It's hard to not feel slightly frustrated again after the weekend that has just past.
I'm trying my best to not get too sucked into the short-term at the moment with the number of draws that my systems are hitting but after a nightmare January and February, and after a decent start this month, it is starting to go the same way as the preceding two months.
For the second or third time this month, simply backing each of the games that appeared as value was the way to make a nice profit. I know long-term that this isn't an optimal strategy (these games all appear on system 6&21 which aren't great systems) but in the short-term, it is very annoying when this happens.
8 games this weekend, 4 wins and 4 losses. With Yeovil in there at 7/2 along with Rotherham at 17/10, it was always going to be a profitable week for this strategy. A profit of 3.78pts from 8 games.
Unfortunately, the systems took this profit and turned it into a 4.84pt loss on the weekend for the single bets! 19 bets, 5 wins and 14 draws were the system results.
The multiple bet (system 17) had no chance either with the 4 teams returning a winner and 3 draws for another 11pt loss.
I'll be writing my usual monthly review later this week and therefore, I don't want to quote too much on what has happened this month as it will spoil the enjoyment for me when I write the review. However, systems 22 will be having its 3rd losing month in a row this month which is most disappointing for one of my best systems. I've had a quick look this morning and system 22 is sitting with a 37% draw strike rate in 2011. Amazing really considering it is over a sample size of 110 bets but then again, 110 bets can hardly be described as a large sample!
My best hope is that the systems stop hitting so many draws and simply go back to somewhere near the long-term trend for draws. Over the last 3 months, the number of home wins have been bang in line with the long-term average. Unfortunately, the away win % is down by 6 points each month on average which is being eaten up by the draw. Over two thirds of the bets my systems find are away bets, so when this sort of run happens in the short-term, there isn't a lot I can do about it but hold tight!
Anyway, there are some midweek games in England on Tuesday/Wednesday this week, so I'll be back later with the bets for those.
Thanks for the comments on here and across at the TFA forum regarding the DNB/DC analysis. The weekend was a good example of what can happen with these systems and the draw, so it was good timing from me in that respect to write the post this weekend!