It felt a little strange watching the games last weekend and not having any financial interest in the games at all. As I've said a few times now, I'm really disciplined when it comes to the punting side of things and I won't be having any bets until the first 6 games have been played.
However, I'll admit to being a little envious when I read Cassini's blog at the weekend and saw some picks posted for the first set of European games. Reading through Cassini's blog this morning, I missed the comment Cassini had posted when he said he rolls over the form from the end of last season but he won't have much confidence in it until the first 6 games are played.
Well, there is nothing to stop me from doing the same on here. We're all adults on this blog (well, if you read some of the anonymous comments I delete, that would be debatable!) and therefore, there is nothing to stop me from trying to do something similar with the leagues I play in.
I'll stress again that I won't be backing in these games but I like having some sort of interest in the games and for someone like me, trying to find a way to roll on form between leagues and from one season to another is quite intellectually challenging but also very interesting!
So, I'll be posting up the first set of bets this weekend for a bit of fun. However, I don't want anyone to think these are anything other than a bit of fun, so I won't be putting them into the systems that we're so familiar with on here. What I'll do instead is just post the teams, the % value I think they represent and we can track these bets over the next few weeks. Of course, if things went really well, then I would think about starting next season on day one which would be pretty revolutionary when it comes to ratings and supplying bets to others (aside from Sir Cassini who is doing this already!)
Of course, I'm deliberately putting myself in a no lose situation here because if the bets all bomb over the next few weeks, I'll be taking great pleasure from the fact I'm not betting on them and not suggesting anyone else does. On the other hand, if they do amazingly well, I'll be slapping myself on the back for being able to run a ratings algorithm effectively using no live data from this season.
One thing I need to give a bit of thought to is how I deal with teams who are relegated and promoted. At the moment, I'd be having the mortgage on Swansea away to Man City I suspect this weekend looking at my ratings from the end of last season. I need to look at adjusting the teams who are promoted and relegated by a factor called X. I'll use the last 5 seasons and adjust for how promoted and relegated teams do in their first few games before their rating adjusts from the previous season's finishing position.
For the Bsq Prem games, I'll just stay clear of the newly promoted teams for a bit as I'm not about to try to interpret the lower league results by season. Not worth the hassle for a bit of fun!
I'll also try to say which teams are value for DNB too just in case DNB does really well with these bets early on in the season.
So, I'll be back in a couple of days with these bets. Just need to work out how much to reduce Swansea's value by! ;)