Monday, 7 March 2011

Value Bets

I don’t want to write a long post here as it’s Monday night and Monday’s are always a busy day for me with juggling football stuff with work.

Someone asked a question today about how to find the ‘value’ bets from my systems. I suggest if anyone wants some background about this, they read my historical results post but in summary, all the value bets appear on system 6 and system 21. These are the two base systems using my ratings and therefore, every value bet appears on here.

To find all the value bets in any set of fixtures, you would just look at system 6 and system 21 and pick out each game that appears.

The question is…. do I recommend anyone following all of the value bets? Quite simply, the answer is NO!

Firstly, there are too many bets and secondly, the whole point of having so many systems is to allow me to narrow down the value bets to get my best bets.

If you look at the season’s results or even the historical results, system 6 and system 21 aren’t the best systems to follow and therefore, why would you follow systems that aren’t going to give you the best results? I see system 6 and 21 as a way to show all the value bets but as for following these systems, I don’t suggest anyone do this.

Hence, why would anyone follow system 6 when systems 7 and 8 are better and likewise, why follow system 21 when systems 22 and 23 are better?

Taking that into account though, why follow systems 7/8/22/23 when systems 7-21 etc. are better long-term?

The truth is, I don’t know which systems are the best to follow and that is the reason I’m tracking a lot of live systems this season. If I thought I knew which system I should follow, I’d only have one system but so far, I’m still not sure which system or group of systems should be followed to maximise returns.

The below picture shows how the TFA ratings have performed in past seasons and also shows the impact the recent run has had on my systems. February was the worst month the ratings have ever had but they have bounced back already this month, so I’m hoping February was a blip!

The data in this picture doesn’t include Saturday’s results but I don’t have my spreadsheets fully updated yet after the weekend. It was a small losing day for my ratings though.

Any questions, get in touch.


  1. Hi Graeme,

    Good to see you back. I would like to exchange links with you. Take a look at our blog and see what you think.

    All the best,

  2. Hi Graeme
    I've just found your blog. I don't know how I have missed it before.

    Anyway I'm pleased that I have now found you and I have added a link from my blog.

    I will be following with interest because I for one know what exceptional results you are capable of.

    Good luck

  3. Hi Jason.

    It's nice to be back blogging again. I've added a link to your blog mate.

    In case you take any offence to my post the other day about the blogs I regularly read, I can honestly say that your blog is a must read during the flat season and I've been reading it for the past couple of seasons. I struggle these days to get much time to look at your blog postings during the winter months but I was planning on adding your blog in a few weeks when the flat season returned anyway. I always look forward to the Brocklesby meeting each year as it usually signifies when I can start making money on the racing! I find the winter months very tough. :(

    Good luck for the flat season ahead and I look forward to receiving your selections as usual via email & text. :)



  4. Hi Mark.

    You would have struggled to find my blog I guess mate as I wasn't going out my way to publicise it. Apart from a bunch of the TFA forum guys who follow the footie bets, work colleagues and friends, not many knew I was looking at the football this season and I was simply using this blog as a way to track my progress. After what happened with the TFA racing and the pressure that put me under at times, I wanted a peaceful time to get my new footie systems developed in the TFA forum and proofed externally for a bit before allowing others to see what I've been working on.

    You've seen the results closer than most as many of us in the forum have been on a rollercoaster this season at times as these systems have been inconsistent on a weekly basis but ultimately, the systems are proving profitable and that's what my intention was when I set out.

    I'll hopefully be able to develop a strategy for following the bets for next season that will be profitable for all of us following.