Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Another long post.......

A few things to discuss today so this could be a long post. Stick with it!

OK, a few people have written to me in the past week asking for priority places for next seasons service. I suspect it’s been driven from the comment in the recent SBC profit report suggesting TFA could be in line for Hall of Fame status come the season end. As discussed a few times on the blog already in the past few months, I don’t want to look too far ahead at this game and my first task is to get us to the end of the season in one piece. I do come across as a bit pessimistic at times in emails and on the blog but anyone who went through what I went through at the backend of last season will never look too far ahead again! Hence, I’m not going to start thinking about plans for next season until the last game is played this season.

As I’ve already let slip on the blog, work is already underway behind the scenes for next season (new Euro Systems, AH betting options, new Under/Over 2.5 systems, new website etc.) but a lot of this won’t be ready until midway through the summer. In addition, I don’t need to add too much to the current offering I suspect as most people will continue to follow the UK systems regardless of what the next set of system results look like (which would be my advice to any new subscribers anyway next season). Therefore, although I’m expanding and hopefully finding new edges, I don’t expect people to subscribe on the basis of what the new systems may achieve next season.

As I’ve said to those that have contacted me, it’s great to know that there is interest in the service for next season (I can’t contrast how different this is to this time last year as very few people showed any interest!) but I’ll give those who want to join next season ample opportunity over the summer. Any spaces will be filled on a first come first served basis and will be advertised via the blog, website or SBC forum. Hence, keep reading the blog, the forums I frequent or check out the new website once it is built!

One question I haven’t been able to answer is what will happen with the blog. Having proofed the systems for the UK leagues for 2 seasons now, I feel like the blog has possibly run its course in terms of these systems. What I’m unsure about is what I will do with the other systems (which to be fair, haven’t been developed yet!). I suspect I may continue to use the blog next season to proof these newer systems and to give people a chance to watch how these develop. I don’t want to say that’s a definite as clearly, I don’t know what these systems will look like but I like the idea of possibly moving onto these other leagues and hopefully building up a readership as I try to create myself an edge on these other leagues.

One thing I love about this blog is the freedom when it comes to analysing stuff and almost a freehand with graphs/tables etc. which means it is an easy tool for me to report back on for any analysis. I have used wordpress before and I’ve used various forums when posting analysis but nothing beats good old blogger in my opinion. Hence, that’s one reason why this blog may remain even if I disappear to a proper website.

Anyway, as you can see, I haven’t given it too much thought as yet (well I have but haven’t formed a conclusion yet!) but as soon as I know more, I’ll let readers know. One thing that does disappoint me a little with this blog is the lack of interaction and comments at times as I can see the readership on the blog is at an all time high (and has slowly increased as more people realise how good these systems are!). Even though there are a number of people following the systems in some shape or form (I know from the hits at the times the blog bets appear that this could be in 3 figures), I barely get a comment at times. I don’t need people to continually tell me how great the systems are but at times, it does feel like I just post bets for people to make money on and I don’t get much back from it. I get more emails from subscribers with comments and I’ve got about 1000% more readers than subscribers this season!

Right, onto more important matters, the results!

As part of the work I’ve been doing on the website (asking for some subscriber feedback), a couple of subscribers have commented on the way I show the daily results on the blog. Since day one, I’ve always shown the P&L for every game played so people can see that the results are being reported accurately. Admittedly, I don’t expect everyone to sit and check every game I show a result on but it was more a question of showing this level of detail in case people thought I would try to misinterpret the results. I think we’re now past this stage and they’ve suggested it’s much easier for them and people reading the blog if I just show the P&L by system for each day of matches. I usually discuss the results at this higher level in my results posts anyway but I don’t show them in a table.

As always, I’m here to please (amazed no one else has asked for this change before now!) and therefore, I’ll show the results by system for each day where games are played. Hence, if people wanted to sum these up, they could get to the monthly results and if they sum these up, they could get to the season results and if they summed these up, they could get the all time results!

So, what has happened since my last results update? A helluva lot of games!

This update includes the games from Friday 6th to Monday 9th. Many teams played twice in this time, so it was nearly two full fixture cards in most leagues.

Algorithm one pinpointed 33 bets. 11 wins, 6 draws and 16 losses. A profit of 3.3pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.1pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two has had 21 bets. 7 wins, 2 draws and 12 losses. A profit of 6.3pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.4pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three has had 35 bets. 10 wins, 7 draws and 18 losses. A profit of 2.1pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.6pts for DNB betting.

Not much more to add to the above. A fairly low strike rate for winners but there was a high average odds for the bets as I commented on when I posted the bets for each set of games, so it’s pleasing to see every algorithm has made a profit of some sort of the busy period. DNB has clearly struggled a bit with a low number of draws and therefore, the teams selected tended to win or lose which always means using some form of Asian Handicap betting is going to hurt the returns.

As always, how the systems used these bets is the thing that matters the most to us.

The established systems made a profit of 30.2pts from 86 bets. The DNB profit was only 9.9pts. That’s an ROI of 35% for H/A and 11.5% for DNB. Within these systems, the combined systems had 24 bets and generated a profit of 12.8pts (53% ROI). A nice start to the month for the combined systems as they aim for their 7th profitable month in a row.

The newer systems made a profit of 1.4pts from 141 bets. DNB was a loss of 12.2pts.

