One thing that has become clear to me this season has been the thin line between success and failure when you are betting on the football.
This afternoon at 4.40pm, I was looking at a small profit on the footie and given the way the current run had been going, a small profit wasn’t a disaster. I was again looking at the number of draws and thinking to myself, “this can’t continue, can it?” I said in my last post that something had to give this weekend and thankfully, a late goal in the Villa game and a late goal in the Huddersfield game turned both these games from draws into away wins.
I was left waiting on Hearts to score a winner for a multiple bet to come in but I was maybe looking for too much there with another late goal.
Overall, it was a decent enough day on the footie and it is long overdue this month.
In total, there were 16 games where a team represented value. I ended up with 7 wins, 5 losses and 4 draws. 25% strike rate is the long-term average for draws and therefore, I can’t complain. It was a profit of 3.2pts which is an ROI of 20%.
The systems had 38 bets which returned 27 wins, 7 losses and only 4 draws. Much more like it thankfully and a draw rate of only 10.5% on the systems. This brings the overall draw rate down to 35% for this month which is still the second highest month ever (behind February 2011). Hopefully the next few weeks can see the draw % fall further which will allow the systems to win back some of the losses from earlier this month.
For the record, the 38 system bets made a profit of 29pts today for an ROI of 76%.
Draw No Bets made a profit of 16pts today on the systems and Double Chance made a profit of 5.5pts.
After this weekend, the systems remain 32pts down so far this month. There is still a fair bit to go this month, so we’ll see if they can possibly get somewhere back to break-even on the month. Given they lost 55pts on the first day this month, -30pts isn’t a disaster at the moment!
Interestingly, DNB is down 6.5pts this month now (was -29pts earlier this month) and DC is down 9.7pts now (was -26pts earlier this month). Both are fighting back well and for next season’s possible strategy, I really hope to see DNB continue on the road to recovery this month. DNB has only had 5 losing months in 44 past months, so I would like to see it make another profit this month after a disaster of a start to this month!
There seemed a lot of goals about today which definitely helped things turn in my favour and I hope this trend can continue over the next few weeks. I definitely feel that when there are goals around, it helps the profitability of my ratings in the long-term.
I’ll be back in midweek as there are 12 games and then there is obviously the busy weekend next week with it being the Bank Holiday, so there will be plenty of action there too I think.
I'll do a post in midweek with an update of the season totals on the systems. I've had a few comments asking and two are from people who are accusing me of not posting the season results as they are now so poor. Admittedly, I don't post the season results too often but they are all on here if people want to look for them themselves! I'll post them in midweek......