Here’s the bets for this weekend. Another action packed weekend and if it goes badly, I’ll be throwing my toys out of the pram I suspect.
I think it’s actually the case that the combined systems are papering over the cracks at the moment. System 6-21 is on course for its worst losing month ever (including all backtesting) and it has become nearly impossible to find away winners in the last few weeks. Considering 80% of my bets are aways, it means it has been impossible to win recently.
Looking at this weekend, there is a strong bias towards aways as usual and I can really do with a few winning to get the show back on the road.
Of course, it’s not all doom and gloom as systems 6-22 to 8-22 are doing an amazing job at keeping things pretty stable but they need some help from system 6-21. You can’t keep hitting a couple of winners from 15 bets on system 6-21 and relying on system 7-21 to hit the couple of winners! It isn’t a miracle worker.
The base algorithms are finding it very tough at the moment due to the sudden home bias that has appeared, so hopefully things get back to normality sooner rather than later!
Good luck.
The Football Analyst Bets for 25th-27th February
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Bury v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.00 2.14
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74
System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74
System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90 Old Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74 Old Criteria
System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria
System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90 Old Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74 Old Criteria
Hi Graeme
ReplyDeleteWith your bets looking for away wins, presumably you've looked at each league on a month-by-month basis on past results to determine whether home wins or away wins fluctuate over the course of a season? For example, do you expect there to be less draws as the seasons get towards the end, with teams looking more urgently for positive results to climb into the top four slots or avoid the bottom four?
Hi Eddie.
ReplyDeleteYou've written that comment as if you know something that I don't, so I'd be keen to hear your thoughts. :)
I tested out a lot of things (every variable that can be analysed in a game basically) back when I first started out building the first rating algorithm in early 2010 and I did have this sort of idea to look for these sort of trends. Nothing was statistically significant that I could see in terms of trends of win/away/draw %. Likewise, any season that has a high number of homes or aways in the first half doesn't mean that the second half will be the same or the opposite.
I think I probably touched on it in my recent post when I said the ratings can never take into account the psychological impact that might become apparent late on in the season. Quite simply, the bookies start underpricing teams who have more to play for and therefore, my ratings end up highlighting the opposition as value. Long-term though, I know that there is still great value there to be had as the return in the second half of the season is still well above 10% historically. Unfortunately, this is well down on the 20%+ that is usually achieved in the first half of the season.
I think it's just important that people are aware of this which is why I highlight it constantly. All it means is that you'd never increase stakes as the season progresses and of course, never start following in the second half of the season. Stick to these two rules and you should achieve a good return over the season I expect each season.
The last thing I should mention is that the systems get sucked into backing teams at much higher prices as the season approaches the climax which in turn, increases the variance. That's why I discussed AH betting the other day and is why I'll be introducing this next season as an option. I don't really like backing away teams at 4/1+ away from home due to the increased volatility. That's all we're seeing at the moment, increased variance.
Hope this makes sense.
Graeme
Unbelievable how do we join for next season
ReplyDeleteBellerophone
Hi Bellerophone. (Is that really a Greek name or a made up name?)
ReplyDeleteNot sure if anything was too unbelievable this weekend really as it was a good weekend but I've had better this season! As I've said to other recent posters, any plans for next season are still being developed, so you can't join for next season at the moment.
As soon as I know what's happening next season, I'll share it on the blog.
Graeme
Hi Graeme, a good weekend with one match to go, well done.
ReplyDeleteCan I clarify your odds, ignoring the DNB odds for now...
if you say 2.75 for Southport, is that 2.75/1 or 1.75/1
TIA
Hi Dartguru.
ReplyDeleteThe odds quoted are as you say. 2.75 is really 1.75/1. Hence, a profit of 1.75 on the bet.
As I’ve said before, the odds quoted are the odds at the time I release the bets to email subscribers and not the time of the blog posting clearly. As you will no doubt have noticed this weekend (especially with Hibs and Southport in particular), the odds shortened a fair bit from the odds quoted and if I’m honest, they continued to shorten all the way to kick-off. Hibs were a significant market mover this weekend on the footie as anyone using shot supremacy ratings had to find Hibs as a bet IMO as they were playing much better than it looked on paper and Killie were playing much worse than it looked, so it was the perfect game really. Just annoyed Hibs didn’t appear on even more systems!
Cheers,
Graeme
I don´t get it. Where can I subscribe for the rest of the season for your picks?
ReplyDeleteRegards
JAn
Hi Jan.
ReplyDeleteYou can't subscribe for the rest of this season. The service is closed. It will open up once the season has finished.
In the meantime, the bets appear on the blog at 6pm every Friday UK Time and 9am every Tuesday UK time.
Hope this makes sense.
Graeme
Well ok I will take the service for free the rest of the season. No problem :)
ReplyDelete