Wednesday, 29 February 2012

Results Update

I’ll try my best to not rant on too much considering I need to write a review for the month next and no doubt I’ll cover this topic again but I reckon the last two games just about sum up this month for me. It has been a horrible, horrible month and apart from the 3 bad losing months the systems have had, this has easily been the least enjoyable month for me. I’m sure part of it is due to the fact I returned from my honeymoon and threw myself straight back into it (maybe a longer break would have been better!) but either way, it has been horrible this month.

Saturday was actually quite a good day and if one or two goals had gone my way, I’d have been in record breaking territory I suspect for most points won in a day! Macclesfield couldn’t hang onto a 1-0 lead against Oxford at odds of 7.50, so that alone would have probably been enough to make it an exceptional day. There were a few other draws in there for big priced aways though and as always, it’s a thin line with these types. A draw turning into a win is a massive swing but unfortunately, it didn’t happen for many of them.

It did happen for Nottingham Forest though who were selected to beat Birmingham and one of the biggest games as of the weekend was Hibs away to Kilmarnock. They won easily and these two results ensured it was never going to be a losing day. The fact that Notts County managed to win too as the most picked team completed a decent day for the systems.

I was waiting on Crawley on Monday night. Having watched that game, I’m not quite sure how Crawley managed to lose as Shrewsbury didn’t really play well at all, struggled to muster a shot on goal and won 2-1! Disappointing really considering the way the game went.

Not quite as disappointing as last night though. Plymouth were quite a well selected low value bet against Macclesfield and from what I could make out, they played well. Unfortunately, they managed to concede in the 96th minute of the game with what was literally the last kick of the ball in the game. That again is a killer as instead of a substantial win, it’s a substantial loss for the systems and again, I think it sums up this month with away bets.

The only good thing to take from the month is that the P&L indicates it wasn’t quite as bad as it feels but sometimes at this game, the P&L lies! It is lying this month as it has been terrible and I reckon I’ve been very lucky to post a profit but I’ll take it. I’ll always take a profit if offered it, no matter how lucky I think it was!

Algorithm one had 18 bets. 6 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. A profit of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.75pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 18 bets, 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses. A profit of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.75pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 18 bets, 5 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. A loss of 0.18pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.81pts for DNB betting.

Overall, not a disaster for any of the algorithms which makes a change this month if I’m honest!

The systems did an OK job in using these bets.

The established systems made a profit of 27.41pts for H/A betting and a profit of 16.29pts for DNB.

The new systems made a profit of 8.79pts for H/A betting and a profit of 10.67pts for DNB.

Overall, a small profitable selection of games but it could and should have been much better.

The next post will be when the monthly review has been completed.

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