I don’t want to write a long post here as it’s Monday night and Monday’s are always a busy day for me with juggling football stuff with work.
Someone asked a question today about how to find the ‘value’ bets from my systems. I suggest if anyone wants some background about this, they read my historical results post but in summary, all the value bets appear on system 6 and system 21. These are the two base systems using my ratings and therefore, every value bet appears on here.
To find all the value bets in any set of fixtures, you would just look at system 6 and system 21 and pick out each game that appears.
The question is…. do I recommend anyone following all of the value bets? Quite simply, the answer is NO!
Firstly, there are too many bets and secondly, the whole point of having so many systems is to allow me to narrow down the value bets to get my best bets.
If you look at the season’s results or even the historical results, system 6 and system 21 aren’t the best systems to follow and therefore, why would you follow systems that aren’t going to give you the best results? I see system 6 and 21 as a way to show all the value bets but as for following these systems, I don’t suggest anyone do this.
Hence, why would anyone follow system 6 when systems 7 and 8 are better and likewise, why follow system 21 when systems 22 and 23 are better?
Taking that into account though, why follow systems 7/8/22/23 when systems 7-21 etc. are better long-term?
The truth is, I don’t know which systems are the best to follow and that is the reason I’m tracking a lot of live systems this season. If I thought I knew which system I should follow, I’d only have one system but so far, I’m still not sure which system or group of systems should be followed to maximise returns.
The below picture shows how the TFA ratings have performed in past seasons and also shows the impact the recent run has had on my systems. February was the worst month the ratings have ever had but they have bounced back already this month, so I’m hoping February was a blip!
The data in this picture doesn’t include Saturday’s results but I don’t have my spreadsheets fully updated yet after the weekend. It was a small losing day for my ratings though.
Any questions, get in touch.