Tuesday, 2 April 2013

Patience Rewarded.....

One of the first rules I learnt in my first season of following the systems was how dangerous it is to move between systems mid-season. The other rule I learnt in the first season was how dangerous it is increasing stakes during the season and therefore, it is probably the two rules I’ve drilled into subscribers the most over the last couple of seasons.  Some still ignore my point on staking and use compound staking and this season is probably the first season where it has worked well as the second half of the season has been better than the first half!

However, that’s not to say that you shouldn’t continue to re-evaluate your current portfolio of systems during the season and if you feel like you don’t have enough diversification or if you feel you are overstaking for example, my advice would always to be to readjust your portfolio but quite simply, don’t just jump from one system to another because results look better. The grass always looks greener elsewhere at the betting game I find!

I know from email correspondence over the Christmas period that quite a few people who were heavily weighted towards system 7-22 for example got a little spooked by the slow start this season and decided to increase their workload and follow more systems. Thankfully, as system 7-22 has improved over the season, so have many of the other systems and therefore, it’s been impossible to lose money since Christmas time I think following the systems. Hence, even those who decided to follow more systems and reduce stakes hopefully haven’t done too badly as a result.

Anyway, the reason for this post is to point any readers to the blog written by Steve across at Daily 25. This is the first season Steve has followed the bets from my systems and I’m sure at various points over the season, he’s wondered what all the fuss has been about and why this blog is littered with badges proclaiming to be a decent sports tipster!

One criticism that is often thrown my way regarding the service is that it is too complicated. Too many systems, too many bets and how the hell can anyone maximise profits with the service?

I really get annoyed when people say this to me (I reckon it’s because it has been said so many times now!) but basically, I supply the bets for each system and all anyone has to do is decide which systems to follow in their TFA portfolio. It’s like a pick and mix of systems. Looking at the returns of the various systems over the first 2 seasons (and very nearly 3 seasons now), no matter what you do with the systems, you should be able to make money!

Getting back to Steve’s blog. Steve made the decision this year to follow 5 Est systems and 5 Euro systems with lower stakes. Given the New Systems and Misc Systems have done better this season so far, Steve has basically picked from the worst two sample sets of systems I am running at the moment. However, his reasoning was sound since the Est Systems had the best results coming into this season and the Euro systems probably had the biggest potential coming into this season.

How has Steve done so far this season? I’m sure Steve won’t mind me copying his results from his last post and sharing them here……

 As you can see, a very decent return and even though Steve hasn’t been following the best systems this season, I’m sure he’s fairly happy about his returns. An 11% ROI at the moment is pretty damn good considering it’s to Steve’s prices and I think from reading between the lines, he only uses Betfair and a small selection of bookmakers.

I think that’s the point I’ve raised over and over on the blog and also to subscribers. No one is ever going to build a portfolio of my systems that creates the maximum amount of profit that can be achieved. That’s not the point. The point of my systems is that it allows you to create a portfolio of systems to meet your requirements and hopefully, these systems will do well and you will make money.

I’ve been saying all season that this season has been the toughest season to date and the results have been disappointing. I know for a fact that some services would bite my hand off to get my results this season. Yes, it hasn’t been as good as the first two seasons and I’m sure people are disappointed by this but at the end of the day, if the game was that easy, we’d all be retired by now!

The best advert for the systems I have aren’t the systems results, it isn’t the money I make following the systems, it isn’t the list of honours the service has won and it most certainly isn’t me. The best advert for my systems and the service is the money that other people make following my bets.

Anyway, I hope that shows what can be done using my systems. I will probably share an update of my own portfolio on the blog at the season end but I tend to steer clear from discussing my own results on the blog as I don’t want it to be seen as trying to show what can be achieved. I’m not a fan of using the blog for advertising and this would be a step too far I think!

Next update should be tomorrow evening as I have some games in the Championship tonight.

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