Monday, 16 May 2011

Goodbye 2010/11....Hello to 2011/12

The monthly review for May-11 is now up on the monthly review section of the blog. Overall, it was a decent month with a profit of 56pts (53% ROI) but as I say in the review, you need to keep things in perspective. It only recoups 53% of the loss made in April.

I think before I move onto next season and planning for that, I should just do a quick post on the season that I'm leaving behind. As I've said before, my season ended at the weekend although there is still one set of Premiership games to take place next season.

Due to the fact I've had the blog this season and I've written regular monthly reviews also, it isn't my intention to write a 'fantastic' season end review as there is no point. I'd just be repeating everything I've said throughout the season and it becomes repetitive to write, let alone read! Hence, I've kept it very short and created a new section on the blog where I've posted it.

The systems have ended with an 8.9% ROI this season which at the end of the day, isn't a disaster and is probably a fair reflection of the season. I wanted judged on system 8 this season if I had to pick one as it was the system I had most confidence in at the outset and it has ended the season with a 9% return. All of these bets have been proofed since day one this season.

Now that I've finished the monthly review for May and the season review, I can get started with building towards doing much better next season. The starting place for this is a review of all the systems from this season........


  1. The season has been a long ride, Graeme. Some great highs pre-Christmas, and some hard-hitting reality checks post-Christmas. But standing back and looking at it all now, I think those of us that have been following are a lot wiser and more experienced now than we were last August. And ultimately, isn't that where you wanted to be at the end of 2010-11?

    All the best, mate.


  2. Hi Rowan.

    Yeah, it feels like it has been a long ride this season mate. Being honest, the last few months have seemed to go on forever and I'm pleased the season is ending!

    There are so many ways to look at this season and I could have written a book for the season review but you hit the nail on the head I think. At the start of this season, the aim was to try to find something that could work going forward from next season and although I can't guarantee that the systems will make a profit next season, I'm pretty confident they'll do OK after what I've seen this season.

    I think if we 'truthfully' look at what has happened since Christmas and the number of draws we've had (you're sitting with a 40% draw rate since you started following system 8-22!), then you have to say it looks good that the systems have only lost a small amount since Christmas. I don't doubt that I've got an edge here now and at the start of the season, although the past results indicated that this was the case, we couldn't be sure that my ratings had an edge.

    System 8 is the one that I think sums up the season and after having a 17% ROI at 31/12/2010, it ended the season at 9% and I think this is a fair reflection of my ratings this season.

    Anyone who's been following the systems has lost money since Christmas (we're both in that boat!) but that's a little unfair to only concentrate on the systems at the poorest part of the season for them. Over the season as a whole, it hasn't been as good as I hoped it would be but then again, it sets us up nicely for next season as we are more prepared for what to expect I think.

    I say it hasn't been great but then again, the 6 systems where teams have appeared on both my algorithms have all had an ROI of 9%+ this season and the more selective systems have achieved an ROI of 15%. Again, not much good to any of us for this season as I picked up this trend too late but we can now be confident that these are the strongest bets to follow going forward.

    I'm confident that with a bit more work this summer, I can improve things and of course, I'm keen to build another algorithm for DNB in particular which will be tracked next season on a trial basis. Plenty to look forward to I think.

    Cheers for the comment mate!


    PS. I didn't mention it above but I honestly think this season is a tough season for the footie. Hence, if they can make 9% in a tough season overall, what can they do in a good season? Hopefully we'll find out next season......