Monday, 1 April 2013

March 2013 Review

Well, I said I enjoyed writing the monthly review last month and although March hasn’t been anywhere near as good, it’s been good enough to allow me to enjoy writing this review I think. In particular, one set of systems have had an amazing month and given everyone knows that I want these systems to succeed long-term, I think this is a great first step towards another one of my aims with these systems.

I personally have had another stunning month with my own betting portfolioi (3 highly profitable months in a row) and quite simply, if I end the season with the same £ amount of profit I’ve made at the moment, it has been a very, very good season for me. Hasn’t been the smoothest of journeys as I’ve already said but at the end of the day, once you reach your profit target in this game, I don’t think you should beat yourself up about how you got there.  

Anyway, this isn’t meant to be about me, it’s meant to be about the systems.  Here’s the review for March 2013.

Est Systems

These systems had their best ever month last month since the systems went live but they have followed that spectacular month with errr….a nothing month. By nothing, I mean a very uneventful month, no massive highs, no massive lows, just a quiet month. Overall, a profit of 5.1pts from 396 bets.  An ROI of 1.3%.

The biggest profit on a system was 4.3pts on 7-21 and the biggest loss was 5.8pts on 21 and 6-21. Don’t see this happening too often (maybe the first time since the systems went live?) but every bet on system 21 has appeared on 6-21 this month. Interestingly, the extra bets on system 6 hit 8 winners from 12 bets amazingly, so 6 had a small profit this month as a result.

6-21 had a poor month I think but the combined systems overall managed a very small profit of 3.7pts from 160 bets.

I think it was pleasing to see that even though my ratings haven’t had a good month on these algorithms, a few of the higher combined systems had a decent month.  System 7-22 has managed a profit again this month which follows on from a really good month last month. A profit of 4.1pts from 13 bets is an ROI of 31.6% this month which isn’t bad!

7-21 did a good job in narrowing down the 6-21 bets as it turned a loss into a profit but 8-21 didn’t build on 7-21. 7-22 built on 6-22 but 8-22 didn’t build on 7-22.

Overall, it’s hard to draw too many conclusions from a month like this as the higher combined systems didn’t really have enough bets to look at the trends of how the bets appeared on the higher systems.

If this month was being reviewed in the context of the first two seasons, I would probably say it has been a really poor month but in the context of this season, this month hasn’t been too bad at all. It is the second profitable month in a row and at least consolidates the hugely profitable month we saw last month.

Ultimately, whether or not these systems end the season in profit still hangs in the balance. I really hope they can build on this and finish the season strongly but as always, we’ll see what happens. Given the performance of some of the other TFA systems this season, I suspect this will be the last season where we see so much focus on these Established Systems. I expect there are better systems in the TFA system portfolio these days.

New Systems

Another very solid month for these systems and their 6th profitable month from 7 months of live results. This month didn’t ever appear to be a spectacular month at all and yet, we saw a profit of 52.7pts from 630 bets. An ROI of 8.4%.

The third algorithm I ever built was System 31 and it has had an amazing month this month.  A profit of 30.1pts from 121 bets. System 41 actually had a really poor month in comparison and this algorithm suffered a loss of 13pts from 127 bets.

Quite amazing that two DNB algorithms I’ve built could have such a varying degree of success in a single month! Basically, if we analyse the results of 31-41, we can see that system 31 had 24 more bets than 31-41 and yet, it created a profit of 31.8pts from these 24 games!

I remember saying last season that I hoped the 3rd algorithm could prove to be one of my best algorithms and yet, it was always in the shadow of system 6 and 21 last season. This season, it has been in the shadow of system 41 for the main part but after this month, system 31 is standing out as the best performing algorithm at the moment. Being honest, system 21 and 41 aren’t too far behind but still, system 31 is having a storming season and has just had an amazing month.

Although system 41 struggled this month, the strength of the ratings weren’t bad and system 42 had a 7.9% ROI this month. Not bad considering it was picking games from a sample that had lost 10%!

Although 31-41 made a small loss, the other 5 combined systems made a profit and the 6 combined systems made a profit of 23pts from 256 bets. Not great but it does build on the performance of the season to date. Not every month can be a massive month, even for these systems!

