33% Strike Rate

The title of the post relates to the fact that there were 15 bets this weekend defined as value by the TFA ratings. It ended up with 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. With only a 33% strike rate, that is going to ensure the systems make a loss overall on most occasions. A poor weekend for my ratings.

I haven’t had the time to analyse the results for the past 6-8 weeks in much depth as yet (well, more depth than usual!) but I’m really keen to see how many games have finished in a draw. As those in the TFA forum know, I stupidly don’t record the results of each game in my spreadsheets. I just record win/loss against each selection. Hence, any work I want to carry out involving the draw will involve me going back to gather this additional data and adding it to my results. I’ve been meaning to do it since the start of the season really and it was always on the cards for me to do this during the Summer but I might try to bring this project forward a little after the recent run of results.

At the odds I’m playing at on the Aways especially, you expect to hit a high number of draws when the away side doesn’t win but over the past 2 months or so, I’m sure this number is very high and much higher than the long-term average. Obviously, it’s only a hypothesis at the moment but I’ll hopefully get time over the next few weeks to collect this additional data to analyse.

Anyway, on to yesterday. A loss of 11.8pts on the single bets with nearly all the systems suffering a small loss. A late goal for Fulham ensured it wasn’t a total disaster but overall, not the best day the systems have had but thankfully, not the worst day!

The multiple bets suffered badly from draws on a couple of systems. System 16 had 2 winners and 3 draws and system 17 had 2 winners and 2 draws from the 5 bets. The other systems all had more losers than winners I think. Overall, a loss of nearly 60pts on these systems on Saturday.

I’ve already started looking at the fixtures for the midweek and Tuesday has the potential to be a busy night with nearly full cards in the Championship down to the Bsq Prem, so I’ll be back with any bets tomorrow night for these games.