Monday, 11 April 2011

Backing the draw?

You can tell I've had a little bit of spare time today!

Greg asked another question which I thought was quite interesting. The crux of his query was, how much profit/loss would you make from backing the draw in all these games that are defined as value?

My initial reply is in the comments section to his question but simply, I expect it to be loss making as if there is an edge backing the team I think is value, there can't be an edge backing the draw as well! Clearly, in a short-term period, you can make money backing the draw and I thought this was probably the case over the recent period.

Now I've had time to look at it and analyse it a little, the recent results are worth highlighting.

Firstly, backing the draw isn't a way to make money based on my ratings. That isn't to say that they can't be used to make money as I could backfit my data to try to maximise the draw returns but based on the fittings at the moment, you will lose if you solely back the draw.

However, the results from this season are different to the preceding years. In the first half of this season, things were in line with the long-term and backing the draw would have lost you 185pts from September to December. Nothing too unusual there.

In the period from 1st January to 11th April (today!), you would have made a profit of 188pts!

Looking back, I can't see a spell like this one during the past 4 and a bit seasons. I'm fed up going on about the draw and clearly, this all just fits in with the DNB analysis and so on as it's all the same data just cut a different way but before making any decisions about how I use the systems next season, it's important that I don't get too caught up with what has happened in the last few months. Yeah, it hasn't been pretty and the systems have made no profits in 2011 but then again, it's unlikely this run is going to continue for much longer based on the previous 13,000 bets the systems have had. Either that or I've developed a system to help me win the pools!

Here's the numbers for those geeky readers.

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