As you can see, a really poor start to the month for the newer systems after their amazing exploits last month. Quite simply, the newer systems were punished for having too many bets at big prices who didn’t perform well. Most of the damage was done yesterday with a high number of big priced aways and only one of them winning.

There you go then, a lot of bets in a short space of time and as always, depending on which systems you follow and which method of betting, you could have achieved anything from a decent start to the month to a break-even start to the month.


  1. Mr Analyst

    Its a good point about a lack of interaction on the bloog and all I can say is that from experiance not to take it personally as Im in a similar situation. My hits during the masters were at an all time high and despite suggesting a trade on ooooost (who came 2nd and traded at 1.57) I had one comment thanking me!

    Keep up the good work

  2. Hi Geoff. Thanks for the comment.

    Yeah, I try my best to not judge this blog by the number of comments or the interaction with readers as I’d probably give up if this was the case. I’d like to think that there are a lot of readers who enjoy reading about the systems, enjoy tracking the performance of them and hopefully, some are using the bets for their own betting. As I said in the post, I get a lot more feedback and communication with the guys who subscribe to the service but maybe that’s to be expected? I don’t know what’s normal really but if I was getting the bets from the blog for free and doing well, I’d probably comment! :)

    Well done with your golf picks. On my old blog when I was learning about Betfair, I used to adopt the very same strategy as you suggested and I think it works very well on the golf. I actually think golf in particular works very well for basic swing trading as there always tends to be an overshooting effect where players shorten far too much when they don’t really do that much. I covered it in depth on my old blog under the ‘dornbusch overshooting model’ title. I’ve just googled this and it appears on the first page of entries, so I’m guessing there must be a lot of confused economists out there at times who stumble across that blog entry!

    My biggest win was actually the countryman of Oooost, Immmmmm. He won it a few years back and I had him at err….(just looked back at the blog!) not sure what odds actually but I won £350 on the market and I only played small stakes! I think he was around the 180 mark or so at the start and I had £3 on him!

    Cheers for the comment and good luck with your future investments.


  3. Graeme,

    I only came across your blog not much more than a month ago, but am an avid reader now. To be honest, I would have thought you would be so busy with producing the blog/bets, and having a full time job, and wife, that you wouldn't desperately seeking comments, but as you've asked.....

    There is no doubt what you are coming up with is very special in terms of ROI. I am following 7.22, and I think you are at about 37pc ROI, so far - incredible. Only slight downside is it looks like we will end the season with maybe only approx 70 bets, versus almost twice that number last year.

    70 bets means the system will only have invested 1.75x it's bank, whereas many other services will be looking at 5x plus. But like you say, size of betting bank is very subjective, and quite obviously 7.22 followers wouldn't have needed anything like 40 points this year. ROI is very objective, and 37pc cannot be argued with.

    You can 100 pc count me in for next season, and I will be looking out for details of how to join, and any recommendations or indications you give about the best systems to follow.

    Until then, keep up the brilliant work.

  4. Hi Andrew.

    Thanks for the comment.

    I think I’m being honest when I say that most of the really insightful posts on this blog have come from me when I’ve responded to comments or emails I’ve received, so in a way, the more people contribute to the blog, the more interesting reading it should be.

    As for not having the time, as I’ve said many times before, I sort of juggle my time the best I can and at times when there are a lot of games taking place (like last month!), it’s impossible for me to do much more other paste bets on here. However, I actually enjoy the analysis and system building side of this game almost as much as following the actual selections, so I’m always more than happy to spend time doing a piece of analysis.

    Your comment will actually lead to a blog post on the subject of this season v last season. As you rightly point out, the number of bets has been very different this season (I know why as do my email subscribers but not sure I’ve discussed it on the blog!) and it deserves a proper look.

    Your point about betting bank for 7-22 is actually linked to the above in a way. However, I personally don’t know anyone who is following 7/22 with a 40pt bank. The longest drawdown is 16pts in nearly 6 seasons of backtesting and live results and if you study the drawdown graph and P&L graph (I’ll paste it on the blog post for you to see), then it’s hard to say that 40pt is a fair bank for this system. Again, the blog is written for a certain audience but once people understand the systems a little, then they can take a lot of what I suggest on here with a pinch of salt. My intention with the blog suggested betting banks was to cover my own ass more than trying to maximise anyone’s ROC. ;)

    Of course, the fact that system now has less bets than before (but at a higher ROI) means that even using the historical drawdowns isn’t a fair way to set a bank for this system. Again, I’ll mention this on the blog post. The opposite is true for the systems with more bets though, so whereas anyone following the blog betting banks on 7/22 is overcapitalised a great deal, I suspect those following a system like 6-21 are sailing very close to the wind. Thankfully, they’ll be enjoying it though as even with a higher average odds and bigger potential drawdowns, the systems with more bets have done OK this season!

    One thing that does come across from reading comments like yours Andrew is the average IQ of the guys who do read this blog and subsequently do subscribe to the service. I would struggle to think of a better calibre of gamblers that are following these systems. That maybe explains why I don’t have many members even though my results are the best of any comparable footie ratings service. Hopefully the work I’m putting into the website will help show others that this service is actually easy to follow if you stick to some basic ground rules. However, as always with this game, the more you read about the subject (in this case, the systems) and work on things yourself, the better your returns can be.

    Keep an eye out for the next post then…….