The two things that stand out this season is the performance of lower priced aways when they represent marginal value and the performance of low value aways in the Premiership. Both types of bets will be dropped next season. I'll keep backing Premiership Aways when they are deemed to be very high value and I'll keep backing lower priced aways when my ratings suggest they are high value bets. These types of bets don't happen often as it's hard to find value with low priced aways but after a bit of research, it's clear that when they come along, they are worth following.
As I said a while back, one reason for doing the system reviews for last season is so we can update our betting banks for each system. I've given this a bit of thought and I'm going to recommend slightly higher betting banks than I suggested for last season.
I usually go with twice the largest drop from the peak but for this season, I'm going to suggest 2.5 times the largest drop from the peak. I know that most people choose a betting bank that suits them anyway, regardless of what I say but I don't mind sacrificing a higher ROC (return on capital) to ensure I don't put my betting bank under pressure at any point in time.
The betting banks for this season are therefore:
As you will see, I've suggested betting banks for anyone wishing to use Draw No Bets this season. This isn't my preferred approach but after what happened this season, I wouldn't blame anyone who wants to follow this type of betting next season.
That's my first major piece of work completed then for next season which isn't bad considering it's still May! My next task is to build a new set of ratings which looks to maximise returns from Draw No Bets instead of the traditional Home and Away betting. I'll be back later in the week to update on how this is going......
it is the first time i enter your blog, and i am very impressed...can you explain the systems , how you play them...sorry for my english.
ReplyDeleteHi Anonymous.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you're not the only one who stumbles across the blog and runs away when you see some of the content on it! Asking questions is the best way to understand what is going on though.
I don't want to spend time explaining the systems in detail as it's all on here if you fancy reading back and have few hours spare but simply, there is two sets of ratings that produce bets at the moment. Ratings 1 produce bets on systems 6,7 and 8 and Ratings 2 produce bets on systems 21 and 22.
I also have another 6 systems which are when teams appear on two systems from the different rating sets. i.e. 6-21 means a team that appears on system 6 and system 21.
That gives me 11 base systems from the ratings.
The difference between system 6, 7 and 8 for example is the amount of value on each bet. The highest value bets only appear on system 8, medium/high value bets appear on system 7 and low/medium/high value bets appear on system 6. Therefore, system 6 contains every value bet thrown up by the first set of ratings and system 7 and 8 filter these bets. Same scenario for system 21 and 22.
6-21,6-22 etc. are a bit different as they contain a mixture of bets really. Hence, you get all types of bets thrown up on these combined systems but for example, any bet that appears on 8-22 must be the highest value bets on both rating algorithms. Hence, 8-22 is the strongest bets I can possibly find!
I'm currently working on a 3rd set of ratings for next season and these will form systems 31,32 and 33. These systems will be aimed at trying to maximise returns from Draw No Bet betting but ultimately, it will throw up decent enough bets to bet on for traditional H/A betting since backing the draw is loss making. Hence, backing DNB can never produce a better return than backing teams to win using my ratings I think. It can provide a smoother journey though.
As for how I'm going to play the ratings next season, I'll be following a portfolio of my systems with a mixture of H/A bets and DNB bets. I'll be staking more on the higher value bets and hopefully not having too many bets or too much staked on some teams as that was an error I did this season.
I don't quite know what to advise others as I'm still working on the portfolio of systems and I like to do one thing at a time but I learnt a lot of lessons this season from the football and I'll share all these with people via the blog before the season starts. Obvious errors being changing staking as the season progressed and adding and dropping systems as the season progressed. Simply, you need to start out with a portfolio of systems on day one, set up an appropriate bank and follow it through until the end of the season. Don't try to use variable staking, new systems, dropping systems and so on as simply, you'll usually end up on the wrong side of any decisions you make in my experience!
Hope this helps for the moment.
Graeme