Monday, 30 April 2012

Month hinges on the Manchester Derby

Apologies for the formatting on the last post. Blogger has changed the way posting works and I’ve not quite got to grips with it yet!

Just a quick update before tonight’s game. I managed to avoid any carnage at the weekend despite having so many bets.  Bournemouth are trying their best to ensure the systems have a losing month and for the second week in a row, they’ve let a 1-0 lead slip when they have appeared on all 20 systems.  I hadn’t noticed this until I was updating the results but Bournemouth were also a 7/22 bet the previous weekend against Bury!  That’s 3 weeks in a row they’ve been a 7/22 bet and they’ve not managed to win any of the 3.  Very frustrating.

Feel a little sorry for those only following system 7-22 as in the last 23 bets, they’ve only been on the loser four times. The draw has ensured that the system has had a losing month with the last 3 games finishing in draws.

I’ll do a proper results post tomorrow but it is actually quite interesting reading. As you know, I tend to place some emphasis on the monthly P&L. I know it doesn’t really mean anything but I’ve been really proud of the fact that the systems have shown great consistency over the last two seasons on a monthly basis. 

Well, amazingly, this whole month hinges on the game tonight. If Man City win, the established systems and the new systems will have another profitable month.  More importantly though, the combined systems also need a Man City win to finish the month in profit. These are the systems which are reported on by the SBC and at the moment, they have had a winning run of 6 profitable months.  If Man City win, that becomes 7 straight monthly profits this season. If they don’t win, it will be a loss of 0.6pts on the month for these systems!  :(

In a way, given system 7/22 lost this month, I sort of feel like the combined systems deserve to have a losing month. I’d feel a little bad saying it’s another profitable month, knowing that those who only follow 7/22 would have had a losing month.  In addition, the established systems will have a had a profitable month, regardless of whether or not Man City win tonight.  That means that the combined systems would then fall back into line with the established systems which would mean a profit in 13 of the 17 months to date. 

Being honest, whether it’s 13 or 14 winning doesn’t really matter too much to anyone apart from me I suspect but I thought it was worth sharing!


  1. Pfft, don't worry about us 7/22 disciples Graeme. I think we've all had a half decent season all in all. :)

  2. Yeah, I think after updating the results last night and taking a wee look at all system results, I suspect you’re right Rowan!

    I think it does pose an interesting dilemma for next season though as I think 7/22 probably has too few bets now to followed in isolation. Just my take on things really but as April has shown, all it takes is a few teams to draw instead of winning and it turns a winning month into a losing month.

    With less than 100 bets in a season, it’s not impossible for the system to have a poor season, simply due to variance I suspect. Of course, if any system can dodge this, I suspect this is it as it seems so good at picking out the best bets but I guess it’s something to be wary of.

    Cheers for the mention on your blog too! Nice to mentioned in the same breath as Skeeve if I’m honest, even though it had nothing to do with our respective services! I think Skeeve’s set the benchmark when it comes to football tipping, so I’ve a long way to go before I can get anywhere near his efforts. I’m trying though. :)