I'm trying my best to not get too sucked into the short-term at the moment with the number of draws that my systems are hitting but after a nightmare January and February, and after a decent start this month, it is starting to go the same way as the preceding two months.
For the second or third time this month, simply backing each of the games that appeared as value was the way to make a nice profit. I know long-term that this isn't an optimal strategy (these games all appear on system 6&21 which aren't great systems) but in the short-term, it is very annoying when this happens.
8 games this weekend, 4 wins and 4 losses. With Yeovil in there at 7/2 along with Rotherham at 17/10, it was always going to be a profitable week for this strategy. A profit of 3.78pts from 8 games.
Unfortunately, the systems took this profit and turned it into a 4.84pt loss on the weekend for the single bets! 19 bets, 5 wins and 14 draws were the system results.
The multiple bet (system 17) had no chance either with the 4 teams returning a winner and 3 draws for another 11pt loss.
I'll be writing my usual monthly review later this week and therefore, I don't want to quote too much on what has happened this month as it will spoil the enjoyment for me when I write the review. However, systems 22 will be having its 3rd losing month in a row this month which is most disappointing for one of my best systems. I've had a quick look this morning and system 22 is sitting with a 37% draw strike rate in 2011. Amazing really considering it is over a sample size of 110 bets but then again, 110 bets can hardly be described as a large sample!
My best hope is that the systems stop hitting so many draws and simply go back to somewhere near the long-term trend for draws. Over the last 3 months, the number of home wins have been bang in line with the long-term average. Unfortunately, the away win % is down by 6 points each month on average which is being eaten up by the draw. Over two thirds of the bets my systems find are away bets, so when this sort of run happens in the short-term, there isn't a lot I can do about it but hold tight!
Anyway, there are some midweek games in England on Tuesday/Wednesday this week, so I'll be back later with the bets for those.
Thanks for the comments on here and across at the TFA forum regarding the DNB/DC analysis. The weekend was a good example of what can happen with these systems and the draw, so it was good timing from me in that respect to write the post this weekend!
Hi,
ReplyDeleteThe £75 subscription fee seems high now with the poor results. What are your feelings on this?
Ryan
Hi Ryan.
ReplyDeleteWhat are you talking about? All of this is free and you don't need to pay a subscription fee to follow the bets. Regardless of whether this is a fee or not next season, why would you follow the bets if they weren't profitable?
In addition, why would you dream of following any system that couldn't make a profit on the weekend of 25th March to 27th March? Clearly, any system that failed last weekend should be scrapped on the basis it is loss making!
Cheers,
Graeme
Hi Graeme - I was just wondering how much you charge for this...
ReplyDeleteHi Cassini.
ReplyDeleteYou might not have seen the mentions relating to this topic in some recent posts/comments but I'll mention it again.
When I started out on this project at the start of 2010, my intention was to spend 9 months building something to work and then spend the 2010/11 season testing that it works. I've got all the bets proofed this season from when the systems went 'live' and they are being followed by a bunch of guys in a forum as well as a bunch of people on an email distribution list I set up at the start of the season but this is all free of charge. Obviously, that does raise the question of the return I've made so far for 16 months work. Well, as I've alluded to at various points on the blog, I've followed all my systems this season with my own personal betting bank.
The guys across at the TFA forum (the guys who were with me when I stopped the horseracing service in 2009) know a lot more detail about the way I've played the bets this season and staking etc. and it was never my intention to share this on the blog. In addition, I don't want the blog to be about my P&L on a weekly basis as the systems stand up on their own without me saying how much I won/lost following them.
FWIW, I had 'very' profitable months in September, October, November, December, break-even in January, a large loss in February and a profitable March. I increased staking in January (seemed as good a time as any!) and that has resulted in me giving back more profits than I should have done in February but hopefully I can recoup that in March.
As I said the other day, I'm not sure what will happen long-term but one thing I have found is that doing all this work and then only using it myself would mean it is nearly impossible to justify the time and effort it takes me. I've staked nearly £80k this season so far (I'm playing with a £5k bank) and even with the profit I've made, I can't really justify the time and effort this season.
At the end of the day, if I can't make this work for myself, I don't have to do it.