Sunday, 21 August 2011

Levels it up a little......

I feel like I’ve spent a long time on the blog this summer discussing how my ratings at times can look like the worst thing I’ve ever seen. Obviously, they can look like the best thing since sliced bread but sometimes, I look at the results and wonder how the hell they ever make a profit!

This weekend is definitely one of those times I think.

As I mentioned on my last post, there was a lack of high value bets this weekend and with the average odds of the aways, I had a feeling it would either be very good or very bad. What I didn’t think would happen though would be the homes would have a washout!

21 value bets in total this weekend, 1 winner and 20 losers. 5 of the 9 home games were a draw. Overall, a loss of 17.7pts to 1pt level stakes. If using DNB, slightly better with a loss of only 10.67pts.

As I keep saying, the DNB return here is unfair as if we use the DNB ratings, we can see that there was only 12 DNB value games. These made a loss of 4.67pts. This topic needs a post on its own this week as it’s something that’s quite important I think for anyone considering DNB this season.

Obviously, the above results don’t mean much as it’s the system bets that matter. 56pts staked and 46pts lost this weekend. Ouch. If backing DNB, you would have escaped with a loss of 27pts.

Whatever way you look at the above, a disaster of a weekend.

Someone asked me on Saturday on the blog to post the system results. I decided against posting before the games this weekend as I felt it would have been opportunistic to show results after two great sets of games. This weekend levels it up a little though.

Here’s the results of the trial to date:

Looking at the above, nothing is too surprising so far. There has been a distinct lack of very high value bets to date which has meant that many of the bets so far have only appeared on systems 6 or 21 which are the weakest bets my ratings find. Hence, the low value bets have been performing very up and down so far and when they work, they look amazing but when they don’t, they make you look daft. Anyone following systems 6,7 and 21 will fully appreciate this already as we saw it last season.

The way around this variance is to use the combine systems as I showed last season and although they took a hit this weekend, the results are still decent enough so far although it’s a small sample.

Overall, with 3 sets of games into this trial before the real system bets start, I can’t say I’ve seen anything too much to make me think we’re missing a trick by not playing these early games. I did have my doubts after the first couple of sets of bets but this weekend has helped a little to bring things back into perspective!

I’ll post up any midweek bets tomorrow.

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