Saturday, 28 April 2012

Unbelievable Jeff......


Here's the email I sent to subscribers on Friday afternoon.

Hi guys.

Taking this opportunity at my lunch to drop you a quick note regarding tonight’s bets. 

I can’t say this for sure as my odds are based on Wednesday evening at about 10pm and I’ve not seen them since (looked a little on my phone at 6.30am flying back from Ireland!) but having now worked through the systems bets this morning, at first count, I reckon I’ve got value bets (which appear on at least one system) in 40 games this weekend!

I had a feeling this may happen as basically, so many teams have nothing to play for, the bookmakers price them up a bit differently and my ratings disagree with them.
I had a quick look back and 12 months ago, there were 62 system bets and only 6 winners on April 30th last year which is the corresponding fixture set.  A loss of 40pts.

There are going to be in excess of 200 system bets this weekend, so there is a potential of carnage this weekend.  The reason for the higher number of bets is all the changes I implemented which I’ve discussed before, so I would expect more bets than last year but not 3-4 times as many!

I’ve not got the bets on the systems as yet (will do it later this afternoon) but I suspect we’ll see the busiest day of the season this weekend.  I’m suspecting many of the teams will have seen a drop in odds since Wednesday evening (other services will have all issued by tonight at 8pm), so some will be dropped but I would guess more would be added too as bets if odds have moved in their favour.

I’m already playing smaller stakes than earlier this season and have done through all of March and April, so I’m not overly concerned for myself and as I always say, every bet will still count as a proofed bet, so if you want to match my proofed results, ignore this email completely.

I just think I’d feel guilty if the weekend went really badly and people asked me what happened last season and I said the same thing happened then too.

In case you wonder, if I go back another season, it’s 28 winners from 86 bets and a loss of 23pts.  I’ve looked back even further quickly and it gets hazy if I’m honest as leagues change over time and the same sort of data means less the further I go back but if I look at the end of April, start of May, I struggle to find a winning day in most seasons!

You could argue we’re due a decent day in this fixture list (last season was close to being a good day but there were a lot of draws!) but on the other hand, you could say my ratings struggle on this day.

Whatever happens, the bets will be sent out as normal.

I’m hoping for a brilliant weekend as the systems are going for their 7th profitable month in a row which would be an amazing achievement for a set of football systems!

Let’s hope the Gods are smiling on us!

And here's the bets for this weekend.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 28th-30th April
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Southport Grimsby 2.06 1.49
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Braintree Braintree 5.80 4.34
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Derby v Peterborough Derby 2.00 1.46
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Colchester v Tranmere Tranmere 3.06 2.16
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Chesterfield Yeovil 2.80 2.00
28/04/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Rotherham Rotherham 2.92 2.06
28/04/2012 League 2 Barnet v Wimbledon Barnet 2.10 1.52
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Crawley v Hereford Hereford 10.51 8.47
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Oxford v Southend Southend 3.28 2.34
28/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Dagenham Dagenham 9.05 7.17
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Fulham Everton 1.86 1.35
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Sunderland v Bolton Bolton 4.00 2.87
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Hearts 4.20 3.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Newport Newport 2.89 2.08
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Southport Grimsby 2.06 1.49
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 Championship Southampton v Coventry Coventry 11.00 9.16
28/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Sheff Wed Brentford 4.33 3.15
28/04/2012 League 1 Bury v Oldham Oldham 3.45 2.46
28/04/2012 League 1 Colchester v Tranmere Tranmere 3.06 2.16
28/04/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Leyton Orient Hartlepool 2.30 1.64
28/04/2012 League 1 Preston v Charlton Preston 3.85 2.72
28/04/2012 League 1 Rochdale v MK Dons Rochdale 4.50 3.29
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Chesterfield Yeovil 2.80 2.00
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Northampton v Gillingham Northampton 3.40 2.44
28/04/2012 League 2 Oxford v Southend Southend 3.28 2.34
28/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Dagenham Dagenham 9.05 7.17
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Crewe Crewe 3.50 2.49
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Fulham Everton 1.86 1.35
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
28/04/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Hearts 4.20 3.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Fulham Everton 1.86 1.35
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
28/04/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Hearts 4.20 3.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50


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