I was annoyed to see Coventry somehow lose a game where they were 1-0 up in injury time on Tuesday night but as I keep saying, I'm personally not backing these, so maybe a small part of me didn't care too much. Just so you know how much a game like this can affect the systems, Coventry appeared on 5 of the established systems. Hence, it was a swing of 20pts against the systems there. Ouch!
Having been on the end of this numerous times last season from Christmas, it does hurt a fair bit when it happens. That's partly why DNB on big priced aways helps the mindset. However, I can't imagine what I'd have felt like if I'd backed DNB in that game. :(
Overall, there were only 8 games where my ratings defined value. They only found 3 winners but it still amounted to a profit of 6.52pts across the 8 games. An ROI of 81.5%. If backing these DNB, it came to a profit of 3.9pts and an ROI of 48.3%.
As discussed last time, that's a little harsh on the DNB return since the ratings said there was only DNB value in 6 games. These 6 games made a profit of 4.22pts and an ROI of 70.4%.
Even though no one has asked me this midweek (sure you're as curious as me anyway now!), I've had a quick look at the systems and how they played the games. Overall, there were 23 system bets in midweek. If Coventry had held on to win, the top 3 rated games would have won at odds of 4,7,5.22 and I'd have probably retired the systems there and then for the season as I can't beat that. However, they didn't win, so it wasn't as good as it could have been!
The 23 system games returned a profit of 27.6pts. An ROI of 119.8%. Backing DNB returned a profit of 17pts and an ROI of 73.8%.
Overall, a good midweek although it could have been better if Coventry had held on. However, Oldham did score pretty late on Tuesday to win, so it's all part of the game with late goals at big odds aways I think.
All of the combined systems from last season are running at ROI's of 100%+ at the moment which makes me chuckle but I'll be glad when we get away from these bets and onto the real bets in a few weeks. I might actually start making some money then and so might some others who are following my advice to ignore these bets at the moment!
Graeme
Hi Graeme.
ReplyDeleteExceptional start to the season.I'm regretting only following with small stakes until the system bets start.
Can you show the results by system so far this season?I've already selected my systems for the season ahead but want to check they have been doing OK so far.
Keep up the great work.
Henrik
Hi Henrik.
ReplyDeleteBeing honest, it was never my intention to discuss the system bets performance before the real bets start in 2 weeks. I looked after someone asked me how they did last weekend and I looked in midweek out of curiosity.
I don't mind posting the results but it feels slightly opportunistic given the results to date. There have only been 91 system bets so far which has generated a profit of 88pts but it's too small a sample to read too much into.
If it's OK with you, I'll wait till after this weekend's results as that will give us a bigger sample to look at. For the record, system 6-21 before today has 16.3pts profit from 12 games so far and is leading the way out of all the systems.
Cheers,
Graeme
Thanks Graeme.Look forward to reading it.
ReplyDeleteHow many system bets this weekend?
Henrik
Hi Henrik.
ReplyDelete56 system bets this weekend mate. With the average odds of the aways, likely to be a good day or a disaster I suspect for the systems!
Graeme