Misc Systems

Have I ever told you that I love the STO systems and they are my best systems? Well, yeah, I told you all last season and unfortunately, they were shit last season! Anyway, they’ve repaid my faith many times over this season and they have contributed to another decent profit for the Misc systems this month.

A profit of 44.3pts from 336 bets is a really good return. 55.2pts profit from 150pts for the STO systems and a loss of 10.9pts for the other 3 systems.

The star of the show was STOZ this month which somehow created a profit of 29.2pts from 64 bets! Amazingly, the AH returns were also massive this month and when the system wasn’t hitting winners, it was hitting teams who draw which meant it wasn’t too far away from an even better month I think.

The results for STOZ this season now are just unreal and admittedly, I always thought the order of the 3 STO systems would be STOY, STOX and then STOZ but STOZ did best last season and has also done best this season. Just shows what I know!

I guess if I was picking the system of the season now, STOZ would probably be it although I honestly can’t remember what sort of betting bank I suggested for these systems if following them individually, so it may be that there are other systems with a higher ROC this season. We’ll find out at the season end as that’s when I’ll be reviewing all the systems and we can do some comparisons.

Last season, this set of systems had 5 winning months and 4 losing months over the season. This season so far, 6 profitable months and 1 losing month. Not too sure what went wrong last season (well I do know, all the aways were draws instead of wins as the Homes did well!) but this season has seen a big improvement. I’ve mocked myself a few times for some of the quotes I’ve used about these systems when I first created them as I honestly thought they could be the best systems I’d created but I changed my mind after the first season obviously! Maybe I wasn’t too far out?

Under/Over Systems

A loss of 3.6pts from 41 bets. Started the month amazingly well, 5.5pts profit from the first 22 bets. 9.1pts loss from the next 26 bets. Says it all, they flatter to deceive. I hate these systems.

Euro Systems

Finally, these systems produce something that mirrors the backtested results I spent all Summer discussing on the blog. My record at building systems with an edge is probably as good as anyone who’s ever looked at football betting in a number of years I suspect but until this month, I was scratching my head about these 4 European Leagues.

So far, the systems haven’t been a disaster but going into this month, they were showing a small loss overall. I’d already made my mind up that I was going to have to start from scratch again in the Summer and have a second shot at trying to crack these European leagues as I honestly thought I’d built a dud set of rating algorithms here.

As it stands, it may well be true that I have built a dud set of rating algorithms as the base ratings aren’t showing any sort of significant edge but thankfully, when I cross refer the algorithms, we’ve seen some amazing results this month.

Overall, it was a profit of 161.7pts from 464 bets. An ROI of 34.8%! The 6 combined systems made a profit of 86.6pts from 191 bets at an ROI of 50%!

I guess the reason we’ve seen these results this month is down to my ratings finally coming good in these leagues. Algorithm one made a 20.5pts profit from 83 bets and algorithm two made a profit of 17.9pts from 92 bets.  It’s easy to make profits when your ratings are doing well and we’ve seen that this month I think.

Some of the ROI’s on the combined systems are just mad and E2-E7 (the equivalent system to 7-22) managed to hit 14 winners from 24 bets with an average odds of 3.50. Not easy to do I think. A profit of 21.4pts from 24 bets and a stunning result.

It’s hard to knock these systems after the month like this but the question has to be….where the hell have they been all season?

I exchange emails with a few members regularly about these systems and I read the blogs of those following and it’s safe to say that those following probably had more faith in these Euro systems than I did. I hadn’t lost faith completely but knowing how good I am at building ratings and systems, I was disappointed with myself that I’d finally failed and I appeared to had built a shit set of systems for these European leagues.

It’s still early days and the jury is still out but possibly, we may have just been seeing a fair bit of variance so far this season and although this month isn’t going to be repeated, it may be the case that once we get to the end of the season, we conclude that overall, this season hasn’t been a disaster for these systems. Of course, we could see a couple of losing months to end the season and we deduce that these systems are rubbish, they’ve fluked this amazing once in a lifetime month and overall, they have no edge.  We’ll see what happens.


