Sunday, 15 April 2012

Disappointing Weekend

Another interesting weekend on the footie and not for the first time this season, it’s not easy for me to determine how bad a weekend it really was.

I said on Friday that if I had 2 winners from the 7 important games, this would ensure I didn’t have a really bad day and thankfully, 2 of the 7 won, so it ensured it wasn’t a disaster of a day. When I go on to discuss the overall rating results below and the systems results, you’ll see it wasn’t a good day at all. However, sometimes, I have to hold my hands up and say that it was nearly impossible for my ratings to have a good day. I suspect this weekend was one of these times.

In 50 games I rated, there were 22 draws. Yes, that isn’t a typo. A 44% draw rate in the 50 games played. Considering I don’t advise draw picks, this alone is probably enough to ensure I would have a losing weekend.

Taking it one step further, there were only 5 away winners at odds of greater than 2.75 in these 50 games. Again, considering my systems specialise in big priced aways, it means it’s nearly impossible to win on a weekend like this. Thankfully, 2 of the 5 winners were part of the this group of 7 I mention above, so overall, I suspect I was lucky to only lose the amount I did!

Anyway, regardless of what I think about the set of results, the system results are all that matters!

Algorithm one had 17 bets. 3 winners, 8 draws and 6 losers. A loss of 8.4pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.87pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 7 bets. 2 winners, 2 draws and 3 losers. A loss of 0.6pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.44pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 21 bets, 4 winners, 11 draws and 6 losers. A loss of 10.15pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.28pts for DNB.

As you can see, a disaster of a weekend for the first and third rating algorithm but thankfully, the 2nd rating algorithm played it’s usual role in reducing the number of bets and thankfully, it did an amazing job!

The established systems only suffered a loss of 17.8pts for H/A betting and 5.6pts for DNB betting.

The new systems only suffered a loss of 14.6pts for H/A betting and 1.8pts for DNB betting.

Quite a remarkable performance to only lose these amounts this weekend. The actual record if we look at all 3 rating algorithms was 24 individual games selected, 4 wins, 12 draws and 8 losses and a loss of 13.15pts. To only hit 4 winners from 24 and not have a disaster of a weekend is all down to the way the systems are built and their ability to narrow down bets successfully.

Said this lots of times now on this blog but the thing that separates my systems from many others is the ability to minimise losses. Profits take care of themselves but controlling losses is the key at this game! I think they just about managed that yesterday.

Next post should be on Tuesday morning as there is a full set of fixtures in the Championship.

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