 5.72 to beat West Brom, so it ensured a profitable weekend for this algorithm. A profit of 3.99pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.3pts for DNB.

Algorithm three found one winner from 5 bets. A loss of 1.5pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.53pts for DNB betting.

As expected, the systems couldn’t do much with these bets this weekend.

The established systems lost 5.47pts for H/A betting and 7.56pts for DNB betting.

The new systems were slightly worse. A loss of 15pts for H/A betting and a loss of 11.7pts for DNB betting.

I should mention that the SGM systems again had a very poor weekend. The record of Aways on these systems is shocking so far this season (25pts lost from 99 games). It’s amazing how different this record is to the rest of my systems based on shot supremacy. On the other hand, it has been a very tough season so for Homes on all my systems apart from these SGM systems. Homes have made a profit of 15pts from 57 games. I don’t have another system this season that can match this home record at the moment.

Too early to draw meaningful conclusions but for whatever reason, the Away wins this season just haven’t happened on these SGM systems. Interestingly, DNB is doing better for the Aways, so it may just be a case that a few teams that should have won have drawn the game and considering the average aways are 4.0+, then it makes a massive difference to the overall results.

Anyway, these systems are on trial this season along with all the other new systems from this season, so if they don’t start performing, they’ll be dropped as possible systems to be used next season and not added to the official TFA portfolio of systems.

Be back later this week with the weekend bets.

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