Monday, 23 April 2012

Frustrating Results

It’s hard to describe how frustrating the results were at the weekend. 

I think when things start well with a set of fixtures (Bury won 4-2 at odds of 13/2 in the early kick-off), you just assume that it will set you up for a decent day. At one point on Saturday afternoon (around the 80th minute mark), I suspected it could have been the best day the systems had ever had since they went live.  Only had to hold on for another 10-15 minutes….

Anyway, as always happens when you start thinking too far ahead in life, things come back to bite you on the bottom! Bournemouth lost a goal, Rochdale somehow went from supposedly playing really well and scoring to go 1-0 up (they needed to win to stay up for another week) to losing 2-1 in the space of 5 minutes.

These two games alone were enough to turn the possibility of a great day into something not so good!

The Bournemouth game was the most annoying as it was a 20 system bet and these sort of games define the system results in the long-term.

Overall, it was a small loss on my portfolio of systems this weekend (6-21 to 8-22) but a small profit if summing all the systems up together.

I’ll obviously run through all the system results once the season finishes but I was actually surprised when I noticed the results on the second algorithm this season after updating the weekend results. Being honest, I pay so much attention to the combined systems, I sort of let the single systems trundle along without analysing them too much (after all, they aren’t better than the combined systems) but the second algorithm is having a great season in isolation.

Over 500 bets have been picked out by the second algorithm this season and it’s a return of 9.9% at the moment. That is nothing short of brilliant for the base ratings on this system. I sort of think 5% return for any of the ratings algorithms is a good season but with a couple of weeks left of the season, algorithm two looks to have smashed that.  In comparison, algorithm one is at 3.5% over 650 bets and algorithm three is at 4.4% over 600+ bets.  These returns aren’t bad but not sure it means too much as the system results derived from my ratings are what matters at the end of the day but it’s easier for the systems to win if my ratings are having a good season!  If you can make 10% across a massive sample of games, then getting a few systems to work shouldn’t be too difficult.

Anyway, onto the weekend round up.

Algorithm one continues with its recent struggles. Only 4 wins in 20 games. An amazing 9 draws in there though and when you look at the prices of some of the selections in these games (6,9.77,5.4), all it takes is another goal in one of these games for the selection and it paints a totally different picture.  A loss of 4.79pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.42pts for DNB.

As an aside, in the last 43 bets, algorithm one has had 9 winners, 19 draws and 15 losers. It is on a drawdown of 25pts all of a sudden this month which isn’t great but it can be 100% explained by the draws.  It has probably had about 6-7 more draws than you’d expect this month and the swing is 3-4pts on each game. Hence, that’s where the profit has gone.

Algorithm two continues in the opposite fashion and had a winning day again. 13 bets, 5 wins, 4 draws and 4 losers.  A profit of 7.49pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.4pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three only hit 4 winners from 17 bets but still made a profit of 4.35pts for H/A betting thanks to the odds of the winners. There were 5 draws and 8 losses but DNB still managed to make 3.97pts.

Overall, 2 of the 3 algorithms winning means it should have been a good day if all planets aligned but as has happened a few times this month, they didn’t align!

Filtering the bets proved difficult, actually, very difficult!  System 22 took the 13 bets on algorithm two which created a big profit and errr….picked 4 losers!

The established systems made a loss of 4.3pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.5pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a profit of 22.1pts for H/A betting and a profit of 22.4pts for DNB betting.

With only next weekend to come (possibility of one bet for midweek but it is heavily price dependant and unlikely to be a bet unless it drifts this afternoon), we go into next weekend on the verge of only the second losing month this season for the systems.  I guess all good runs have to come to an end sometime, so I’m not going to worry too much about this weekend as it’s out of my hands. It’s also the last day of the season in a couple of leagues this weekend with not much to play for in most games, so I’m not too sure what motivation many teams will have but as usual, I’ll just do the work and highlight the bets, place them myself and record the results. I’ve given up trying to advise what others do!

I’ll let you know whether there will be a midweek bet or not tomorrow or if there are no bets, possibly tonight.


  1. Good analysis as always Graeme.

    I think algorithm 2 has a history of giving good results. My view is that the selections it has that don't go into the 6-21 combo are generally better than the selections algorithm 1 makes that don't go into the combo, so its the one I follow.

    Good luck with final weeks.

  2. Hi Fizzer.

    First time commenting I think although it reads like you know what you’re doing. ;)

    Interesting that you think that tbh. Can’t say it’s something I’ve looked at but it’s nice to hear of another way to make a profit!

    You’re actually the second person today to tell me they had a decent day on Sat (other guy follows 21 and 32), so it’s always nice to hear others have done better than me on a tough day! :)

    System 21 has actually made 50pts profit this season which shocked me today when I noticed it but as always, these systems have the ability to amaze me consistently.

    Cheers for the comment and hopefully we can hit a good weekend this weekend and end the season with 7 monthly profits on the spin!