Well, the month of March may not be as good as Feb but it’s not bad as well I think. A profit of 260.2pts from 1,874 bets which is an ROI of 13.9%. 

Given the Est Systems didn’t have that great a month, I get a feeling some reading this may be a little disappointed that they’ve not caught some of the profits on the other systems but I think we need to continue to think long-term at this game. I overlooked the New Systems this season and with hindsight, it was maybe an error but then again, why jump in with both feet on a set of new systems with no live results? Likewise, I know lots of people are watching the Euro systems and hoping these prove the real deal for going forward and this month is the first step on that journey I think.

I suspect EVERYONE is now sitting up and taking notice of the STO systems and therefore, although some people may not be making the best use of the service at the moment, these systems aren’t going anywhere. I’m going to have to do a few tweaks to the service and some of the ratings and systems need tweaks here and there I think and we’ll look at that this Summer. However, the future looks pretty bright I think……..


  1. You mentioned before that you had been signed onto betadvisor. With the season coming to an end will you still be with betadvisor next season and if so will there be any impact on how you run your own service? Thanks in advance for any answer.

  2. Hi Anon.

    As I’ve always said since I started this blog, my main priority will always be my own betting. I’ll then try to help others and therefore, my service comes a close 2nd. Bet Advisor will always be 3rd in the chain I’m afraid.

    If I’m being honest, I don’t know what is happening going forward with Bet Advisor and therefore, I can’t say for certain what will happen with the service in terms of number of subscribers etc.

    What I would say is that playing on Bet Advisor is like me playing with one hand tied behind my back at times. They try their best to do things to help tipsters control their losses for example by limiting stakes during a bad run but to be honest, for someone like me following a 100% automated system, all this does is make it harder to win back losses. They also limit the number of bets which again I understand why they do this (cap the max exposure at any one time) but quite often, I’d rather give out 10 bets one weekend and no bets the next weekend. Instead, I have to give out 5 bets max in a weekend and this is a pain for my system as I need to pick and choose the bets even though it is meant to be automated.

    The biggest issue for the system on there is just the odds. I only use Pinnacle/SBO on there and AH lines only (no match odds) and therefore, my quoted returns are easily achievable and beatable if I’m honest. Not only that, given that the odds are always gone on most of the bets from my own subscribers backing them, then the odds are usually about 10%-20% less than what my subscribers can achieve through the main service. Hence, combine all this together and I think I’m pleased I’m making any sort of profit on Bet Advisor!

    Of course, as a result of all this, I’m never going to have many subscribers on Bet Advisor and therefore, I probably need to question whether or not it is worth my time and effort. As of today, I’m up 357.5pts on there from 9,520pts staked, so an ROI of 3.75%. Pretty good given the constraints and the fact it is beatable if using best prices etc. but compared to others on there, I look below average.

    I hoped I could turn a profit of around 10% on Bet Advisor but I think that’s outside of my reach given the constraints. Hence, if I can only make 5% ROI long-term say, I’m not exactly going to stand out on Bet Advisor.

    When I signed the agreement with Bet Advisor, I closed the service and haven’t let any new members join. Given this just limits my income, it was never going to be the best move I’ve ever made but I wanted a shot at Bet Advisor. I suspect to continue on Bet Advisor, I’ll need to be allowed to increase the membership size a little this Summer with my own service and then I’ll give Bet Advisor another go next season.

    In terms of pricing etc. I’ll sit down this Summer and decide what I want to do going forward. Anyone who has been with the service 3 seasons has paid around £175 in total for subscription fees and given I’m probably supplying the best football bets in the market over this timeframe, I think long-term subscribers probably owe me a little more than I owe them! Therefore, I’ll need to think long and hard about subscription fees and what I do etc.

    Another consideration is my own betting and I’m now reaching the stage where I’m making a significant income from playing these bets. Therefore, I continue to want to put more time and effort into this aspect and therefore, that may mean the service suffers. At the moment, a lot if unclear in my head but it’s easier to think these things through in the Summer.

    All I would say is that the service next season will continue to be the best value for money service in the market by a LONG way as that’s something that I really believe in. I also hope it continues to be the most profitable!