Wednesday, 15 February 2012

A bad night...or was it?

I always find it hard to write a review after a night like last night. I lost money last night (only a small sum thankfully!) and anyone following the systems would have lost money last night, so it feels wrong to say it wasn’t a bad night but when I look at the results, I can’t help but feel it wasn’t a bad night!

Only one bet made it onto systems 7 and 8 and only one bet made it onto system 22, so basically, there were a lot of bets last night but none were really high value as I said before the games. Hence, I can’t get too annoyed when I see that the results weren’t great. What did I expect?

It’s a strange one as if last night turned out to be a great night, I’d have been really annoyed that more bets didn’t appear on more systems and it would have been an opportunity missed. Hence, when it goes badly, should I be saying the systems did a great job in reducing the exposure on the night? I tend to think so. Systems 7-22 and 8-22 had a great night last night in comparison to other systems. Why do these systems have ROI’s above 25% over the last season and a half? They manage to dodge nights like last night!

Anyway, onto more important matters, the results for the systems that did have bets.

Algorithm one had 14 bets, 4 winners, 4 draws and 6 losers. It managed to catch 2 good away winners which helps limit the losses though. A loss of 2.61pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.79pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 12 bets, 3 winners, 4 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 3.92pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.14pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 10 bets, 3 winners, 2 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 0.41pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.11pts for DNB.

As usual, the system bets are what we are mostly interested in.

The established systems made a loss of 15.45pts for H/A betting and a loss of 10.07pts for DNB. Considering the poor performance of the first two algorithms, it could have been a lot worse than this if the systems had more bets!

The newer systems made a loss of 7.41pts for H/A betting and a loss of 5.79pts for DNB.

The newer systems were helped by the fact TOX and STOY managed to make a profit on the night (which was very difficult to do!). These 3 SMG systems remain an enigma to me in the sense they do seem to do well when my other systems struggle but they do badly when my other systems do well. One thing I will look at in the summer is seeing if these systems reduce the variance if combined with other systems. I expect they probably dovetail the other systems well but I’ve no evidence tbh.

Anyway, that’s it for this midweek. After the weekend and midweek games, February is loss making across the majority of systems and it starts to open up the possibility of a losing month. I sort of feel like the systems are due a losing month as it’s been a long-time since September although it has felt much more difficult since the end of November. December wasn’t great and neither was January, so hopefully February can get back on track this weekend.

No comments:

Post a Comment