Tuesday, 14 February 2012

ROI for show, ROC for dough......

Just a really quick post to say that I’ve added another tab to the blog. I asked my email subscribers for feedback and two of them commented on the fact that it’s actually really difficult to know what the results are at any point in time.


I do daily results, monthly results and of course, I’ll spend a long time discussing the results at season end but I don’t actually have anywhere on the blog that shows the results to date for the season or even an easy place to see the results from last season. Being honest, it’s one of these things whereby when you’re so engrossed in something, you can’t see the wood for the trees.

I think one issue I’ve always had is that it’s difficult to find the best way to show the results. I’ve found a way I like though, so let me know if this does the trick. It should be big enough to read!

Now I see the results, I sort of want to add notation to say which systems are the established systems and new systems and which systems are the combined systems and lastly, which systems are SMG systems as ultimately, the new systems are making the returns look in line with last season but in reality, the systems from last season are doing better this season!

Anyway, I’ll leave the interpretation of the results to others.

What I would say (can’t resist a comment!) is that people spend a lot of time (and money!) trying to find a profitable football system to follow. I’ve got 20 systems on the go for this season and backing H/A, only one system is currently making a loss. Backing DNB, only one is losing.

As of today, there have been 5,839 bets proofed to the SBC (as well as on this blog) and it has resulted in a profit of 550pts. Sounds OK but in reality, I think you only understand the overall results if you look at the individual system results.

One thing that is always interesting for me personally with having so many systems is trying to understand what people do with the bets. I was interested to read on the http://green-pullover.blogspot.com/ blog that the author has developed his own way to play some of the system bets. He won’t be surprised to learn that he’s not alone with doing this and I now know of at least 10+ ways people are playing the bets. That’s not including me!

I’ve sort of recorded the ways people have told me they are playing and come season end, it will be interesting to see which ways produce the highest return on capital. I could have said ROI but ROC is a much better measure of success for a gambling system in my opinion.

An easy example can be seen from this season. System 7-22 has a profit of 17.6pts if backing the team to win outright and a profit of 9.3pts if following DNB (covering the draw). Since there have been 52 bets this season on the system, H/A has an ROI of 33.9% and DNB has an ROI of 17.9%. Clearly, backing the teams to win outright is a better system isn’t it?

Well, let’s look at the suggested banks for each strategy. If backing outright, I suggested a bank of 40pts. If backing DNB, I suggested a bank of 20pts. The rationale being that the worst drawdown for H/A is 16pts and the worst drawdown for DNB is 8pts. Hence, using a multiplier of 2.5, I came up with these banks. Obviously, I know 2.5 is very conservative and I don’t use as big a multiplier as that and I’m guessing many others don’t do but let’s just keep this simple!

What is the return on capital? Well, H/A has made a ROC of 44% and DNB has made a ROC of 46.5%.

Would you rather have a higher ROI or a higher ROC?

Of course, the reason people don’t get too bogged down with ROC is at the end of the day, many people gambling don’t sit with the full betting bank suggested waiting on a drawdown. In addition, calculating the ‘correct’ betting bank is nearly impossible.

Someone could say that a ROC of 44% is nowhere near as good as that offered by another tipster or another system. Of course, if I said that the betting bank needed for H/A was only 20pts, then my ROC this season is now 88% and looking much better! Hence, it’s a subjective measure and not one that can be compared with other gambling opportunities easily but something worth considering when developing a strategy with my systems.

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