Sunday, 17 April 2011

Season's Results to 17th April

Just a quick post on the season’s results to date. Apologies to the anonymous poster who asked me yesterday for these results. I find it hard at times to read anonymous comments and decide whether it is being written by someone who has a genuine question to ask or whether it is some idiot trying to wind me up.

Being honest, the only reason I don’t look at the season’s results more often on here is because I tend to judge the systems on a monthly basis and therefore, my monthly reviews tend to cover everything I want to say about the systems. In addition, I tend to look at my own P&L on a monthly basis and always have done for a while, so I tend to not care too much about the season’s results so far.

Anyway, for those interested in the results on all the single bet systems this season, here are the results.

The returns have taken a massive hit in 2011 but then again, it has been a redistribution of profits between the traditional H/A betting and Draw No Bet betting. The number of draws after Christmas has meant it has been very difficult to make money backing each of the selections to win but by covering the draw, things have been OK after Christmas. Unfortunately, I didn’t think of this before it happened, so no one has been covering the draw (myself included!)

At the end of the day, I believe an ROI of 10% or so on football is highly acceptable and this is being achieved on all the systems from 6-21 to 8-22 and it is also being achieved on system 8 and system 22.

Systems 6,7 and 21 have lower ROI’s but they’ve all won an OK number of points I think, so although they have been disappointing in the main, it isn’t a disaster.

System 9 and system 23 are the two most selective systems and both are basically breaking even this season which is disappointing.

Overall, from a sample of 2,556 bets, the systems have made a return of 10.8%.

Looking at Draw No Bets, many of the systems have beaten the returns from traditional H/A betting. Systems 6,7,8,9,21,22 and 23 have done better with covering the draw rather than backing H/A outright. Systems 6-21 and 6-22 also have this characteristic.

Interestingly, systems 7-21,7-22,8-21 and 8-22 have done slightly better with traditional H/A betting than DNB but these are the strongest systems I have historically, so maybe this isn’t too surprising.

Overall though, DNB has produced a profit of 321pts and an ROI of 12.6%.

I don’t want to look at DC betting too much but a return of 6% has still been achieved which isn’t bad considering it hasn’t been a great season!

Looking forward to next season, I’ll be dropping system 9 and system 23 as they don’t produce enough bets each season for them to be viable to follow.

By dropping these systems, it will mean I’m left with 11 systems that will all have enough bets each season for any of them to be followed as a standalone system if someone only wants to follow one system for example.

I'm still in two minds about the systems 16-20. These are multiple bet systems which basically use the bets on the single bet systems to form multiple bets. The backtested results looked very good but only two of the 5 systems are making profits this season. 3 of the systems are losing.

Here's the results for this season:

Looking at the results, it doesn’t look too bad as it won’t take much for these systems to turn around and if following all the multiple bet systems, it has been an OK season but compared to the past seasons, it has been very poor. Obviously, this is linked to the fact that the single bet systems have had a poor season.

I’m not sure what I’ll do about these systems next season. I might keep one going or two going but drop the others.

A few people have sent me emails enquiring about plans for next season. I’m still unclear about what I’m doing next season but I’ve already got a long list of things I need to do this summer. A few highlights are:

1). I’ll be rebuilding the algorithm on systems 21-23. It has a few flaws in it I think and they’ve shone through as the season has progressed. I know what I think I need to do to fix them but it will take a good few hours to rebuild this. Of course, the fundamental variable won’t change in the algorithm but I’ll be adjusting the weightings. Hence, it won’t invalidate the historical results at all but it should improve the future results I hope!

2). I’ll be tweaking the algorithm on systems 6-9. This will be a tiny change but I now have 3 season’s results that involve no backfitting, so I want to try to analyse the results and see what works and what doesn’t work. I won’t change it too much but there are one or two things I want to analyse in more depth, so if I find anything, I might change a couple of weightings in the model.

3). I’m seriously thinking of building a new algorithm. I’m coming around to the idea of Draw No Bets and I’m thinking it would be quite interesting to look at building an algorithm to maximise DNB profits. This would change the type of teams I’d be backing as you could have teams at 4/1+ away from home that aren’t worth following as they draw too many games for them to be profitable but by doing them DNB, they could be worth following. It takes me around 4 weeks work to build an algorithm using backfitting of data and then backtesting the results for the other data I have. If I do go ahead and do this, I would probably not test it live next season but behind closed doors. I’d get it proofed but not post the results as I’m always wary of giving out bets that aren’t proven to be profitable. This season was a one-off but next season, I want judged on the systems that are proven from this season. Not a new set of systems!

4). I want to look at maybe building a system to pick out the best 4 or 5 bets each weekend to bet on. This is a unique idea but it would probably involve a mixture of DNB’s, DC’s and traditional H/A bets. It might take into account things like seasonality, variable staking and anything else I can think of! Not sure if I have the time or inclination to do this as it would mean I end up getting judged on this one system I suspect and there would be no guarantee it beats my other systems!

That’s the 4 main things I want to look at this summer but as always, it depends on how much time I can set aside. With no football taking place and with a fair bit of time to take off work, I reckon I can do a fair bit this summer in time for next season.

Apologies if it feels like I'm not giving more away about my plans next season but I honestly haven't made up my mind yet what I'll do. I'll no doubt post it on here when I decide.

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